DailyFaceoff DFS Value Plays – February 20th
There are only two games tonight and typically when there are very few games, I like to give you my favourite value plays of the night. I get a lot of help from our friends at SaberSim when I do these for you and you should start your FREE 7-day Trial right now because their lineup tool is so easy to use and has helped me and many others cash in big this season.
This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings salaries as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.
Patrik Berglund (C) – vs. FLA – $4,600
SaberSim Projection: DK- 2.86
Berglund had a terrible start to the season, but has played much better recently. In his first 30 games, Berglund had just one goal and six assists (seven points) but has tallied 16 goals with one assist (17 points) in his last 29 games, including six goals in his last eight games. Even with Paul Stastny returning tonight, Berglund will centre the second line with Jaden Schwartz and Magnus Paajarvi on his wings and he will also see time on the second power play unit.
Brendan Perlini (W) – vs. ANA – $3,600
SaberSim Projection: DK- 3.17
Perlini had a slow start when he was recalled, but has scored three goals with two assists (five points) in his last eight games. He is playing big minutes at even-strength and sees time on the top power play unit as well. At $3,600, his heavy usage and the offensive ability that he’s showcased at all levels make him a nice value play.
Magnus Paajarvi (W) – vs. FLA – $2,900
SaberSim Projection: DK- 1.94
Paajarvi’s NHL career has not gone like expected when he was drafted No.10 overall in 2009, but he has played well since being called up on January 5th. The Swedish winger has two goals and one assist while averaging 2.5 shots on goal per game. He is averaging 12:20 TOI and is playing with Berglund, which could make for an extremely cheap stack option.
Michael Matheson (D) – vs. FLA – $3,700
SaberSim Projection: DK- 2.25
Matheson has been held scoreless in six straight games, but he has two goals while averaging 3.43 shots and 1.86 blocked shots in his last seven games. His counting stats provide him with a stable floor at a really reasonable price. He would be a great way to save some salary on the blueline tonight.
Mike Smith (G) – @ STL – $7,200
SaberSim Projection: DK- 4.24
Smith is a risky option, playing behind a weak Coyotes team, but he faces a tonne of shots and makes a lot of saves, thus earning a lot of DK points. Smith has won three of his last four starts while stopping 134 of the last 144 shots that he has faced (.931 SV%). Tonight he will take on a Ducks team that played last night and have scored just one goal in each of their last three games.