DFS Lines To Target: 11/18/19
It’s a typically slow Monday night in the NHL with just two games on the slate. I’ve highlighted my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!
High-Priced
@Washington 1 – @Alex Ovechkin ($8,300), @Evgeny Kuznetsov ($6,700), @Tom Wilson ($5,200)
Fading Washington’s top line is an obvious risk on such a small slate. It’s hard to imagine cashing without some sort of exposure to Washington 1 tonight. Washington’s recent line-matching trends on home ice suggest their top line will be locked into a high-event matchup against the @Ryan Getzlaf line at even strength tonight. Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Wilson should have no problem generating offense at their typical, elite rate in that matchup. Adding to their upside tonight is the Ducks’ sub-par penalty-killing. Anaheim currently ranks 18th in the NHL with an 80.3 PK%. @John Gibson is the only real threat to this line’s production tonight.
Mid-Range
Los Angeles 1 – @Alex Iafallo ($4,000), @Anze Kopitar ($6,500), @Dustin Brown ($4,900)
You’ll have to pay up for Kopitar tonight, but his reasonably priced line-mates keep this full stack in the mid-range. This line’s sky-high usage gives them a pretty high floor against the Coyotes tonight. All three players are heavily featured in all situations, ranging between 17 and 20 minutes in average ice-time. They’ve been very productive at 5v5 this season, averaging 61 shot attempts and an even 30 scoring chances per 60. They should see a mix of the Coyotes top-nine at even strength tonight, a more than favourable matchup spread. Their puck dominance and usage make Los Angeles 1 one of the few safe bets on tonight’s slate.
Value
Arizona 1 – @Christian Dvorak ($3,900), @Nick Schmaltz ($4,500), @Conor Garland ($4,700)
At $13,100 for the full line, you won’t find a better value stack tonight than Arizona 1. The Dvorak-Schmaltz-Garland line has come together nicely. They’ve posted a 56.67 CF% and a 53.85 SCF% in 69:00 together at 5v5. They’ve done a nice job of hemming their opponents into their own end. You can expect more of the same from Arizona 1 tonight whenever they’re not out against the Kopitar line. As I briefly mentioned above, the Coyotes don’t tend to line-match beyond top-nine vs top-nine on home ice. The Schmaltz line would be a significant favourite over Los Angeles 2 and 3, which should lead to some above-average shot production tonight, at the very least. Add in the fact that all three of these players also receive substantial power-play time, and it’s easy to see the value here.