DFS Lines To Target: 01/13/20

It’s a typically quiet Monday night in the NHL with just five games on tap. Even with limited options, there’s still plenty of value to be found on tonight’s slate. I’ve gone over the top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!

High-Priced

Boston 1 – @Brad Marchand ($7,500), @Patrice Bergeron ($7,800), @David Pastrnak ($8,400)

Boston 1 is once again the top line to target on the slate. We’ve seen it time and time again over the last three seasons now, but the Bergeron line simply does not whiff on easy matchups, and that’s exactly what they’ll have tonight. With tonight’s game being in Philly, Alain Vigneault will be in control of the line-matching at 5v5.

Vigneault tends to use @Sean Couturier against the opponent’s top-line, and that tendency intensifies against a top-heavy team like Boston. That bodes well for the production of Boston 1 tonight, considering the Couturier line’s lackluster defensive numbers. Couturier and his winger @Jakub Voracek do an admirable job of creating offense at 5v5, but they surrender their fair share of scoring chances in the process. The Flyers are surrendering 26 scoring and 10 high-danger chances per 60 with Voracek and Couturier on the ice. Their third-line mate tonight will be @Michael Raffl, so don’t expect any drastic improvements on those defensive numbers.

Of course, Boston 1’s real upside stems from their power-play production, and there’s plenty of reason to like the special teams matchup here, too. Boston owns a 31.3 PP% over the last 30 days, the fourth-best rate in the league over that span. The Flyers have killed off just 77.5% of their penalties over that same stretch. It’ll cost you an arm and a leg to play the full Boston 1 stack tonight, but it projects to be worth it.

Mid-Range

Carolina 2 – @Nino Niederreiter ($4,000), @Sebastian Aho ($6,200), @Teuvo Teravainen ($5,800)

The Capitals made a slight pivot in their line-matching in their last home game, and that small tweak could mean big things for Carolina 2 tonight. Capitals coach Todd Reirden normally likes to use the @Nicklas Backstrom line against the opponent’s top offensive threat, but last game those duties shifted to @Evgeny Kuznetsov. That would suggest Kuznetsov would be tasked with shutting down Aho tonight (though they’re listed as the team’s second line, most opposing teams treat the Aho line as the Canes’ top offensive threat), and I’m not loving Kuznetsov’s chances.

Washington’s second line has been nothing short of a disaster in their own end, so it’s a wonder why Reirden would opt to use them in this way. They own an ugly 40.80 CF% and 40.29 SCF% at 5v5 this season. As you might already know, Aho and Teravainen are one of the most puck-dominant duos at 5v5 in the entire NHL. The expected shot volume makes them an incredibly secure pick in this matchup. It shouldn’t take more than a single line goal for the full stack to return value.

Value

Montreal 1 – @Tomas Tatar ($5,500), @Philip Danault ($4,800), @Ilya Kovalchuk ($4,300)

While the injury to @Brendan Gallagher was thought to be a serious blow to Montreal 1’s upside, Danault and Tatar have persevered in his absence. The pair continue to see the majority of the shots and chances at even strength despite routinely being hard-matched against opposing first lines. In 89 minutes at 5v5 without Gallagher this season, Tatar and Danault have registered an impressive 56.55 CF% and 52.00 SCF%. They should see Calgary’s first line at 5v5 tonight.

Calgary’s current top line of @Johnny Gaudreau, @Sean Monahan, and @Mikael Backlund offers plenty of firepower, but they struggle to get out of their own end. They’re averaging a robust 63 shot attempts and 34 scoring chances against per 60. Montreal 1 is exactly the kind of line they struggle against. Tatar and Danault’s upside also gets a slight boost ahead of tonight’s game thanks to a recent uptick in power-play time. Kovalchuk, for what it’s worth, has looked solid on the Canadiens’ top power-play unit. Some extra offensive zone time could result in another strong showing for him tonight.