DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (March 4th)

Updated: March 4, 2019 at 2:12 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

The Corsica NHL betting predictions is back for Monday’s two-game slate. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Value

Maple Leafs @ Flames – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+110)

All the star power in this game pushed the over/under to 6.5, but there’s a lot of reason to believe the final tally won’t come close to that. Calgary’s top line gets all the attention, but their second and third lines are outstanding at 5v5. The Flames are surrendering just 23 scoring chances per 60 when the Mikael Backlund line is on the ice. Backlund, Michael Frolik, and Matthew Tkachuk form one of the best checking lines in the NHL. They should slow down the torrid pace of the Maple Leafs’ top-six whenever they’re on the ice.

Calgary’s third line features an effective forechecking duo in Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski. Calgary is giving up just eight high-danger chances per 60 with the two of them on the ice. They do an excellent job of forcing shot attempts to the outside and are effective at getting in and out of the zone. Toronto will be hard-pressed to generate their normal rate of offense against Calgary’s checking lines tonight.

The Leafs have their own answer for Calgary’s point-producers in Frederik Andersen. Andersen is enjoying an outstanding season with the Maple Leafs, boasting a .923 SV% and a 2.58 GAA. He’s won four consecutive starts, registering a .930 SV% in that span. He’s given up more than three goals in just eight of his 47 starts this season. Even if the Maple Leafs’ defense is unable to slow down the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Andersen should keep their production within reason. Corsica gives this game a 61.71% of finishing with less than 6.5 goals. It offers tremendous value at +110.

Highest Probability

Oilers @ Sabres – Spread | EDM +1.5 (-234)

The Oilers enter tonight’s game as the underdog, but Corsica sees the game as more of a coinflip. They’re giving Edmonton the slightest of edges, with a 50.4% chance of winning the game outright. Believe it or not, one of the biggest reasons to believe in the Oilers tonight is Zack Kassian. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have looked significantly better in their own end with Kassian on their right wing. They’ve posted a 59.34 SCF% with Kassian, compared to a 49.89 SCF% without him. They’re spending much less time in their own end and are producing more as a result. This new formula for the Oilers’ first line should give them a slight advantage in their matchup with Jack Eichel. So long as the depth of the Oilers can break even against that of the Sabres, Edmonton should have no issues covering tonight.

Fresh off a 30-save shutout against Columbus on Saturday, Mikko Koskinen is expected to get the call for the Oilers. He’s posted a 4-1-2 record along with an impressive .934 SV% over his last seven starts. Corsica gives Koskinen’s Oilers a 75.42% chance of covering the +1.5-goal spread.