DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (October 17th)
The last Corsica Hockey Bet Predictions went 1-1 on their Highest Value and Highest Probability bets, bringing this post to 7-2 on the season.
Tonight’s 4-game slate has New York on a back-to-back, Jake Allen searching for his game and Carey Price returning from the flu. Below you will find the Highest Value and Highest Probability bets for tonight’s slate, but you can view the best predictions for all eight games in our BETS SECTION.
Highest Value
New York Rangers @ Washington Capitals — Spread | NYR +1.5 (-110)
Taking the Rangers to cover the spread is the highest value this slate has to offer. This game should be a lot closer than you would think at first glance, at least at even strength. Washington currently has the fifth-worst CorsiFor% in the league at 44.26% and has been outscored 15-12 at 5v5 this season. This is hardly a new trend, but the Capitals have relied on their dominant powerplay early on this season. They’ve converted on seven of their 19 powerplay opportunities (36.8%), the fourth best rate in the NHL.
The Rangers don’t have a particularly strong penalty kill, but they’ve only taken 19 penalties in their six games. Doing some quick math will tell you Washington shouldn’t score more than once on the powerplay tonight, giving the Rangers a chance to keep it close. Dating back to last season, New York is averaging 32.26 scoring chances per 60 when Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad are on the ice. Their top line should be able to control the pace of play at even strength. On top of all that, early season trends suggest the goaltending to be in New York’s favour. Henrik Lundqvist (if he starts) is off to a tremendous start this season, posting a .939 SV% through the team’s first five games. Braden Holtby, on the other hand, has mustered just a .896 SV% in four appearances this season.
Highest Probability
New York Islanders @ Anaheim Ducks — Spread | NYI +1.5 (-208)
The highest probability of hitting tonight, according to Corsica, is the Islanders on a +1.5-goal spread. Despite their 4-1-1 record, The Ducks have posted some terrible splits at 5v5 this season. They rank dead last in CorsiFor% with an abysmal 39.49%. They are averaging just 21.33 scoring chances per 60 while surrendering a whopping 36.28, far from a sustainable winning formula. These problems have been masked so far this season by the dynamic play of goaltender John Gibson. The 25-year-old Ducks’ netminder has posted a gaudy .944 SV% in five games this season, with one shutout already under his belt.
The Ducks’ issues at 5v5 are due to a lack of depth down the middle, and they won’t correct themselves until Ryan Getzlaf returns to the lineup. The Islanders might not score many goals on the red-hot Gibson, but the Ducks won’t be generating a whole lot of offense tonight. Robin Lehner has performed well so far this season, adding to the likelihood of this being a close, low-scoring affair.