DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 18th)

Updated: January 18, 2019 at 4:07 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

The Corsica NHL betting predictions got back on track with a perfect night on Thursday. Under 6.5 goals for the Maple Leafs and Lightning was Corsica’s most valuable bet, while Chicago beating a +1.5-goal spread against the Rangers was pegged to be the most probable. Goaltending was indeed the story again between the Leafs and Lightning as Frederik Andersen and Andrei Vasilevskiy combined to stop 63 of the game’s 68 shots. Dominik Kahun made Corsica very happy when he scored a meaningless goal with two seconds left in the Rangers and Blackhawks game, making the final 4-3 for New York. The goal had no impact on the game itself, but it gave Chicago the win against the +1.5-goal spread.

Tonight’s slate offers plenty of value with seven games on tap. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Maple Leafs @ Panthers – Spread | FLA +1.5 (-225)

Corsica’s most probable bet could get even stronger if Vincent Trocheck returns from injury. The Panthers activated Trocheck off injured reserve earlier today and he is considered a game-time decision. He hasn’t played since suffering a leg injury in a game against the Senators on November 19. Trocheck’s return would allow Henrik Borgstrom to drop down to line three alongside Mike Hoffman, while Trocheck centres Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad on line two. It obviously deepens Florida’s lineup tremendously and gives them a top-nine capable of challenging Toronto tonight.

The Maple Leafs are fresh off a huge win over Tampa Bay last night, but they’ll have to deal with the added fatigue of playing on back-to-back nights. The home-ice advantage allows Panthers head coach Bob Boughner to control the matchups at even strength. Expect Aleksander Barkov to be glued to the hip of John Tavares in this one, minimizing the impact of the Maple Leafs’ first line. The Panthers’ reloaded second and third lines can hopefully take advantage of their time against Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri, two centres that afford plenty of scoring chances to the opposition. As long as Roberto Luongo can turn in a half-decent performance, the Panthers should have no problem keeping this one close. Corsica gives them a 73.18% chance of finishing within 1.5 goals of the Maple Leafs.

Highest Value

Maple Leafs @ Panthers – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+110)

We’re not leaving Sunrise for this one. Corsica will double-down on games from time to time, and despite all the fire power, there is some logic to the Panthers winning a low-scoring affair. The Barkov line hasn’t been as dominant at 5v5 this season as they were last, but they remain a competent shutdown line. They surrender just 26 scoring chances per 60 and their aforementioned matchup with the Tavares line should keep the final score within reason.

While these two teams are revered for their power-plays, they both kill penalties at an above-average rate. Stout penalty-killing usually wins over a good power-play, another thing going in the under’s favour tonight. The goaltending is definitely the biggest threat to that 6.5-goal mark. Luongo hasn’t looked quite like himself this season, posting a measly .892 SV% across 23 games. Garret Sparks is projected as the Maple Leafs starter. He has been inconsistent throughout his 10 appearances and owns a .905 SV% on the year. Both goaltenders will need to be on their game tonight if this bet is going to have a chance. Corsica gives it a likelihood of 60.11%.