Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Florida Panthers: 1st Atlantic Division, defeated Washington 4-2 in first round.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 3rd Atlantic Division, defeated Toronto 4-3 in first round.
Schedule (ET)
Tuesday, May 17, 7 p.m.: Tampa Bay at Florida (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Thursday, May 19, 7 p.m.: Tampa Bay at Florida (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 22, 1:30 p.m.: Florida at Tampa Bay (TNT, Sportsnet, TVA Sports)
Monday, May 23, 7 p.m.: Florida at Tampa Bay (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Wednesday, May 25, TBD: Tampa Bay at Florida (TBD)
*Friday, May 27, TBD: Florida at Tampa Bay (TBD)
*Sunday, May 29, TBD: Tampa Bay at Florida (TBD)
The Skinny
The Battle of Florida arrives for a second straight postseason, but the feel is different this time around. Last season, Panthers were just getting used to the idea of being contenders when they fell to the eventual-champion Lightning in six games. This time around, the Cats are arguably the favorites, the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners, hoping to avenge last year’s defeat. They got a scare against the underdog Washington Capitals in Round 1 but rallied to take the series in six. The Lightning fought back from a 3-2 series deficit against the Toronto Maple Leafs to win Round 1 in seven games and have now earned nine straight series victories on their quest for a Stanley Cup three-peat. How much gas is left in their collective tank?
Head to Head
Florida: 2-1-1
Tampa Bay: 2-2-0
The Panthers and Lightning played some wild ones in 2021-22, with their four games averaging 8.5 goals. Most notably, they took turns humiliating each other in their final two meetings. Florida pummelled Tampa 9-3 on Dec. 30 with Tampa’s first- and second-string netminders, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brian Elliott, unavailable to play. The Lightning avenged the defeat with an 8-4 beatdown April 24, spreading the eight-spot between Panthers goaltenders Spencer Knight (five goals) and Sergei Bobrovsky (three).
Top Five Scorers (through Round 1)
Florida
Carter Verhaeghe: 12 points
Claude Giroux: 7 points
Aleksander Barkov: 6 points
Aaron Ekblad: five points
Sam Reinhart/Sam Bennett/Jonathan Huberdeau: 3 points
Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov: 8 points
Victor Hedman: 7 points
Ross Colton: 5 points
Ondrej Palat: 5 points
Nick Paul/Brayden Point/Steven Stamkos/Brandon Hagel/Alex Killorn: 4 points
X-Factor
The Florida Panthers’ special teams were closer to a strength than a weakness in the regular season. Armed with so much offensive talent, they had the league’s No. 5 power play (24.4 percent). It was a big reason why they scored more goals than any NHL team in the past 26 years. Their penalty kill was merely fine at 16th (79.5). In Round 1? Their power play went an astonishing 0 for 18 against the Capitals, while their penalty kill got torched for seven goals in 24 Washington opportunities, good for a 70.8-percent killing efficiency. Yikes. If someone told you a team would win a series – in six games, to boot – with those special teams numbers, would you believe them? The Panthers will have to snap out of their power-play funk in particular if they hope to punish a Lightning team that ranked among the least disciplined in the regular season and in the first round against Toronto. Superstar left winger Jonathan Huberdeau needs to find his touch after finishing fourth in the NHL with 38 power-play points in the regular season.
Offense
The Panthers’ offense was historic this regular season. They were the first team this millennium to average four or more goals per game. During Round 1 against Washington, the power play dried up, but the Panthers were fine at 5-on-5, leading the 16-team playoff field in goals per 60 minutes. The Lightning had to weather the storm against a potent Leaf team in Round 1, but the Panthers were even better offensively during the regular season. Will their superstars show up stronger than in Round 1, however? Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov combined for 3 goals in six games against Washington. Carter Verhaeghe did most of the team’s heavy lifting, rattling off an incredible six goals and 12 points in six games, including three of four game-winners. With Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger eliminated from the playoffs, Verhaeghe is right there with Edmonton’s Connor McDavid atop the early Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings.
The Lightning were their usual sturdy selves without being elite offensively in the regular season, partially because key scorers such as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point didn’t play full seasons. In the playoffs, the Bolts started slowly, shut out by the Leafs in Game 1, but found their groove, notching 24 goals in the next six games and finding ways to get their power play going. Elite skill players like Kucherov and blueliner Victor Hedman control the game’s tempo. When Hedman in particular gets involved in the rush, the Lightning are extremely tough to beat.
With the Lightning’s top shooter, Steven Stamkos, having an unlucky series against the Leafs, failing to convert his many quality chances, the Lightning’s long list of role players stepped up. Ross Colton had some big games, while Nick Paul delivered both Tampa goals in Game 7. If Point ends up missing some or all of this series (keep reading), the Lightning will have to rely on depth scoring even more than usual.
Defense
On the whole, the Panthers were a strong defensive team this season – it’s hard not to be when you have Aaron Ekblad and MacKenzie Weegar on defense and Aleksander Barkov and Anton Lundell at forward – but they did get involved in a lot of track meets and quietly sat in the bottom third of the NHL in preventing high-danger chances at 5-on-5. They bottled up the Caps reasonably well at 5-on-5 in Round 1 but still allowed a decent number of 10-bell chances. Their penalty kill is the greater concern. The Lightning power play found its way as the Leafs series progressed and will sting the Panther penalty killers if they can’t get on track.
The Bolts are a disciplined defensive team, top to bottom, especially when it comes to protecting third-period leads – a skill to which Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe tipped his hat after Game 7. In Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli and Point, they have a line that can erase other teams’ stars, especially during games in Tampa, where coach Jon Cooper has the last change. That’s why home-ice advantage is so crucial for the Panthers. Between the beastly top pair of Hedman and Erik Cernak and deploying Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev on their own pairs, the Lightning D-corps is as big and mobile as any in the league. The Lightning also killed penalties at an 85.7-percent rate in Round 1 against a Toronto team that had the league’s top power play in the regular season. That’s scary news for a Florida team seeking its first power-play goal of the playoffs.
Goaltending
Sergei Bobrovsky entered Round 1 with the lowest career playoff save percentage of any active goalie with 10 or more games played. Did he do enough to change his playoff choker reputation? That’s debatable. He posted a .906 SV% for the series, including two games south of .900 and just one game north of .919. According to the 5-on-5 expected goals against numbers, Bobrovsky’s workload wasn’t that difficult against Washington, either. He wasn’t a disaster but wasn’t a hero. Florida’s net is his but, with a capable young backup behind in him in Spencer Knight, ‘Bob’ will have to play well to keep the No. 1 job. It was Knight that Florida turned to for the final two games of last year’s playoff series loss to Tampa.
As for Vasilevskiy? We know who he is. He’s the best money goalie in the game. He uncharacteristically allowed three or more goals every time out in Games 1-6, but he saved his best play for when his team needed it most. From the third period of Game 6 through the end of Game 7, Vasilevskiy stopped 43 of 44 Toronto shots, posting a .977 save percentage, looking enormous and confident in his net. He’s this generation’s Patrick Roy, the consummate winner you trust in high-stakes situations.
Injuries
Point’s health is the biggest story to open this series. He led the Lightning in goals in the 2020 and 2021 playoff runs with 14 each year and plays a crucial role on the shutdown side of things, too. His injury in Game 7 after getting his skate awkwardly caught on the boards looked bad. He was too hobbled to finish the game. Will he be healthy enough to play in this series? Cooper said Monday that Point is doubtful for Game 1 but day-to-day overall. Corey Perry missed practice, too, but Cooper was optimistic Perry would be OK for Game 1.
On the Panthers side, young winger Mason Marchment, fresh off a breakout campaign, suffered a lower-body injury against Washington that cost him Games 5 and 6. He’s is doubtful for Game 1 against Tampa.
Intangibles
The Panthers had a case of the yips against the Capitals in Round 1, falling behind 2-1 in the series, needing a comeback overtime win in Game 4 and blowing a third-period lead in Game 6 before winning in overtime. Viewed differently: Florida was tested and persevered in the clutch. But do you think the back-to-back champion Lightning will blink at the ‘Comeback Cats’ storyline? The Panthers, who carry high expectations after their best regular season ever, will have to shake off the pressure. If they don’t show up as their best selves to start the series, the Lightning will smell the weakness.
On the flip side: how much hockey do the Bolts have left in them? That’s 55 playoff games and counting since the bubble tournament started in summer 2020. They spoke of the Toronto series as one of the toughest during their run. How much did it take out of them? No team has won three consecutive Cups since the New York Islanders’ dynastic run of the early 1980s. The legs give out eventually.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
The Daily Faceoff crew is split right down the middle on this one. We’re expecting an extremely close series. The Lightning have the experience edge, and the Panthers’ special teams woes are a problem, but the Lightning had a tougher go of things in Round 1. We’re not sure if they have the stamina to hang in against the deepest, most well-rounded team in the East. Panthers in 7.
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