DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 10th)

Updated: January 10, 2019 at 5:02 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

After back-to-back perfect nights the Corsica NHL betting predictions came crashing back down to Earth on Wednesday. It was particularly heartbreaking because both bets looked promising for most of the night. The high-value play was pegged to be the under for the Avalanche and Flames. The under looked to be within reach as the score sat at 4-2 with less than a minute to play. Unfortunately for Corsica, the Avalanche and Flames both scored in the last minute of play, making the final 5-3. The Ducks on the Moneyline was the most likely bet on the slate. Anaheim nursed a one-goal lead for most of the game but a third-period goal from Bobby Ryan forced the game to overtime. Colin White netted the eventual game-winner for the Sens, effectively ruining the nights of DailyFaceoff readers everywhere.

Corsica looks to bounce back on tonight’s massive 12-game slate. I’ve highlighted their most valuable and probable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Value

Maple Leafs @ Devils – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-102)

The high-value plays are always going to come with some associated risk, and tonight that risk’s name is Keith Kinkaid. Kinkaid has allowed 13 goals on 88 shots (.852 SV%) over his last four games. He gave up 11 goals in his previous two meetings with Maple Leafs this season. Though it’s much easier said than done, it shouldn’t take more than a mediocre performance from Kinkaid for this game to hit the under.

Without Taylor Hall in the lineup, the Devils can’t afford to get into a track-meet with the Maple Leafs. They’ll do whatever they can to slow down the pace of the game, and they’ve got the players to do it. Travis Zajac, Blake Coleman, and Miles Wood make for a formidable shutdown-line. They surrender just 24 scoring chances per 60 at 5v5 and should be able to keep the Leafs’ top line in check tonight. The Devils’ top line has remained effective despite the absence of Hall, and the Pavel Zacha line can also absorb some of the more difficult minutes. If the Devils have their way, tonight’s game will be a slow, low-event affair that won’t even come close to hitting the over. Corsica gives this bet a 59.46% chance of hitting.

Highest Probability

Jets @ Wild – Spread | WPG +1.5 (-260)

The line for this game is a bit of a headscratcher, so it’s no surprise to see Corsica all in on the Jets tonight. While the Wild have fallen out of a playoff spot, the Jets have battled through injuries to maintain the seventh-best record in the NHL. The Wild are a solid but underwhelming team offensively, currently ranked 20th in the NHL in goals per game. They don’t have the firepower to make you feel confident in a -1.5-goal spread. Though Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t looked quite like himself this season, the goaltending matchup for tonight’s game is essentially a coin flip. Devan Dubnyk has been a marginally-better goaltender this season but his career .916 SV% is right in line with Hellebuyck’s (.915). Both teams are as deep as they come and match-up evenly at 5v5. Special teams are where this game starts to tilt in Winnipeg’s favour.

The Wild have done an admirable job on the penalty-kill this season but the Jets’ power-play is its own beast. The Jets have converted on 29.4% of their power-plays this season, just 0.5% off the Lightning for the league lead. A typical performance on special teams and a respectable performance from Hellebuyck is all the Jets will need to beat the +1.5-goal spread tonight. Corsica gives it a likelihood of 73.43%.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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