DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 30th)

Updated: January 30, 2019 at 3:37 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

 

The Corsica NHL betting predictions kept its perfect week rolling on Tuesday, nailing both of its high-value and probability bets. Corsica went on all in on the Flyers for the second-straight night. They had Philly covering the spread as the most likely bet, while the under for that same game was projected to be the most valuable. Remarkably, in a game that featured Alexandar Georgiev and Anthony Stolarz in goal, goaltending was the story. Stolarz stole the show, stopping all 39 shots he faced on route to the second shutout of his career. Georgiev certainly pulled his weight, too, allowing just one goal on 19 shots. It was only the 14th game this season with just a single goal scored.

Corsica looks to keep things rolling tonight on another small slate. I’ve highlighted their most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!


Highest Probability

Lightning @ Penguins – Spread | PIT +1.5 (-231)

The Lightning own the best record in the NHL and are the favourites tonight by default, but they haven’t played since January 19. Teams have struggled coming off their bye weeks since the league implemented them a few seasons ago. Pittsburgh got to shake off the rust on Monday, and Corsica’s giving them a 51.15% chance of winning outright tonight. With a likelihood of 74.28%, the Penguins covering the spread is one of the safest bets we’ve seen all season.

It’s always intimidating to bet against Tampa Bay, but Pittsburgh has all the tools necessary to beat the Lightning. Their top line is by far the best line in this game at even strength. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Dominik Simon have dominated their opponents at 5v5 this season. The Penguins average 17 high-danger chances when they’re on the ice and surrender just four in the process. With the home-ice advantage, Pittsburgh can control the line matching in this game. Crosby and company should be able to completely outwork and shutdown Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov tonight. As for the other pertinent matchup, the Steven Stamkos line is actually being grossly out-chanced at 5v5 this season. They’ve posted a 45.98 SCF% and a 48.09 CF% in just over 170 minutes together. They should struggle to maintain Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel tonight, giving Pittsburgh’s top-six a clear advantage across the board.

Highest Value

Lightning @ Penguins – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+130)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Corsica is doubling down on the same game for the third night in a row. For the third time this week, I must remind you that these bets are independent of one another. That being said, like the Flyers on Monday and Tuesday, there is plenty of reason to believe in Pittsburgh winning a low-scoring affair tonight. I’ve already mentioned the rust that teams experience coming off their bye weeks. That should take a toll on the Lightning’s offense tonight, specifically their No.1-ranked power-play. The Penguins are no slouch on the penalty-kill to begin with, owning the sixth-best PK% in the NHL (83.3%).

If Stolarz and Georgiev can combine for just one goal against, surely Matt Murray and Andrei Vasilevksiy can collectively hold this game under 6.5 goals tonight. Vasilevskiy is enjoying another dominant season and is the owner of the third-best SV% in the NHL (.925). Murray, meanwhile, has been arguably the best goalie in the league over the last month and a half. He’s posted a 10-2-0 record and a .933 SV% over since returning from a lower-body injury in Mid-December. Corsica gives this game a 59.66% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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