Erik Karlsson, Hall of Famer: His magical start to 2022-23 reminds us why

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Erik Karlsson, Hall of Famer: His magical start to 2022-23 reminds us why

“What… year is it?!” The bewildered patient stammers, scratching at his long, craggly beard.

“It’s 2022, sir.”

The man begins to thrash and panic in his bed, struggling, his muscles still atrophied from the coma.

“I’ve been asleep six years? What’s happening in the world?”

“Well,” the doctor says. “Erik Karlsson is the most dominant defenseman in the –“

“Ahh,” he says, calming down. “Nothing’s changed.”

And…scene. A silly imaginary vignette like that is the best method I could conjure up to illustrate just how strange Erik Karlsson’s 2022-23 season has been to date. Half a decade ago, he was on the short list of the best players on the planet, in the discussion with Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby, having captained the Ottawa Senators to within a single goal of reaching the 2016-17 Stanley Cup final.

Karlsson was a hockey deity, the greatest offensive defenseman of his generation. This was before Cale Makar and Adam Fox and Roman Josi began throwing up video-game stats, lest we forget. Karlsson was doing things no blueliner had done this millennium. He led the NHL in assists in 2015-16; no D-man had done that since Bobby Orr in 1975-76. Karlsson finished top 10 in overall scoring in 2011-12 and 2015-16; Orr, Denis Potvin and Paul Coffey are the only other defensemen in league history to do so twice. Karlsson, blessed with sublime skating and an ability to control a game, was on an easy Hall of Fame trajectory, already armed with two Norris Trophies.

But then, in summer 2017, after that playoff run had taken its toll, he had major ankle surgery that involved removing half the bone, as he explained it at the time. It cost him the first five games of the 2017-18 season, one in which the Senators imploded and began a long rebuild process. He missed 11 games that season. Karlsson was traded to the San Jose Sharks in a blockbuster before the 2018-19 season, and he missed 29 games that year thanks to a lower-body injury and a groin injury. The following season: 13 missed games. Broken thumb. The season after that? Four missed games with a lower-body injury. Last season: COVID-19, left forearm surgery and a lower-body injury sucked away 32 games.

Karlsson had become an afterthought, a ghost chewing up more than $11 million in cap space on some irrelevant Sharks teams. Since the trade, he had played 211 of the Sharks’ 290 games, missing 27 percent of them.

The thing is, though: he was still driving the play pretty darn well when he was in the lineup. In the three seasons preceding this one, 11 defensemen played at least 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 for the Sharks, and Karlsson was one of two with a shot-attempt share of better than 50 percent when he was on the ice, which is impressive considering he was out there for 24 minutes per game, give or take, and facing tough competition. During that three-season sample, his most common opponents included Jonathan Marchessault, Anze Kopitar, Clayton Keller, Mikko Rantanen and so on – Karlsson was always matched against opponents’ top-six forwards. Even the hobbled version of him, creeping into his 30s, was managing to break even or better.

And now? The coma guy would wake up and feel like it’s still 2017. Karlsson is breaking the game, tied for second in the NHL in scoring with a staggering 11 goals and 28 points in 19 games, healthy and not having missed a game. He’s pace for a 47-goal, 121-point season. That’s Orr- or Coffey-level greatness.

Obviously, with the year he’s having, Karlsson trade talk will hit a fever pitch a couple months from now as the Sharks continue to sink in the Pacific Division. We have plenty of time to speculate on that.

But for now? Let’s speculate on Karlsson’s Hall of Fame case. I wouldn’t say the past four seasons had killed it, but they at least mothballed the discussion and raised the question of whether he had been dominant enough for long enough. But now, based on what he’s accomplishing this season? He’ll cement himself as a Hall of Famer.

And, honestly, he already was one. Karlsson was already a two-time Norris Trophy winner. Only 13 defensemen have won the Norris more than once, and the 11 of them who are eligible for induction are Hall of Famers. Duncan Keith will join that group once eligible, too, likely as a first-ballot inductee. Karlsson was a four-time first-team all-star. He’s one of 14 blueliners to earn four or more first-team nods.

Karlsson passes the apex test in that he was the most dominant offensive defenseman in the game for the better part of a decade. This player card from Adjusted Hockey’s Paul Pidutti shows that Karlsson has a pretty easy Hall of Fame case.

Courtesy of Paul Pidutti

Even factoring in his lost years in San Jose, he rates as the 14th-best blueliner of his era, and his ‘High Noon’ peak period puts him at No. 2. Frankly, I’m surprised he was only No. 2.

Courtesy of Paul Pidutti

Karlsson owns two of the top 10 and three of the top 13 single-season point totals by a defenseman this century. He’s second only to Brent Burns, who spent some time at forward, in points by a defenseman this century. So if we look at what Karlsson had accomplished before this season, he was already deserving of first-ballot consideration.

But if he stays healthy and adds another all-star selection and a third Norris Trophy this season? That makes him an absolute lock.

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