DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 28th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions rode a perfect outing last Friday into the holiday break, nailing both of its most probable and valuable bets. Corsica was able to find value despite there being just three games on the slate, something we hope they can repeat tonight. Corsica pegged the Capitals to win a low-scoring affair against the Sabres, selecting the under for the game as the most valuable bet, while the Caps on the moneyline was thought to be the most probable. Corsica’s prediction rang true as Washington narrowly defeated the Sabres by a score of 2-1.

Corsica will look to repeat last Friday’s success as they’ve narrowed in on one of the slate’s three games. I’ve highlighted tonight’s most probable and valuable bets below, but you can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets – Spread | CBJ +1.5 (-254)

Corsica had pegged the Blue Jackets covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Leafs as the night’s most probable bet before Garret Sparks was even announced as Toronto’s starter. There is always some rust that a team needs to shake off after a long break, and tonight should be no exception for the Maple Leafs. At the very least, the fact that the Leafs haven’t played since Sunday should nullify the Blue Jackets playing on the tail-end of a back-to-back. Columbus lacks the fire-power of the Maple Leafs, but they do match up very well against them. They have an excellent top-nine group of forwards. Their top line of Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson, and Pierre-Luc Dubois is as good as any in the league, and their second and third lines generally do an effective job of limiting their opposition. Boone Jenner and Alexander Wennberg are both capable two-way centres that should be able to aid the Dubois line in maintaining the likes of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares.

Throw in tonight’s lopsided goaltending matchup, and it’s easy to see why Corsica is so high on the Blue Jackets. Sparks has looked mediocre at best this season and is coming off a game against the Red Wings in which he gave up four goals on just 30 shots (.867 SV%). Sergei Bobrovsky, meanwhile, is in the midst of the hottest stretch of his young season. He’s won his last four starts, compiling a pair of shutouts and allowing just four goals on 134 shots (0.970 SV%) over that span. He’s as good of a bet as any goalie in the league right now to shutdown Toronto’s dynamic offense.

Highest Value

Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+106)

If you’re a frequent reader of this post, you know that Corsica loves to play the under. With a 59.37% chance of coming to fruition, Corsica has the Leafs and Blue Jackets finishing under 6.5 goals as the most valuable bet on tonight’s slate. Bobrovsky is in remarkable form and should make up for any lapses in Sparks’ game. Columbus owns the third-worst power-play percentage in the league at 13.7%. The Leafs don’t have a great penalty-kill, but they are the league’s most disciplined team. They’ve taken the fewest minor penalties and are the only team to average less than seven penalty minutes per game. A pair of typical performances form Bobrovsky and the Blue Jackets’ dormant power-play should be enough to secure the under in this one.