DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 23rd)

Updated: January 23, 2019 at 4:08 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

The Corsica NHL betting predictions enjoyed a perfect night on Tuesday, nailing both of its high-value and probability plays. The Blackhawks topping a +1.5-goal spread against the Islanders was pegged to be the night’s most probable bet. Chicago did us one better, securing the bonus point in 3-2 shootout victory. Corsica wasn’t worried about the Flames’ firepower when they chose the under for their game to be the night’s most valuable bet. Carolina’s typically-suppressive playstyle set the tone early on and slowed the Flames’ pace considerably. The two teams ended up combining for only five goals, never coming close to 6.5 mark set by the oddsmakers.

Corsica looks to keep its momentum rolling into tonight’s six-game slate. I’ve highlighted their most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Hurricanes @ Canucks – Spread | CAR +1.5 (-265)

Corsica isn’t all that worried about the added-fatigue Carolina will be dealing with after playing last night in Calgary. They’re giving the Canes a 76.91% chance of beating the +1.5-goal spread against the Canucks. Given Carolina’s dominance at even strength, it’s no surprise to see Corsica going all in on them tonight. Carolina sits second in the NHL in CF% (55.41%), SCF% (55.18%), and HDCF% (55.68%). They’ve done an excellent job at generating high-danger chances out of their puck possession, but the goals just aren’t there. Carolina owns the worst 5v5 SH% in the league at 6.40%. That kind of puck-luck is historically bad, and its bound to let up sooner than later.

Carolina should absolutely dominate this game at even strength. The Canucks are one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and own the league’s worst SCF% (44.01%). They don’t have a line capable of handling the pressure that Carolina’s top-six can generate. Keep in mind Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to make his NHL debut in goal for the Canes tonight. He owns a .903 SV% in the AHL this season and is a huge wild card tonight. Carolina shouldn’t need more than a half-decent performance out of him to keep this one close.

Highest Value

Capitals @ Maple Leafs – Moneyline | WSH (+165)

Corsica normally scours the night’s over/unders for value, but they can’t get over the Capitals on the moneyline tonight. Buyer beware, this is somewhat of a riskier play. Corsica actually likes Toronto to win this one, giving the Caps just a 41.57% chance of coming out on top. But with the odds set at +165, you’re getting tremendous value out of Washington on the moneyline tonight. Washington’s offense was firing on all cylinders against the Sharks’ last night, but a disappointing effort defensively led to a 7-6 defeat. Their penalty-kill should bounce-back tonight against a Maple Leafs’ power-play that’s converted on just 10.0% of their opportunities since the Christmas break.

Anyway you slice it, the oddsmakers are giving way too much credit to a Leafs team that’s lost seven out of their last ten games. Toronto’s new alignment with Mitchell Marner and Auston Matthews skating together is intimidating, but it leaves them with a defensively-liable first line. John Tavares has struggled in his own end away from Marner this season, surrendering 33 scoring chances per 60. Giving up that kind of time and space to the Capitals’ top-six is a recipe for disaster. This one should be a track meet, and the Capitals have more than enough firepower to keep pace with the Leafs.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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