DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (February 11th)
The Corsica NHL betting predictions returns tonight after another respectable performance last week. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets for tonight’s three-game slate below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!
Highest Probability
Penguins @ Flyers – Spread | PHI +1.5 (-239)
At -239, you’re not getting a lot of value here, but it is without doubt the safest bet on the slate. The Flyers are the hottest team in the NHL right now. They’ve posted a 9-0-1 record over their past 10 games, racking up 38 goals for and just 22 against. One of the main reasons for Philly’s recent breakout is the emergence of the Sean Couturier line. Couturier, Jakub Voracek, and Oskar Lindblom have formed a legitimate first line for the Flyers. They are an excellent shutdown line, capable of maintaining the opposition’s most lethal threats while creating offense of their own. The Flyers are averaging 28 scoring chances per 60 with the three of them on the ice and are surrendering just 22 in the process. They should be up to the monumental task of shutting down Sidney Crosby tonight.
Couturier taking on the tougher assignments allows Claude Giroux and Nolan Patrick to see some friendlier matchups at even strength. The Flyers’ second and third lines should be able to generate a significant amount of offense against that of the Penguins.
On top of all that, recent trends suggest the Flyers should have an advantage on special teams tonight. Their power-play ranks third in the NHL over the last 30 days at 29.4%. The Penguins have killed just 73.3% of their penalties over that same span, the fourth-worst rate in the league. Even if the play at even strength does favour the Pens, the Flyers’ power-play should be the great equalizer. Corsica gives Philly a 70.68% chance of covering the +1.5-goal spread tonight.
Highest Value
Penguins @ Flyers – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-102)
As always, these two bets are independent of one another, but there is reason to believe in the Flyers winning a low-scoring affair tonight. While Philadelphia is a significant threat on the man-advantage tonight, the Penguins’ power-play is sputtering of late. They’ve converted on just 15.6% of their opportunities over the last month, the 10th-worst rate in the NHL. Their ineffectiveness with the man advantage should keep the goal scoring to a minimum.
Of course, the goaltending matchup also lends itself to the under tonight. Carter Hart is as hot as any goalie in the league right now. The 20-year-old phenom owns a .934 SV% and a perfect 8-0-0 record in his last eight starts. He’s allowed more than three goals only three times all season and will almost certainly do his part in making sure this game stays under 6.5 goals. The Penguins are expected to counter with Matt Murray in goal. Murray has done a great job making people forget his terrible start to the season, posting a .930 SV% since returning from injury in mid-December. He’ll have his hands full, but he should keep the Flyers’ production within reason tonight. Corsica gives the under a probability of 62.45%, giving it tremendous value at -102.