DFS Lines to Target: 03/11/20

Updated: March 11, 2020 at 4:34 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

It’s a five-game slate for the NHL tonight, but you’ll notice only four of them are playable in DFS contests. There’s some uncertainty surrounding the stats of the rescheduled game between the Ducks and Blues, so DraftKings has opted to make the game unavailable for tonight’s contests. I’ve highlighted my favourite high-priced and value stacks for the remaining four games below. Good luck!


High-Priced

Winnipeg 1 – Kyle Connor ($7,200), Mark Scheifele ($6,400), Blake Wheeler ($5,900)

Winnipeg 1 should have no problem returning value at $19,500 for the full stack tonight. Wheeler, Scheifele, and Connor have done nothing but produce since being reunited on Winnipeg’s top line. They’ve combined for nine goals and ten assists in the team’s last six games. All three of them playing on the first power-play unit obviously boosts the stack’s upside, but the bulk of their production has come at even strength. The three of them are averaging a robust 31 scoring and 11 high-danger chances per 60. They should have no problem generating that kind of offense tonight given the projected matchup.

The Oilers don’t have a lot of strict line-matching tendencies on home ice, but they generally opt for a top-six vs top-six mix. That means the majority of Winnipeg 1’s 5v5 minutes should come against Edmonton 1 and 2. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl obviously generate offense at an elite rate, but they’ve been paying the price defensively. The McDavid line is surrendering a whopping 15 high danger chances per 60. The high-event, volatile matchup spread should bode well for Winnipeg 1’s production tonight. They’re a safe bet to find the back of the net at least once in Edmonton.

Value

Alex DeBrincat ($5,100), Jonathan Toews ($5,700), Brandon Saad ($4,700)

DeBrincat gets a well-deserved promotion to the top line ahead of tonight’s game against the Sharks, but his price hasn’t been adjusted accordingly. $5,100 is far too cheap for a first-line DeBrincat, and with Toews fresh off a dud of a performance against the Blues on Sunday, you can full-stack Chicago 1 for just $15,500 tonight. Toews and DeBrincat haven’t played together a lot at 5v5 this year, but they’ve been productive when given the chance. Chicago is averaging 29 scoring and 10 high-danger chances per 60 with the two of them on the ice.

Jeremy Colliton rarely does any sort of hard line-matching on home-ice. He generally uses a top-nine vs top-nine mix, opting only to shelter his fourth line. That frees up the Toews line of any sort of defensive burden at even strength, and it’s particularly rewarding against an injury-stricken team like the Sharks. Chicago 1 should see plenty of ice-time against sub-par competition tonight, with the likes of Noah Gregor, Joel Kellman, and Antti Suomela all set to centre lines for the Sharks. Add in the fact that Toews and DeBrincat play together on the top power-play unit, and it’s easy to see the value here. Saad’s power-play usage caps his upside, but his shot volume still makes him worth including in any Chicago 1 stack tonight.