Gear: Examining the Colorado Avalanche’s roster and cap construction

Chris Gear
Chris Gear
Gear: Examining the Colorado Avalanche’s roster and cap construction

Part one in a two-part series examining the Colorado Avalanche’s roster and salary cap construction.

I recently wrote that Lord Stanley must be keeping sunscreen on hand for the likely event that the Cup remains in the state of Florida for another season.  However, I have a sneaking suspicion that just to be safe, he may be putting some ski boots and an oxygen tank on layaway for a potential lengthy stay in the Mile High City. 

The Colorado Avalanche are a team that have been in the Stanley Cup conversation for a few years, but it’s time for more than just talk. Fueled by the disappointment of premature playoff exits past, could this be the year that the Avs put the heartbreak behind them and reach the pinnacle?

As we approach the All-Star Break, the Avs are the class of the Western Conference and a threat to repeat as winners of the Presidents’ Trophy. However, with some key expiring contracts over the next two seasons, time may be running out for this group to etch their names on the chalice.

This is a two-part piece. Today, I’ll examine how the Avs have successfully built a team poised to win it all. Later this week, I’ll take a look at how they might deal with the cap challenges ahead, so as to keep their championship window from closing too soon.      

The Avs’ success starts with Nathan MacKinnon, one of the league’s most dominant and exciting players, who also happens to be one of the most underpaid players in the league for what he delivers. At a modest cap charge of $6.3 million for this season and next, Colorado would be well served to capitalize on his high cap value before it has to find a way to re-sign him. Still only 26, MacKinnon will be due a king’s ransom when his current deal expires.

MacKinnon’s current high-value deal isn’t just a lucky break for the Avs. His contract was the first in a strategic pattern by the club to reward its top players by investing in them early with term, perhaps overpaying them initially and reaping the benefits of a bargain later. Other teams that opted to ‘bridge’ players with a smaller second contract to a larger third contract may have paid less in the short term, but have often ultimately paid the price in the long term.

When the Avalanche handed MacKinnon $44 million over seven years in July 2016 following his entry level deal, it was a big swing.

Now it looks like grand larceny.      

The investment didn’t stop there. In 2019, then 22-year old Mikko Rantanen was rewarded for his stellar entry-level contract performance with a six-year, $55.5 million deal and smooth-skating d-man Samuel Girard was inked to a seven-year deal worth $35 million.

Then came Cale Makar, one of the most gifted defensemen we’ve seen in a generation. Makar was the prize the Avalanche reaped for finishing dead last in the league in 2016-17, a dreadful season in which they amassed only 48 points. The Avs watched three teams leapfrog them in the draft lottery, only to find the best player anyway in Makar. The hockey gods smiled on Denver that day.

At the time of Makar’s second contract signing last summer, the high-water mark for restricted free agent defensemen coming out of their entry-level contracts was that of the guy drafted one slot ahead of him in 2017, Miro Heiskanen, who signed for eight years at $8.45 million per year. 

As someone with a keen interest in the outcome while in my former role with the Vancouver Canucks, I expected (and hoped) Makar’s deal would come in at $9 million on an eight-year term, a healthy raise on Heiskanen, but still in the same stratosphere. 

Instead, the Avs gave Makar $9 million per year on just a six-year pact, leaving him two extra unrestricted free agent-eligible years to eventually blow Heiskanen’s average annual contract value out of the water. (That deal put upward pressure on the Quinn Hughes contract.)

Rather than balking at the high number for a contract with only one UFA year built into it, the Avs invested in Makar at a number that projected his future value and his place among the league’s elite defensemen.  If Makar keeps playing the way he has, that $9 million might end up looking like an even better steal than MacKinnon. 

Maybe Crime Stoppers needs to open a file on Joe Sakic and his partner in crime, assistant GM Chris MacFarland.

Colorado’s strategy of investing in its top-end players was also evident in its four-year commitment to Devon Toews, after acquiring him in 2020 from the Islanders. This strategy was again evident this past offseason when it came time to re-up their captain, Gabriel Landeskog. Colorado had the courage to leave him unprotected in the Expansion Draft, relying on its relationship with the player and its past commitment to him and his teammates to feel secure that he would re-sign with them instead of joining the expansion Kraken. 

That move paid off, as the Avs were successful in re-signing Landeskog to a eight-year deal with an average annual value of $7 million, while also allowing them to protect an additional player in the Expansion Draft.  Landeskog will be 37 in the final year of the deal, so the deal won’t age as well as the deals for their other stars, but he is still massively productive now and for a team with Cup aspirations, letting your heart and soul captain walk away would not have made any sense.       

As impressive as Colorado’s willingness to invest in its core players has been, it’s the around-the-edges trade and cap work that has really driven this team forward. Management has been able to show faith in the team’s core players, while making a few shrewd trades and deftly navigating the salary cap around them. 

In a masterful move this past offseason, the Avs let their starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer walk in free agency and then made a trade to get both better and cheaper at the position. Darcy Kuemper, whose play was excellent but somewhat under-the-radar on a weak Arizona team, was acquired to provide the reliable backstop a contender needs. Kuemper’s $4.5 million cap hit saved the team $1.4 million, compared to what Grubauer signed for in Seattle. 

The Avs did part with a first-round draft pick, a conditional third-round pick and defensive prospect Connor Timmins in the trade. But with the promising Bowen Byram in the mix, Timmins was expendable and the first-round pick will be at the very bottom of the first round. 

Tidy business by the Avs.

The Avs also got out in front of their expansion protection problem, successfully convincing veteran defenseman Erik Johnson to waive his no-move clause to allow them to protect their young defensemen. They also traded Ryan Graves and his $3.16 million per year cap hit to New Jersey to make room for other signings, while recovering assets for the player they were most likely to lose to Seattle. 

The Avs have weathered the loss of Graves, as well as solid contributors Brandon Saad, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Joonas Donskoi (the Kraken’s ultimate expansion selection) by inserting emerging players such as Alex Newhook and Logan O’Connor, while plucking Nicolas Aube-Kubel off waivers from Philadelphia. 

But no one has done more to elevate his game than Kadri. The always-useful Kadri is now suddenly a scoring machine at age 31. He has been an absolute revelation this year, sitting close to the top of the NHL leaderboard in points and is already on the verge of obliterating his previous career-high point totals – at the midway point of the season. 

Kadri’s performance is another reason the team is best positioned to have its Cup breakthrough this year.  Kadri is on an expiring contract and will be an unrestricted free agent. With his point totals now matching his annoyance factor in a way that only Boston’s Brad Marchand can rival, Kadri is due for a hefty raise from his current $4.5 million cap hit. 

In addition to Kadri, the Avs will have to consider extensions for two other solid performers on expiring deals.  Valeri Nichuskin and André Burakovsky are talented wingers that will very likely set career highs in goals and points this season and will want to be rewarded with raises. 

The Avalanche’s front office has proven to be very adept at picking the right players to invest in and then reshuffling the deck to support their key investments. With so many players having scoring success and approaching the end of their contracts, that task will only get harder from here. 

The window may be starting to close a little on this Avs team, but right now, all of the pieces are in place.  If there is any team that can wrestle the Cup away from the Florida sun and give it a snowy new home, it’s the Avalanche.

Later this week: Part two on how the Avalanche can navigate new deals for Kadri, Nichushkin, Burakovsky and ultimately MacKinnon.

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Chris Gear joined Daily Faceoff in Jan. 2022 after a 12-year run with the Vancouver Canucks, most recently as the club’s Assistant General Manager and Chief Legal Officer. Before migrating over to the hockey operations department, where his responsibilities included contract negotiations, CBA compliance, assisting with roster and salary cap management and governance for the AHL franchise, Gear was the Canucks’ vice president and general counsel.

Click here to read Gear’s other Daily Faceoff stories.

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