Is Alexis Lafreniere a bust? Not so fast

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Is Alexis Lafreniere a bust? Not so fast

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How close are we to regularly mentioning Alexis Lafreniere and Alexandre Daigle in the same breath?

Feels a bit hyperbolic, right? But ask diehard New York Rangers fans how they feel about that. Their beloved franchise’s No. 1 overall pick from the 2020 NHL Draft had 52 points in 135 games over his first two seasons after debuting in 2020-21. That was good for 260th among NHL players, placing him in the 77th percentile. Through Daigle’s first two NHL seasons, he scored the 88th most points in the league, placing him in the 90th percentile.

I’m mostly just stirring the pot here. The expectations heaped on Daigle following the 1993 NHL Draft were much larger than any hype around Lafreniere, whom scouts considered a can’t-miss star rather than a superstar or, like in Daigle’s case, a generational talent. But the idea of Lafreniere as a “bust” has rattled around my head over the past several days, ever since it was a topic in my colleague Nick Alberga’s weekly Daily Faceoff fantasy mailbag. It sparked a lengthy Royal Rumble of debate spilling over into Twitter. Some fans had a revisionist idea that Lafreniere was indeed a generational talent and thus a crushing disappointment thus far in his career. Others felt it was unfair to slap a bust label on the kid at 21.

What do we make of Lafreniere’s career so far? Which mob has the right idea: the detractors or the defenders?

Perhaps the better question to ask first is: are we even in a position yet to properly evaluate what Lafreniere is?

By the end of the 2020 Draft year, he distanced himself decisively from Quinton Byfield and Tim Stutzle for shoo-in No. 1 status. Lafreniere tore up the QMJHL with the Rimouski Oceanic and was the third draft-year player ever to win MVP honors at the World Junior Championship. But the COVID-19 pandemic seriously messed with his trajectory. He played his final game of the QMJHL season on March 8, 2020. Under return to play protocols, the NHL’s shortened 2020-21 season didn’t begin until January 2021. The New York Rangers opted not to send Lafreniere to the 2021 World Junior Championship, which I argued was a massive mistake at the time.

By the time Lafreniere joined the Rangers for his first NHL training camp, he hadn’t played a competitive hockey game for 10 months. It would be ignorant to assume that didn’t set him back at all. Was it any wonder that, as a 19-year-old with an unprecedented layoff, he had one goal and no assists in his first 15 NHL games? So before we pass any judgment on the start of his career, we have to acknowledge the arrested development. It’s almost like we have to knock a year off his hockey life. Think of him in 2022-23 as 20, not 21. Can we call a 20-year-old a bust?

Looking strictly at the numbers through Lafreniere’s first two NHL seasons…OK, sure, they’re not great to say the least. In 2020-21 and 2021-22 combined, 443 NHL forwards played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5. Among them, Lafreniere sat 351st in shots per 60; 341st in individual shot attempts per 60; 366th in individual scoring chances per 60; and 338th in individual expected goals per 60. He barely registered a pulse but still managed 31 goals over those two seasons thanks to the fifth-best shooting percentage of that 443-player sample.

Among Ranger forwards? He had the ninth-best shot attempt share and ninth-best expected goal share over that span. So he was grading out as just barely good enough to crack the third line, let alone the top six. He also had a chicken-and-egg situation to overcome in regards to his role, of course. He saw almost no power play work and couldn’t even average 14 minutes of ice time in his first two seasons, whether his coach was David Quinn or Gerard Gallant.

But are all these things still true about Lafreniere in Year 3 of his career? The surface stats may say so. He’s amassed a paltry three goals and 10 points in 23 games. But everything looks different under the hood. Check out the trend in his 5-on-5 play driving and where he ranks among NHL forwards.

ALEXIS LAFRENIERE

SeasoniSF/60percentileiCF/60percentileiSC/60percentileixGF/60percentile
2020-215.5223rd9.1120th  5.3414th0.5734th
2021-225.5317th9.6421st5.9019th0.5618th
2022-237.2157th13.566th9.4378th0.7862nd

He has made massive leaps, from ranking near the bottom of the league to grading out as well above average, roughly a second-line level. Sure, we can attribute some of the change to the company he’s kept. His most frequent 5-on-5 linemates this season are Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, and his play-driving metrics are stronger with them than without. But it takes a good player to keep up with good players, and their metrics are also better with Lafreniere than without.

We’re seeing some real evolution to his game. And it’s reminding me of the breakout we saw from the man taken first overall the season before Lafreniere: Jack Hughes. His first season in the NHL was a struggle, but his play driving metrics exploded in Year 2 before a major star turn in Year 3. Have a look at Hughes’ first two seasons:

JACK HUGHES

SeasoniSF/60percentileiCF/60percentileiSC/60percentileixGF/60percentile
2019-207.0554th11.2540th7.4755th0.7468th
2020-217.9477th13.5778th8.4477th0.7575th

Hughes’ surface stats were just so-so in 2020-21: 11 goals and 31 points in 56 games. It didn’t look like he was improving, but his play driving was smoldering under the surface.

If we strike Lafreniere’s first season from the books because of that 10-month layoff and compare Lafreniere in Year 3 to Hughes in Year 2? We see some surprising similarities.

SeasoniSF/60percentileiCF/60percentileiSC/60percentileixGF/60percentile
Hughes 27.9477th13.5778th8.4477th0.7575th
Lafreniere 37.2157th13.566th9.4378th0.7862nd

Hughes was playing at a high level in Year 2 but didn’t go supernova until the following season. So maybe, even if we’re not seeing the surface results change, it’s too early to call Lafreniere a bust. He’s generating far more chances this season but he’s been snakebitten with a shooting percentage plummeting to 6.7. If he keeps creating the way he has so far in 2022-23, the points will come. Even if they don’t? He’s undoubtedly been a better player in Year 3 and could break out significantly in Year 4.

Don’t give up on Alexis Lafreniere.

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