Greeley: Early season ‘Change of Scenery’ candidates in NHL

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

One exercise nearly every NHL front office keeps close tabs on is a running “change of scenery” list throughout the season. The idea stems from former Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, who detailed the list’s fruits in his book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse.”

Epstein tasked his scouting and operations staffs with identifying players that were missing the marks in their quant and data studies, likely underachieving as young pro players. In the book, Epstein detaild how the team acquired future star Anthony Rizzo, who was once considered a future All-Star by most everyone in baseball, but by the time he was 21, the San Diego Padres organization was ready to move on.

The Cubs pounced. Now a three-time All-Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner, Rizzo is the perfect example of striking gold through a “change of scenery” list.

An effective “change of scenery” list should be monitored and updated weekly. Identifying the players that are falling out of favor before, as Epstein says they “become a household name,” is your only chance to acquire the player at below true ‘market value.’ Daily Faceoff plans on updating our own “change of scenery” list that will have new names added throughout the season.

What factors go into a “change of scenery” player in the NHL?

Lack of ice time
Road block in the current organizations depth chart that prevent player success
Not meeting expectations of where they were selected in draft
Minimal special teams usage in an area where you think player may thrive
Hitting certain internal analytic marks that your organization values more than player’s current organization
Comments to the media by coach, management that shows a displeasure with the player
Noise from the player’s agent growing louder in and around arenas

There are recent examples in the NHL. In Nov. 2018, then-Rangers GM Jeff Gorton traded Ryan Spooner for Ryan Strome, who had clearly fallen out of favor in Edmonton. Strome has put up back-to-back 50-point seasons over the last two years; Spooner hasn’t played again in the NHL since the 2018-19 season. A second example is then-Coyotes GM John Chayka acquiring Darcy Kuemper for Tobias Rieder and Scott Wedgewood. The Kings’ crease was crowded that season with Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell – Kuemper was the odd-man out and Arizona took advantage.

Already this season, there have been multiple players dealt that would fall under our Daily Faceoff “change of scenery” list, including Olli Juolevi and Logan Brown. There are other players with speculation growing by the day that they could be moved – like the Rangers’ Vitali Kravstov and Ottawa’s Erik Brannstrom.

With the Islanders, Avalanche, Panthers and Oilers as potential “buyers” this season, I’ve begun to formulate which players in their organizations have potentially been identified in the “change of scenery” category by rival teams.

Here is an early season look at our “change of scenery” list that will continue to evolve:

Kieffer Bellows
Age: 22
LW, New York Islanders
Change of Scenery: Has only appeared in two of New York’s six games this season. Requires waivers, so Isles won’t want to lose him for nothing. Third straight season where he’s been unable to convert into an NHL regular in the lineup.

Tyler Benson
Age: 23
LW, Edmonton Oilers
Change of Scenery: Like Bellows, Benson requires waivers and the Oilers would want to get something for him rather than exposing him to waivers. Has only played in one of Edmonton’s six games and team is cruising along. Point-per-game AHL player.

Grigori Denisenko
Age: 21
LW, Florida Panthers
Change of Scenery: Former first-round pick by a different GM (Dale Tallon, 15th overall, 2018). Currently in AHL Charlotte and without a point through four games. Similar to Kravtsov, this is a highly-skilled Russian who came to North America with big NHL expectations, but finds himself in the AHL.

Barrett Hayton
Age: 21
C, Arizona Coyotes
Change of Scenery: Hayton was recalled to Arizona on Wednesday, where the team said he’s expected to play, but started season in the AHL. Canada’s World Junior hero was drafted by the Coyotes’ old regime and it’s unclear where new GM Bill Armstrong had Hayton on his draft board while working in St. Louis.

Tyson Jost
Age: 23
C, Colorado Avalanche
Change of Scenery: If the Avalanche are buyers this season, I would expect Jost to be included in a deal. This is his fifth season as full-time NHL player, but hasn’t produced to expectations. Saw increased minutes with MacKinnon out, but could also be to showcase player.

Max Mamin
Age: 26
C, Florida Panthers
Change of Scenery: Florida signed Mamin to a one-way, $975,000 deal last summer – a price they probably don’t want to pay him to play in AHL Charlotte. He has two assists in four AHL games. But produced for CSKA Moscow in KHL last year, particularly in playoffs, which enticed Florida to bring him back into the fold.

Michael McNiven
Age: 24
G, Montreal Canadiens
Change of Scenery: Publicly showed displeasure with his lack of opportunity in Montreal, voicing concerns about playing while hurt. Sent to AHL Laval Rocket, where is in line behind Carey Price, Jake Allen, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau – and has .940 save percentage in two games this year.

Steve Greeley joined Daily Faceoff in Oct. 2021 after spending the last 12 seasons in an NHL front office as scout, director of player personnel and management. He was most recently assistant GM of the Buffalo Sabres from 2017-20.