DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (February 7th)

Updated: February 7, 2019 at 3:49 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

With just two games on last night’s slate, Corsica opted to double down on the under for the Sens and Maple Leafs, selecting it as both the high-value and probability play. The risk looked promising early on but ultimately backfired when the game blew wide open in the second period. Morgan Rielly’s third period goal made it a 5-4 final in favour of the Maple Leafs.

With 14 games on tonight’s slate, Corsica has plenty of spots to choose from to compensate for last night’s blunder. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Ducks @ Senators – Spread | ANA +1.5 (-260)

With a probability of 80.09%, this is one of the safest bets we’ve seen all season. Corsica actually likes the Ducks to win this game outright, giving them a likelihood of 55.45%. Ottawa is the only team on tonight’s 14-game slate that played last night, so it makes sense that Corsica would target them.

No team in the NHL has lost more man games to injury this year than the Ducks. Their top nine is finally starting to get healthy, and their offensive production should see a boost as a result. Corey Perry is still rounding into game shape, but his return gives Anaheim a legitimate first line. Rickard Rakell and Ryan Getzlaf had struggle to maintain possession at even strength in Perry’s absence. Ottawa tends to surrender a ton of high-quality chances whenever the Mark Stone line is off the ice. Their defensive ineptitude should grant Anaheim’s top line an abundance of scoring chances tonight.

John Gibson has uncharacteristically struggled of late, but he’ll get an excellent chance to right the ship tonight. Corsica is ignoring his last three games and betting on the Vezina trophy candidate to return to form tonight. This was going to be a challenging game for the Sens to begin with, but the added fatigue of playing on back-to-back nights should prove to be too much to handle. You can ride the Ducks with confidence tonight.

Highest Value

Sharks @ Flames – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+118)

Forever a fan of playing the under, Corsica turns its attention to the Flames and Sharks tonight. While both teams can do plenty of damage offensively, they are two of the more defensively-responsible teams in the NHL. The Sharks surrender the fewest shot attempts per 60 at 5v5 and the fourth-fewest scoring chances. Calgary isn’t far behind, ranking fifth and eighth in shot attempts and scoring chances against, respectively. High-danger chances should be at a premium tonight, which will help keep the goal scoring to a minimum.

The goaltending matchup also lends itself to the under. Martin Jones is expected to be in goal for San Jose tonight. He’s struggled with consistency this year but is red-hot coming into tonight’s contest. He’s allowed just four goals on 60 shots over his last two games (.933 SV%) and has won 11 of his last 13 starts. The Flames are expected to counter with David Rittich. Rittich has quietly been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season. His 34-save performance in Sunday’s 4-3 victory over the Hurricanes raised his SV% to .918 on the season. Corsica gives this game a 61.14% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals. At +118, it offers more value than any other bet on tonight’s massive slate.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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