DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 19th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions nearly missed out on back-to-back perfect outings on Tuesday. Corsica had pegged the Panthers against the spread to be the most probable bet on the slate, giving them a 77.37% chance of finishing within 1.5 goals of the Sabres. Florida trailed most of the game but a four-goal explosion in the third netted them a 5-2 victory over Buffalo. Corsica tagged the under for the Lightning and Canucks game as the most valuable bet on the slate. The bet looked promising for most of the game before a pair of late third-period goals from the Lightning, one of them an empty netter, made it a 5-2 final.

There are some spots to like tonight despite there being just a pair of games on the slate. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predications for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Canadiens @ Avalanche – Spread | MTL +1.5 (-180)

It can be tough to find sure-fire bets on such a small slate, but Corsica is giving the Habs a 69.65% chance of covering the spread tonight. While Colorado’s star power will carry them a long way, their depth up front pales in comparison to that of the Habs. Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin are both in the midst of career years and Montreal’s second and third lines have dominated the opposition at 5v5.

The Philip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar line has one of the best SCF% in the NHL, averaging a whopping 37 scoring chances per 60 while surrendering just 20. The Avs’ top line tends to avoid the opposition’s first-line at home, leaving a pair of difficult 5v5 matchups for Nathan Mackinnon and company. It’s a lot easier said than done these days, but the Habs won’t need more than a half-decent performance out of Carey Price to keep this one close, if not win outright.

Highest Value

Penguins @ Capitals – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+110)

The high-value play won’t be as enticing on a night with just two games, but the Pens and Caps hitting the under does offer the best bang for your buck tonight. While the Capitals’ dominant power-play speaks for itself, their production at 5v5 is underwhelming. The Penguins have the tenth-best penalty-kill in the NHL and have taken the fourth-fewest minor penalties, resulting in just 17 power-play goals against through 33 games. Their steady penalty-killing and disciplined play should keep the Caps’ power-play from going off tonight, bolstering this game’s chances of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.

The best bet for keeping the Penguins’ offense in check tonight is Braden Holtby. The 29-year-old netminder seems to have regained his form after a shaky 2016-17, posting a .929 EV-SV% through his first 23 games of the season. He’s won three straight starts and had a tremendous performance against Pittsburgh on November 7, stopping 41 of 42 shots on route to a 2-1 victory. Corsica gives this game a 59.19% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.