DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 18th)
The Corsica NHL betting predictions had a perfect night on Monday, correctly predicting both of its most probable and valuable bets. With a given probability of 68.63%, Corsica had the Bruins covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Habs as the most likely bet to hit last night. The Bruins did us one better, steamrolling the Canadiens on their way to a 4-0 road victory. Corsica claimed no bet offered more value than the Golden Knights and Blue Jackets finishing with less than 6.5 goals, and they could not have been more right. Malcolm Subban and Sergei Bobrovsky combined to stop 58 of 59 shots as the Blue Jackets squeaked out a 1-0 victory.
Corsica will look to keep things rolling on tonight’s busy slate. With eleven games on tap, it can be difficult to narrow down the best spots to play. To make things easier on you, I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets for tonight’s slate below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here.
Highest Probability
Panthers @ Sabres – Spread | FLA +1.5 (-246)
This is hardly a hot take, but the Sabres have overperformed as much as any team in the NHL this season. They have been out-chanced and out-shot all season at 5v5 but have been bailed out by a hot top-line and stellar goaltending. You don’t have to be an expert in analytics to know that isn’t a sustainable formula for success, and we’re already starting to see the fallout. Buffalo’s lost six of their last nine games but the oddsmakers are lagging just a bit behind the trend, pegging them to be the favourite on home ice against the Panthers.
The Panthers come into tonight’s contest on the heels of a solid 4-3 overtime victory over the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Captain Aleksander Barkov went off for three goals on seven shots, including the game-winner in overtime. Tonight should be more of the same for Florida’s top line. Barkov has been incredibly productive at 5v5 over the last two seasons when skating alongside Jonathan Huberdeau. Not even the Sabres’ top line can match up adequately with them at even strength. A half-decent performance from Roberto Luongo in goal will be all the Panthers need to keep this one close, if not win outright. Corsica gives the Panthers a 77.37% chance of covering the spread tonight.
Highest Value
Lightning @ Canucks – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-101)
If you follow this post closely, you know Corsica is a huge fan of playing the under. The game that draws their eye tonight is the Lightning and the Canucks, where the over/under is set at 6.5 goals. Corsica gives this game a 63.32% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals, making this the most valuable bet on tonight’s slate. Tampa will no question see their normal rates of shots and scoring chances tonight, but Anders Nilsson should be able to keep the game from getting out of hand. The 28-year-old Swede has outplayed teammate Jacob Markstrom this season, posting a .927 even-strength SV% in 10 appearances. A typical performance from him should be enough to secure the under.
While you can expect the Lightning’s dynamic offense to create an abundance of scoring chances tonight, the same can’t be said for the Canucks. Aside from the success enjoyed by Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson on the second line, Vancouver has struggled to generate quality chances this season. Bo Horvat is being left with nothing to play with on his wings and his numbers are reflective of that. The 23-year-old has a 47.4 CF% on the season and has been grossly out-chanced at 5v5. With only one line that can be relied on to create offense at a respectable rate, Vancouver will almost certainly do their part in making sure this game hits the under.