DailyFaceoff DFS Cheat Sheet – January 18th
There are five games on the schedule tonight and there are a number of intriguing story lines.
- Ondrej Pavelec returns to the Jets crease to make his season debut.
- The Penguins, who scored eight on Braden Holtby will try and solve Carey Price tonight.
- The Red Wings try and keep their playoff hopes alive against a Bruins team that they’re chasing in the Atlantic Division.
This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings and FanDuel salary as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.
Line Stacks
Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
SaberSim Combined Projection: DK-12.42 / FD-44.76
This line has been far and beyond the best line in the NHL this season and tonight they meet up with a Detroit team that has a shaky blueline and a young netminder. They are playing well as of late, but remain a nice matchup for this red-hot top line. Marchand (DK-$7,100 / FD-$7,300) has eight goals and eight assists (16 points) in his last 13 games—over that span he is averaging 2.78 shots on goal as well. Pastrnak (DK-$7,200 / FD-$6,700) leads the Bruins in goals this season, but has been held scoreless for the last 14 games. He has not scored on his last 47 shots on net, but has picked up seven assists during that time and can’t be held down forever. Bergeron (DK-$6,700 / FD-$6,800) season has been confusing. This line has dominated all year, but he has struggled to find offensive success. That hasn’t been the case recently, as he has matched his point total from the first 31 games (nine points) in his last 13 games (5G / 4A).
Nikolaj Ehlers – Mark Scheifele – Blake Wheeler
SaberSim Combined Projection: DK-11.14 / FD-40.22
The Jets are struggling to win games right now, but it is because of their goaltending, not a lack of goal scoring. With Patrick Laine out, their top line has been solid. Wheeler (DK-$6,200 / FD-$7,100) continues to be one of the most underrated players in the NHL and enters play with five goals and nine assists (14 points) in 15 games. Scheifele (DK-$6,500 / FD-$7,600) who got snubbed from the All-Star game, has 20 goals and 22 assists (42 points) in 44 games and has been a consistent producer night in and night out. Ehlers (DK-$5,900 / FD-$6,700) game continues to grow. He recently saw his seven game point streak snapped—he had five goals and four assists over that span—and he should get back in the points column after a two-game hiatus.
Patrick Maroon – Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl
SaberSim Combined Projection: DK-10.92 / FD-39.76
Maroon’s (DK-$5,800 / FD-$6,500) move to the top line with McDavid (DK-$8,100 / FD-$8,800) has worked wonders for the Oilers. He failed to score on Monday, but has seven goals and one assist in his last eight games and can still be picked up for a reasonable price. McDavid hasn’t scored in eight games, but has eight assists and 25 shots (3.125 S/PG) over that span. All the talk has been about McDavid and Maroon, but Draisaitl (DK-$6,400 / FD-$6,800) has three goals and three assists is his last seven games.
Defensemen
Dustin Byfuglien – vs. ARI – (DK-$6,000 / FD-$6,400)
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.60 / FD-12.65
A lot has been made about Byfuglien’s struggles this season, but he has picked up three goals and is averaging 3.38 shots and 1.5 blocked shots over his last eight games. Along with the Jets’ line mentioned above, Big Buff is a great play tonight because they take on Mike Smith and the Coyotes—Smith has given up three-plus goals in eight of his last nine starts.
Torey Krug – @ DET – (DK-$5,600 / FD-$6,500)
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.27 / FD-11.47
There was a time this year where Krug couldn’t buy a goal, but he has collected an impressive three goals and four assists (seven points) in his last seven games. Krug has averaging 2.29 and 1.00 blocked shots over that same span. If you’re rolling with the Bruins tonight, roll with Krug on the blueline.
Oscar Klefbom – vs. FLA – (DK-$4,400 / FD-$5,100)
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.84 / FD-9.74
Klefbom isn’t featured on the top power play unit, but sees time on the second unit and heavy minutes at even-strength. Klefbom has two goals and two assists while averaging 3.25 shots and 2.00 blocked shots over the last eight games, so his floor is rock solid and the matchup is a strong one.
Goalies
Cam Talbot – vs. FLA – (DK-$8,200 / FD-$9,100)
SaberSim Projection: DK-5.62 / FD-22.47
Talbot stopped 21 of 22 shots in the Oilers’ win on Monday and has won three in a row while posting a 1.29 GAA and .939 SV%. Talbot is playing a tonne, but appears to be handling it just fine. His 42nd start of the season will come against the 27th ranked offence in a building where Talbot is 12-8-1 with a 2.33 GAA and .919 SV% this season.
Tuukka Rask – @ DET – (DK-$7,500 / FD-$8,700)
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.67 / FD-18.66
Rask was yanked in his last outing and has gone just 3-3-0 with a 2.56 GAA and .888 SV% in January. Rask has been impressive on the road—going 13-4-3 with a 1.82 GAA and .934 SV% outside of Boston and posted a 24-save shutout in his first start against the Red Wings.
Ondrej Pavelec – vs. ARI – (DK-$6,800 / FD-$7,600)
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.51 / FD-18.06
I’ll be the first to admit that starting Pavelec is terrifying. The Jets goaltending has been brutal and Pavelec hasn’t even played well in Manitoba, but his matchup with the Coyotes and his real-low salary makes him an interesting play tonight.