Facing Off: Where to Draft Sidney Crosby?

Welcome to ‘Facing Off’ where our wonderful staff gives their opinion on one choice topic. In our first edition of this season, our staff argues the merits of drafting Sidney Crosby. Up next: Where do you feel Crosby deserves a pick?

By Dan Berlin

The Sidney Crosby debate – where to draft him this year?

Sidney Crosby – 5th Overall Pick in 2011-12 Fantasy Draft (non-keeper)

When it comes to a healthy Sid the Kid, there’s no debate; Crosby is the best player – and most prolific scorer – in the NHL. Before getting knocked out of action on January 5th last season, Crosby was on pace for a staggering 130+ point season, a total not seen in the league since the mid-90’s, putting him a good 25 points clear of the next best scorer (D. Sedin).

But can he recapture his old glory this season? That’s the question on the minds of fantasy owners everywhere.

Crosby would best be considered a calculated risk heading into this season, and that’s why I have him going at #5. Despite not being cleared for contact, there is plenty of optimism of late surrounding his return; the latest news stating Crosby remains symptom-free in training camp, while recently taking part in a controlled scrimmage with his Pens’ teammates.

The bottom line is it looks like Crosby is going to return to Penguins’ lineup this regular season, likely sooner rather than later.

When you consider his 1.61 point-per-game pace of a season ago, if Crosby does return to his all-world form, he would only have to play in 65 games to match Daniel Sedin’s league-leading point total of 104 in 2010-11.

Of course, with head injuries, there are no guarantees. Considering how delicately the team, and Crosby, have handled his comeback, a more realistic scenario might see Sid only manage to get into, say, 50 games. In that case, even if were to record an impressive 1.5 points-per-game, he would only finish with 75 points. Certainly not what you had in mind with your top-ten pick.

Still, the upside with Crosby is potentially huge. If he is declared fit early on in the season, and get into 65+ games for Pittsburgh, then the sky’s the limit. It
is, however, a big “if”.

By Alexander Monaghan

Take a look back at last season’s first round. We didn’t have Corey Perry or Ryan Getzlaf despite always being first rounders. Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise were also well regarded picks in the top 10. This landscape changes every year with Bobby Ryan currently creeping into the standard mix and Kovalchuk, Parise and Getzlaf falling into the second and third rounds. Whether you believe in their merit or not, they are arguably top line talent, available after the first round. Which is why I advocate taking Crosby after staples like Henrik Sedin, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos and a select few others. Simply put: you won’t find anyone with Sid’s talent level available after the first round unless it is Sid.

Additionally, we can look at his current road to recovery and feel optimistic. Even though he hasn’t found himself playing in any exhibition games, it sounds like getting cleared for contact is the next step. Once he gets hit, the only thing we can do is cross our fingers and hope he bounces right back. Patrice Bergeron eventually did, as did numerous other concussed skaters. Then again, some players did not. If anyone in the game can bounce back, it would be Sid. His talent level is simply on another level which is something I feel this injury has taken away from him. He isn’t Eric Lindros in the shadow of Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux; he’s Gretzky or Lemieux. When the top tier of forwards are off the board, take the leap and grab Crosby. At this point he could play 60+ games; he’s really not too far away.

By Bryce Crittenden

Sidney Crosby – 16th Overall Pick in 2011-2012 Fantasy Draft (non-keeper)

When I’m making my first selection in a hockey draft I want to make sure that whoever I take will be the leading scorer on my team. I want that player to be
healthy and to be a sure thing. I figure that I’ve got other rounds where I can gamble on a rookie, an unsigned player, or in this case a player who’s still
injured. Now, even if Crosby comes back around Christmas there’s a good chance that he’ll still get at least 65-70 points. To me there’s at least another 15 players that will score more than that.

Therein lies the problem with drafting Sidney Crosby. Nobody knows when he’s going to come back. He might play in the Penguins first game of the season or he might not even play at all. The Penguins and Crosby have clearly indicated that Sid won’t be back until he’s 100% healthy. If he had some knee surgery in the off-season we could all take a guess about when he would come back and at least be close. It worries me that he still hasn’t been cleared for contact yet and it’s because of that I won’t be taking him in the first round of my draft this weekend.

By Reggie Yinger

Sidney Crosby’s health is certainly a hot topic of debate among fantasy owners entering the 2011-2012 campaign. With no definitive return date set for the talented center, owners must decide when to draft Sid and gamble on the amount of production they will see from him. He hasn’t been officially ruled out for the start of the season, but it’s likely he will miss a few games, as he has yet to participate in any contact drills. However, reports from camp show that Crosby is in playing shape and has been skating at 100-percent.

Prior to the injury last season, Crosby was on pace to produce career high numbers in every major statistical category. When healthy, he can carry any fantasy team for long periods of time, as shown by a 25-game point streak (26 goals, 24 assists) last December.  It’s important to remember that Crosby accomplished all of his stats in basically half of the games it took other players to produce the same amount of stats. Even if he misses the first month of the season, Sidney will have enough time to produce big numbers for owners who take a chance on him in the first round. He’s worth the gamble of a middle-to-late draft pick in the first round of yearly draft leagues.

By Chris Wassel

The Sidney Crosby debate rides again — where to draft the premier talent in the NHL this year?

*Sidney Crosby — 15th overall pick in 2011-12 Fantasy Draft (non-keeper)

*This is based on optimistic projections. The pessimistic ones featured all sorts of gloom and doom for Crosby owners, almost to the point where Crosby
had slid as low as the fourth or fifth round in quite a few non-keeper leagues.

Now that Crosby is skating in “controlled scrimmages”, we have to ask ourselves as well as owners, what is a “controlled scrimmage”? Think back to say baseball where there are simulated games, the player rehabbing undergoes all of the conditions of a game with a few minor variables taken out of the equation. They are heavily monitored to hopefully avoid any further setbacks.

Whenever Sidney Crosby does come back (which appears to be sometime at or before [American] Thanksgiving), I want every single fantasy owner to remember one essential concept. Sidney Crosby is partially the reason why Sidney Crosby is in this situation. He took a calculated risk because there were no NHL protocols at the time for concussions. Now there is a protocol but it honestly does not do enough. It does put players at further risk for worse injuries (just ask Marc Savard who will likely never play again).

Think of Sidney Crosby as a calculated risk. If he were to slip to the second round and it comes to your turn, no one is going to get on your case for drafting him. Besides, from all indications I have heard, this part of the recovery process has gone very well without even a slight setback. Crosby last saw the ice nearly nine months ago (at press time). Think about that for a second. There will be a tiny bit of rust that none of us will really see but few will know it is there.

That is why he will be brought on very slowly and play very few back to backs if at all this year. Projections indicate he could play anywhere from 45-55 games and tally somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-70 points. He will see a lot more time on the ice on power play situations as well in order to transition him into the NHL pace. His point per game average was 1.61 last year, I expect it to be about 1.2 to 1.3 this year, barring another injury.

Injuries will be up again this year because of scheduling, player conditioning, and these new “rules” that the NHL is enforcing. Suspensions will also be a significant impact as well so Crosby could benefit greatly by the “new rules”. Drafting him in the first round is too big of a risk to venture at this juncture in time.

By Ryan Campbell

Sidney Crosby – 17th overall pick in 2011-12 Fantasy Draft (non-keeper)

While the other guys have really zeroed in on Crosby’s symptoms, skills and rehab schedule, I would like to go a simpler route and tackle a general fantasy hockey philosophy. Yes, Crosby is the best player in the NHL, and likely the only player that has a shot at a 125 point season, but fantasy leagues are lost, and never won, in the first round.

My philosophy is to remain conservative in the first round. At the end of the day, there isn’t a lot of difference between Steven Stamkos and Henrik
Sedin suiting up at center for your squad, as long as they both play 75+ games. It is almost impossible to differentiate yourself in the first round. Fantasy hockey leagues are won by snagging a 65 point player or 30 win goalie in the 13th round. The goal of the first round is to ensure that you have a consistent player, and didn’t select a gaping hole waiting to happen. That is what Crosby is this year.

Sure Crosby might score a 100 points this year, but so could the Sedin’s, Ovechkin, St. Louis, Getzlaf, Perry and Malkin. Personally, I’m going to go
with a player who may be less talented but also isn’t one well-placed elbow away from the Eric Lindros Hall of Fame.

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