DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 13th)

Updated: December 14, 2018 at 4:07 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

The Corsica NHL betting predictions got back on track last night, correctly predicting the Islanders covering a +1.5-goal spread as the most probable bet on the slate. The Islanders were unable to get much going offensively but did limit the Golden Knights to just 17 shots on goal. A better performance from Robin Lehner would have certainly netted the Isles a win, but a one-goal loss was all they needed to cover the spread. Corsica missed on its highest value bet last night, though the high-value play always comes with some associated risk.

Tonight’s eight-game slate offers plenty of interesting spots to play. To help you narrow down your options, I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and most valuable bets below. Good luck!

You can find predictions for all of the games on tonight’s slate here.


Highest Probability

Coyotes @ Sabres – Spread | ARI +1.5 (-214)

With their record heavily inflated by a ten-game winning streak, the Sabres have overachieved as much as any team in the NHL this season. Their abysmal numbers at 5v5 do not reflect that of a playoff team, but here we are nearly halfway through the season and the Sabres sit eight points clear of the playoff bubble. Even Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, for as well as they’ve played, are not immune to Buffalo’s struggles at even strength. While the two looked dominant early on alongside Jason Pominville, the top line just hasn’t been able to produce the same results with Sam Reinhart on the right wing. Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart are averaging just 50 shot attempts and 22 scoring chances per 60 together at 5v5. Their inability to consistently create high-danger chances should, at the very least, allow the Coyotes to stay within two goals of them tonight.

As you move down the teams’ respective lineups, you’ll see the Coyotes do own a slight advantage at even strength. The Derek Stepan line has been much more effective than the Sabres’ second and third lines this season and Brad Richardson has quietly become one of the better shutdown centres in the NHL. So long as they can get a respectable performance out of Darcy Kuemper in goal, Arizona should have no problem keeping this one close. Corsica gives them a 70.47% chance of covering the spread tonight.

Highest Value

Panthers @ Wild – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-100)

Devan Dubnyk’s recent run of poor play was no doubt in the minds of the oddsmakers when they set the over/under at 6.5 for tonight’s contest. Prior to a 7-1 victory over the Habs on Tuesday, Dubnyk had allowed 24 goals over his previous six starts, posting a dreadful .847 SV% over that span. As evident by his career even-strength SV% of .923, Dubnyk’s struggles will certainly be short-lived, and his performance on Tuesday already marked a turn in the right direction. A similar outing from him tonight should help maintain a Panthers’ offense that is considerably weaker without Vincent Trochek centering the second line.

On the flip side of things, we shouldn’t expect to see another explosive performance from the Wild offense tonight. Their seven-goal onslaught against the Canadiens, while impressive, was done with just two goals being scored at even strength. The Panthers’ have done an admirable job on the penalty-kill this season and are one of the more disciplined teams in the NHL, taking just over three minor penalties a game. Corsica gives this game a 63.75% chance of hitting the under, making it the most valuable bet on tonight’s slate.

 

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.

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