DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 14th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions nearly missed out on a perfect outing on Thursday. While the Wild went off for five goals against the Panthers, Florida was only able to generate one of their own, which helped secure the under of 6.5 goals and Corsica’s most valuable bet of the night. Corsica’s most probable bet was the Coyotes to cover a +1.5-goal spread against the Sabres, a play that looked promising for most of the evening. The Sabres jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead before Christian Fischer answered for Arizona. Unfortunately for Corsica, the Coyotes were unable to push another goal passed Carter Hutton. A third period goal from Evan Rodrigues made it a 3-1 final, ending Corsica’s bid at a perfect night.

We’ve got a busy Friday night slate ahead of us with eight games on tap. To help you break down your options, I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Avalanche @ Blues – Spread | STL +1.5 (-254)

According to Corsica, with a 75.94% chance of coming to fruition, the Blues covering a +1.5-goal spread is the most likely bet to come through on tonight’s slate. Despite having a wealth of talent on their roster, the Blues sit fourth-last in the NHL with 26 points in 29 games. At the heart of their struggles is Vladimir Tarasenko. The Blues’ perennial all-star has just nine goals and 11 assists on the season.

Much of Tarasenko’s dip in production can be attributed to a 7.3 on-ice SH%, which should regress in his favour sooner than later. He’s bounced up and down the Blues lineup this season but has been most effective alongside Ryan O’Reilly. The two of them are averaging 29 scoring chances and 14 high-danger chances per 60 at 5v5 this season and are expected to skate together on the Blues’ top line tonight. The numbers suggest they should be able to go blow for blow with the Avalanche’s dynamic top line. Assuming that matchup does indeed turn out to be a wash, the depth matchups obviously tilt in the Blues’ favour. So long as they can get a half-decent performance out of Jake Allen (which is much easier said than done), St. Louis should have no problem keeping this game close.

Highest Value

Avalanche @ Blues – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-117)

We’re not leaving Missouri for this one. Forever a fan of playing the under, Corsica has the Blues and Avalanche finishing under 6.5 goals as the most valuable bet on tonight’s slate. As I mentioned earlier, Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen should be held in check at 5v5 by the O’Reilly line. The Avalanche struggle to get secondary scoring on a nightly basis, so even limiting the top line to one goal would be huge for the under in this one.

Despite all of Allen’s struggles this season, he’s actually played quite well on the penalty-kill. His .905 short-handed SV% has helped the Blues kill off 84.5% of their penalties, the fourth-best rate in the NHL. The Blues blanking the Avs’ power-play would make the under a near-lock. Corsica gives this bet a 65.75% chance of hitting.