DailyFaceoff DFS Value Plays – February 10th
There are only two games tonight and typically when there are very few games, I like to give you folks my favourite value plays of the night. I get a lot of help from our friends at SaberSim when I do these for you and you should start your FREE 7-day Trial right now because their lineup tool is so easy to use and has helped me and many others cash in big this season.
This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings salaries as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.
FORWARDS
Jason Pominville – vs. TBL – $4,200
SaberSim Projection: 1.79
It has been a mostly disappointing season for Pominville, who has fallen well behind younger wingers like Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker and Mikael Granlund, who converted from a centre. However, Pominville has elevated his game in recent weeks and even had a four-point (2G / 2A) night in Winnipeg on Tuesday (11.5 DK Points). It wasn’t just that one game though. The veteran winger has collected five goals and 13 assists for 18 points in 16 games since January 7th—that’s tied with Sidney Crosby, Jeff Carter and Nazem Kadri for ninth in the NHL over that span. He might not log the big minutes he once did, but he comes in red-hot and very cheap.
Richard Panik – @ WPG – $4,000
SaberSim Projection: 2.78
Panik typically doesn’t produce a lot unless he is playing alongside Jonathan Toews and thankfully that is the case right now. Panik had a goal and assist in Minnesota on Wednesday and comes into tonight having registered two goals and four assists in his last seven games. The only downfall for Panik is he doesn’t shoot all that much, averaging just 1.57 shots per game over that span and 1.66 S/PG on the season. Panik also sees some power-play time with Toews and Marian Hossa, which makes him a solid value option on most nights.
Vladislav Namestnikov – @ MIN – $3,800
SaberSim Projection: 2.92
Namestnikov has picked up just 20 points (6G / 14A) in 50 games this season, but with Tyler Johnson out tonight, the young Russian will skate with Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. For some reason he has been better on the road than in Tampa Bay and comes into tonight with one goal, two assists and 2.0 shots per game in his last seven games. He’s cheap and has some nice upside given the talent level of his linemates.
Andrew Copp – vs. CHI – $3,700
SaberSim Projection: 2.32
While the Jets had injuries, Copp found himself in the top-6, but as they got healthier he didn’t move back down the lineup. The 22-year-old has played well in his new role, collecting four goals and two assists in his last nine games. Like Panik, he doesn’t shoot a tonne (just 1.44 S/PG over that span) but playing with the likes of Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler gives him plenty of offensive opportunities on any given night.
DEFENSEMEN
Josh Morrissey – vs. CHI – $3,300
SaberSim Projection: 1.38
Morrissey has logged big minutes in his first NHL season (18:50 TOI/GM) and recently moved to the left side of Jacob Trouba, who has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL this season. Morrissey doesn’t see power play time, but averages one shot and nearly 1.5 blocked shots per game. Now, those aren’t staggering numbers, but playing with Trouba makes him a decent option and he comes in with six points (1G / 5A) in his last 10 games.
Anton Stralman – @ MIN – $3,300
SaberSim Projection: 1.70
Unlike Morrissey, Stralman actually sees power play time. Stralman hasn’t has his best season, but the entire Lightning team has struggled to find success amidst an injury plagued season. However, Stralman has been shooting more than normal lately and come into play averaging 2.57 shots and 1.57 blocked shots in his last seven games—that provides a stable enough floor at $3,300.
Marco Scandella – vs. TBL – $3,100
SaberSim Projection: 1.86
Scandella isn’t going to light up the scoresheet, but he’s a great source of blocked shots at a near-basement salary. He has played huge minutes with Jonas Brodin out and has two assists while averaging 1.13 shots and 1.88 blocked shots in his last eight contests. Again, if you aren’t expecting a power play goal and a modest 3.0 DK points to allow you to spend big up front, you can do worse than Scandella on a quiet night.
GOALIE
Connor Hellebuyck – vs. CHI – $7,500
SaberSim Projection: 4.06
Hellebuyck is my value netminder of the night. He comes in $200 cheaper than Corey Crawford and $400 more than Andrei Vaslievkskiy, but with a better chance for a win in my eyes, the eyes of SaberSim and most important in the eyes of Vegas—the Jets sit at -110 odds vs. the Blackhawks as I write this. Hellebuyck has had an up and down season, but has been well rested since Ondrej Pavelec was called up and played very well in relief on Tuesday. Hellebuyck has stopped 48 of the last 51 shots that he’s faced (.941 SV%) and is a ridiculous 4-0-0 with a 1.25 GAA, .961 SV% and one shutout in four starts vs. the Blackhawks this season.