DailyFaceoff DFS Value Plays – December 21st

Updated: December 21, 2016 at 2:51 pm by Brock Seguin


With 12 games yesterday and 10 games tomorrow, there are only two contests tonight. The first is a battle between the Flyers and Capitals—the Flyers are 10-1-1 in their last 12 while the Capitals come in with six wins in their last seven. And the night wraps up with the Coyotes vs. Oilers. Arizona has started to play better, but the wins still aren’t there.

This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings and FanDuel salary as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.

Peter Holland (C) – vs. EDM – DK-$3,000 / FD-$3,300

Since being acquired from Toronto, Holland has appeared in four games with the Coyotes and is averaging 15:03 TOI, including 1:01 per game on the power-play. Holland is getting the opportunity he wasn’t getting in Toronto. Holland has two assists in those four games and has picked up eight shots on goal in his last three games (2.67 S/PG). He’ll play a fair amount of ice-time and plays with two solid wingers in Anthony Duclair and Jamie McGinn, making him a really good value option.

Travis Konecny (W) – vs. WSH – DK-$4,800 / FD-$4,400

Konecny hasn’t scored in his last 19 games, but because of Sean Couturier’s injury, Konecny is locked into a top-6 role, which makes him valuable. The rookie has four assists while averaging two shots per game over his last 11 and and three shots per game over his last four. His shooting percentage of 5.5 is bound to improve and the puck should start finding the net soon.

Ivan Provorov (D) – vs. WSH – DK-$4,700 / FD-$4,200

Provorov continues to see an increase in playing time and has now played 20-plus minutes in 15 of his last 16 games—averaging 22:03 TOI over that span. During that time, he has three goals and five assists (eight points) while averaging 1.69 shots on goal and 2.38 blocked shots. He has become very consistent and while he’s not overly cheap, he is a great second-tier option in a two-game slate.

Mike Smith (G) – vs. EDM – DK-$7,300 / FD-$8,200

Smith is the cheapest goalie available tonight and there is good reason for that. He has just seven wins in 18 starts and the biggest underdogs of the night (+145). Smith has gone 3-5-2 with a 2.71 GAA and .928 SV% in December, while averaging 36.2 shots per game. Smith will rack up a bunch of points in saves and surprisingly he has gone 2-0-0 with a 1.44 GAA and .961 SV% in two starts vs. the Oilers this season, so there is potential for another upset.

Top 10 SaberSim Skater Projections: 

  1. Connor McDavid (C): DK-4.46 / FD-16.40
  2. Radim Vrbata (W): DK-4.09 / FD-14.51
  3. Leon Draisaitl (C): DK-3.90 / FD-14.39
  4. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D): DK-3.90 / FD-13.64
  5. Jakub Voracek (W): DK-3.42 / FD-12.28
  6. Alex Ovechkin (W): DK-3.36 / FD-11.96
  7. Martin Hanzal (C): DK-3.03 / FD-10.84
  8. John Carlson (D): DK-3.00 / FD-10.50
  9. Jordan Eberle (W): DK-2.98 / FD-10.62
  10. Milan Lucic (W): DK-2.91 / FD-10.61

Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid, Ivan Provorov, Jakub Voracek, John Carlson, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, Martin Hanzal, Mike Smith, Milan Lucic, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Peter Holland, Radim Vrbata, Travis Konecny