DFO Ownership Report (11/09)
The Chalk: STL1
The line of Vladimir Tarasenko – Brayden Schenn- Jayden Schwartz has been an elite line all year and in the past two games they have been amazing. In the past two games they have combined for four goals and twelve assists. With the game at home against Arizona they will avoid the Derek Stepan line and most likely face off against the Dvorak line, which just makes STL1 an even stronger play. They have a very hefty price tag they also stay together on the power play, but because of all the reasons mentioned this line could see ownership upwards of 30%.
How to pivot:
Most people won’t feel comfortable stacking them with Alex Pietrangelo because the cost is so restrictive, but because of that you should be able to get all four of them together at relatively low ownership despite each individual ownership being high. You will need a cheap secondary line to make this possible and with Adam’s Line Matching article there are some very cheap lines that could work paired together. You could also full PP1 stack with the addition of Alex Steen.
They’ll be high owned in all levels (low entry to high entry) but the overall stack should be low.
Higher Owned: EDM1
EDM1 will be higher owned in high dollar, but McDavid is a big name that always draws ownership in lower entry. His price tag combined with Draisatl may scare people off the full line stack in the low buy ins, but the Devils don’t seem to matchup up specific lines at home which means the top line may get on the ice against the depth of New Jersey which obviously favors Edmonton. McDavid carries ownership no matter what stakes but I think there is an easy way to pivot tonight with him.
How to Pivot:
This is going to sound like such a simple answer but full stack the top line. The full line costs $20,700 to full stack, and especially at lower stacks using the full line on McDavid – Draisatl – Maroon will be somewhat lower owned as a whole even if McDavid is around 20%. A lot of people across all different buy in types like to use McDavid in a mini with Kelfbom but never full stack due to price. If you are using Edmonton tonight it would be advantageous to full stack the line and even pair them with someone like Klefbom to get them at even lower ownership.
PHI1
The top line of the Flyers is getting expensive, however I still believe they will be fairly popular tonight at all levels of buy in. They might even have a little more ownership at high buy ins because many people fading STL will pivot to a similarly priced Flyers team. The top of line of the Flyers, Claude Giroux – Sean Couturier – Jakob Voracek, is definitely a top play tonight, however if you have ownership concerns here’s how to pivot.
How to Pivot:
At lower stakes I don’t think you should fade due to ownership concerns. With the entry cap much higher at lower stakes the ownership will be pretty spread out after St. Louis. If you don’t agree with my assessment and want an alternative method the two ways to go would be this. Run a full four man stack with either Ghost or Provorov on the blue line. In lower entry the amount of people who full stack lines is low and the amount who full stack with a defenseman as well is even lower. This is a contrarian way to get exposure to “chalky” plays while not being chalky. The other way to pivot would to use PHI2 and mini Wayne Simmonds – Val Fippula – Shayne Gostisbehere. Those three are all on the top power play and give you exposure to a team in a very good matchup at lower ownership.