DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (February 5th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions had another respectable outing on Monday. Corsica was bang-on with their most probable bet but took a big L on their high-value play. Corsica gave the Kings a 74.29% chance of covering the +1.5-goal spread against the Rangers last night. The Kings did us one better, riding a three-point performance from Adrian Kempe to a 4-3 overtime victory. Corsica liked the Ducks to cover in Toronto, making it the most valuable bet on the slate. The bet looked promising early on, but a pair of late second-period goals blew the game open for Toronto.

The NHL is back in full swing with 12 games on tap tonight. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Wild @ Sabres – Spread | MIN +1.5 (-286)

According to Corsica, with a likelihood of 76.9%, you won’t find a safer bet than this on tonight’s slate. These two teams sit even on the year with 56 points apiece, so the oddsmakers are giving the Sabres the slight advantage on home ice. It doesn’t take a whole lot of research to see this game is far from an even matchup. For one, Buffalo’s record is still inflated from their ten-game winning streak in November. At 8-14-4, Buffalo owns the second-worst record in the NHL since that streak came to a crashing halt. The wheels have been falling off for the better part of two months now, while the Wild seem to be finally hitting their stride. Minnesota owns an 8-5-1 record since the turn of the calendar year. They are the clear favourites in Buffalo tonight.

Simply put, the Sabres don’t have the depth necessary to match up with that of the Wild. Forever juggling their lines, Minnesota is expected to front-load their top-six tonight. Eric Staal will centre the first line with Jason Zucker and Mikael Granlund on his wings, while Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, and Charlie Coyle form line two. Buffalo doesn’t have a line capable of handling Minnesota’s second line, let alone the Staal line. A half-decent performance from Devan Dubnyk in goal is all the Wild will need to cover the spread tonight.

Highest Value

Sharks @ Jets – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+107)

More often than not, defense prevails over offense in the NHL, and Corsica is banking on that to be the case tonight in Winnipeg. While these two teams are revered for their offensive talent, they are two of the more defensively-sound teams in the league. Neither team surrenders more than 26 scoring chances per 60 at 5v5, suggesting quality goal-scoring opportunities will be few and far between. Based on Winnipeg’s line matching tendencies, the top lines are expected to matchup head-to-head at even strength, neutralizing the most potent offensive threats on either side. The power-play is where both teams tend to do most of their damage offensively. Winnipeg owns the second-best PP% in the league at 27.6%, while the Sharks rank seventh at 24.3%. Thankfully, both of these teams kill penalties at an above-average rate, which should keep either power-play from going off tonight.

Martin Jones is probably the biggest threat to the under. He’s been very inconsistent this season, posting an .896 SV% and 2.95 GAA in 39 games. Thankfully for Corsica, Jones has looked a lot better of late. He’s won 10 of his last 12 starts and turned away 31 of the 33 shots he faced in Saturday’s victory over the Coyotes. Connor Hellebuyck is expected to be between the pipes for the Jets tonight. His relatively slow year has taken a turn for the better of late. He’s won seven of his last nine starts, posting a .916 SV% over that span. Corsica gives the under a probability of 60.84%, giving it incredible value at -103.