It’s always a difficult process making player projections at the start of a fantasy season but what happens when we think the world of a player and he falls completely short of his lofty expectations? When making preseason projections, analysts take everything into account – past trends, a previous season’s playoff performance, their team, their age, and anything else we can justify. We’re defining a disappointing season as a player who finished at a final season ranking about 100 off of their Yahoo! O-Rank. Here are the notable ones:
O-Rank: 39; Final Rank: 348
Osgood is pretty much the epitome of a player who’s postseason performance influences their O-Rank for the next season. Osgood was ranked 404th in the 2008-09 season but his stellar postseason play launched him to a preseason rank of 39. Hopefully you didn’t fall into the Ozzy trap and if you did, you capitalized on Jimmy Howard’s stellar season. There’s no guarantee Osgood will be back next season but if he is, please don’t draft him.
O-Rank: 43; Final Rank: 466
Injuries held Franzen to only 21 points in 27 games – 11 on the powerplay – but don’t let that fool you in ’10-11. He’s a solid fantasy contributor when healthy and will approach point-per-game status again, even if his O-Rank drops.
O-Rank: 44; Final Rank: 194
The Fleury doubters finally got their chance to say “I told you so” this year when Fleury fell apart in February. Say what you will about his finish, Fleury is still an elite goaltender on an elite team and he needs one more season of poor play before he falls out of that category. Fleury actually matched his GAA and win totals from last season, it was only a decrease in shutouts and SV% that hurt his stock this season.
O-Rank: 45; Final Rank: 330
Did Patrick Marleau’s resurgence or Michalek’s departure shatter Setoguchi’s follow-up to his 2008-09 breakout season? Dropping down to the 2nd line for most of the year, Seto could never really get anything going. With the possibility of Marleau heading out of town this offseason, Setoguchi gets a bit more stock next year barring any new pick-ups by the Sharks but the fact that Seto couldn’t muster up anything in a contract year has me concerned. Nevertheless, he’s a good sleeper candidate for a bounce-back year given the offensive potential around him and his age.
O-Rank: 46; Final Rank: 141
The sad thing is Turco didn’t really have too bad of a season for the Stars, with increases in shutouts and lower GAA and SV% than last season – yet, it looks like he’ll get chased right out of Dallas. Turco shouldn’t see anymore action as a regular starter in the NHL anymore but if you are looking for a good spot starter in deep rounds, Turco could fit that role depending on which team he signs with. Either way, he’s a lot closer to an Osgood than a Fleury next season.
O-Rank: 47; Final Rank: 196
Phil Kessel was supposed to help compliment Blake’s 63-point 2008-09 season but they didn’t even line up together often enough to work out. Maybe it’s because the former 40-goal scorer only had two goals after the first two month of the year. He managed to salvage 16 on the year but even a new home in Anaheim won’t bring out that 40-29-69 season again.
Stay tuned for Part 3!