DailyFaceoff DFS Cheat Sheet – February 13th
There are only two games tonight:
- The Rangers, who hold down the first Wild Card spot in the East are in Columbus to take on a Blue Jackets team that sits second in the Metropolitan, but just two points up on the Rangers.
- The NHL’s second worst team, the Coyotes, are in Calgary to face a Flames team that sits just one point out of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.
This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings salary as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.
Forwards
Johnny Gaudreau – vs. ARI – $6,600
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.60
By all accounts, 2016-17 has been a disappointing season for Gaudreau, but he was one of the best players in the second half of the season last year and he’s trying to replicate that this year. In his last five games, Gaudreau has one goal, five assists and 2.8 shots on goal per game—that’s 4.0 DraftKings points per game (DKPPG). He and Sean Monahan are settling in (finally) and they have a nice matchup with the Coyotes visiting Calgary tonight.
Nick Foligno – vs. NYR – $5,900
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.16
If you know me, I’m not a big Foligno fan, but the Blue Jackets are a great team and Foligno has figured into a lot of goals this season. However, he has been held off of the score sheet in his last five consecutive games, despite firing 17 shots on goal (3.4 S/PG). With the amount of minutes he plays at even strength and on the power play, the points are coming. The Blue Jackets play host to Antti Raanta, who they lit up after they chased Henrik Lundqvist two weeks ago.
Sean Monahan – vs. ARI – $5,700
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.15
Monahan was in the top 10 in points in the second half of last year and he’s trying to do it again. Since January 13th, Monahan is tied for second in the NHL with nine goals and has added three assists for 12 points in that 12-span. Over that stretch he is averaging 3.5 shots per game, so he has a stable floor and his scoring more often than not, making him a great option right now.
Brandon Saad – vs. NYR – 5,600
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.04
Saad is one of the most underrated and best 5on5 scorers in the NHL, so you can’t expect him to be held down for long. He has gone pointless in his last four games, but has averaged 2.5 shots in that span and has maintained that average over the course of the season. He had a goal and assist in the last meeting between the Blue Jackets and Rangers and I like his potential to repeat that tonight.
Martin Hanzal – @ CGY – $4,800
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.12
The Coyotes certainly aren’t a great team, but Hanzal is playing really well right now and continues to drive his trade value up. Hanzal had a two-goal game against the Penguins on Saturday and has three goals and three assists in his last seven games. However, the most impressive part of that stretch is his 4.0 shots per game and 4.64 DKPPG. The Flames haven’t been great at keeping the puck out of their own net, so Hanzal and the Coyotes’ top line are an intriguing stack
Defensemen
Dougie Hamilton – vs. ARI – $5,400
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.52
Hamilton has had a nice season. He currently ranks fifth among all defensemen in shots (159) and has one goal, five assists while averaging 2.89 shots and 1.44 blocked shots per game in his last nine contests. He’s become the Flames’ blueliner to own and is a great option vs. Mike Smith and the Coyotes.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – @ CGY – $4,700
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.64
Ekman-Larsson isn’t having his best season, but he still has double-digit goals and 30 points through 53 games. His shot totals are down, but he’s still capable of having huge games, which is hard to find at $4,700. OEL has one goal and five assists (six points) in his last eight games.
Ryan Murray – vs. NYR – $3,300
SaberSim Projection: DK-1.02
I’m always looking to save some money on the blueline and I think Murray is a decent way to do that tonight. There aren’t a lot of options on a two-game night, but Murray, who has just 10 points (1G / 9A) in 49 games this season, is seeing over 20-minutes a night more often than not and is seeing sparse PP time. He has just three points (1G / 2A), but 2.13 shots and 1.88 blocked shots in his last eight games. There’s value to be had here if you need a cheap blueline option.
Goalies
Chad Johnson – vs. ARI – $8,300
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.79
The Flames continue to use a win and you’re in mentality, so Johnson gets the nod vs. Arizona after stopping 31 shots in their shootout win in Pittsburgh last week. The 30-year-old comes into Monday having gone 2-0-0 with a 0.99 GAA and .959 SV% in his first two starts against the Coyotes this season.
Sergei Bobrovsky – vs. NYR – $7,400
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.17
I like the Blue Jackets to beat the Rangers tonight, so I’m rolling with Bob. He hit a rough patch two weeks ago, but has since won two of three while turning away 80 of 86 shots (.930 SV%). The 28-year-old is an impressive 18-6-0 with a 1.92 GAA and .936 SV% at Nationwide Arena this season.