DailyFaceoff DFS Value Plays – January 11th

Updated: January 11, 2017 at 3:57 pm by Brock Seguin


There are just four games in the NHL tonight, but we’re here to talk about SaberSim for a minute. The creator of the NHL model that is used on SaberSim walked away with a cool $16,000 on DraftKings last night—that’s what this tool can do for you. Get a FREE 7-day Trial right now and start winning even more money!


This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings and FanDuel salary as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.

Value Picks

Mathieu Perreault (W) – vs. MTL – (DK-$4,200 / FD-$4,700)
SaberSim ProjectionDK-3.04 / FD-11.01

Perreault is in a great spot in the Jets’ lineup playing with Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler at even strength and on the top power play unit that features both of his linemates as well as Drew Stafford and Dustin Byfuglien. The Jets’ power play is solid and they’ll take on a Canadiens team that is 23rd on the penalty kill (79.5%) with Al Montoya in net, who has one of the worst shorthanded SV% in the NHL (.830)—ranks ninth worst in the league. Perreault comes in with one goal, two assists and is averaging 2.25 shots per game in his last eight.

Alex Chiasson (W) – vs. SJS – (DK-$3,800 / FD-$3,600)
SaberSim ProjectionDK-3.12 / FD-11.13

Chiasson is playing massive minutes on the Flames’ top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, which makes him a viable play tonight. Chiasson has two goals, one assist and is averaging 2.25 shots on goal per game over his last four. He’s obviously not the greatest offensive threat, but playing 17-plus minutes with two high calibre forwards like Gaudreau and Monahan and playing on the top PP helps his case.

T.J. Brodie (D) – vs. SJS – (DK-$3,800 / FD-$4,500)
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.67 / FD-9.44

Brodie is on pace for 31 points, which would be his worst offensive season since 2013-14, when he also had 31 points. A lot of that has to do with the strong play of Dougie Hamilton, but Brodie has been playing better as of late. He isn’t shooting a ton, but has five assists and 12 blocked shots while averaging 24:48 TOI in his last eight games. He also plays on the top power play unit with Chiasson, Gaudreau, Monahan and Kris Versteeg.

Connor Hellebuyck – vs. MTL – (DK-$7,300 / FD-$8,300)
SaberSim ProjectionDK-4.50 / FD-17.98

Hellebuyck was very sharp on Monday, making 28 saves in a shutout win over the Flames. Hellebuyck has won three of his last four starts while posting a 2.26 GAA and .932 SV% and has equally impressive numbers on home ice this season, having gone 10-5-1 with a 2.32 GAA and .924 SV% at the MTS Centre. He is the cheapest starting goalie available tonight and is worth taking a chance on.

Tuesday’s $16,000 Lineup

Screen Shot 2017-01-11 at 2.23.24 PM

Al Montoya, Alex Chiasson, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Connor Hellebuyck, Dougie Hamilton, Drew Stafford, dustin byfuglien, Johnny Gaudreau, kris versteeg, Mathieu Perreault, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie