Line Matching: October 20th
For a Friday night, the NHL having six games is a blessing! Beyond the Florida/Pittsburgh game, there are some interesting match-ups tonight, including the return of the Wild.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Buffalo Sabres
| Vancouver | Buffalo | Advantage |
| VAN2/3 (Baertschi-Burmistrov-Boeser/ Gagner-Horvat-Vanek) | BUF1 (Kane-Eichel-Pominville) | Even: VAN2 has performed admirably in a short sample and should help curb some of Jack Eichel’s scoring prowess, but when BUF1 gets to face VAN3 they should run roughshod over the Canucks. |
| VAN1 (Sedin-Sedin-Granlund) | BUF2 (Bailey-O’Reilly-Okposo) | VAN1: For a shutdown centre, Ryan O’Reilly has struggled so far this season – mostly thanks to the atrocious play of the blue line behind him. Vancouver’s best have had a relatively good start to the season thanks to the Sedins outshooting opponents 2 to 1 and out-chancing at almost the same ratio. |
| Conclusion: Jack Eichel hasn’t been matched against anyone in his two home games, but has seen a lot of time against second- and third- lines as Ryan O’Reilly typically gets the opposition’s best. That bodes well for the home team’s top line tonight, as Bo Horvat and company should get trounced. VAN1 should be a “sneaky” option tonight as they’re not typically rostered, and because O’Reilly has the reputation of being a shutdown centre. |
San Jose Sharks vs. New Jersey Devils
| San Jose | New Jersey | Advantage |
| SJ2/3 (Hertl-Couture-Karlsson / Meier-Tierney-Boedker) | NJ1 (Hall-Hischier-Stafford) | Even: Whenever possible, Nico Hischier has been put in the best positions to succeed, avoiding top competition. That didn’t change against TB, as NJ1 (as it’s currently constructed) played mostly against TB2/3. Against SJ2 they’ll struggle – Logan Couture is a force – but against the Tierney line they should easily push the puck to the net. |
| SJ1 (Labanc-Thornton-Pavelski) | NJ2 (Johansson-Henrique-Palmieri) | SJ1: NJ2 have played some high-event minutes, and although they’re positive in the possession metrics, they still allow a good number of shots and scoring chances against. SJ1 has been one of the most impressive lines in hockey – as they usually are – and are getting a MASSIVE 0.67 scoring chances/minute. Expect them to eat NJ2 up tonight. |
| Conclusion: On a road-home back-to-back that included overtime, expect NJ1’s minutes to be managed a touch, so they should see more time against the softer third line of the Sharks than the second line. That gives NJ1 a nice match yet again, but also boosts SJ2. The top line of the Sharks would be the line to stack tonight. |
Washington Capitals vs. Detroit Red Wings
| Washington | Detroit | Advantage |
| WSH1 (Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Vrana) | DET1 (Mantha-Zetterberg-Nyquist) | DET1: WSH1 falls into the same category as TB2 – they have to be targeted against almost every game. Their possession numbers remain terrible, while DET1 has been very impressive since moving Mantha up. |
| WSH3 (Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky) | DET2 (Tatar-Larkin-Abdelkader) | DET2: Larkin has continued to impress, no matter his linemates. He’s been dominant with Abdelkader and (in a small sample) Tatar, and the Eller/Connolly tandem have allowed twice as many shots against as shots for. |
| WSH2 (Wilson-Backstrom-Oshie) | DET3 (Frk-Nielsen-Helm) | WSH2: As much as it hurt his potential, moving Frk to the third line has made them much less of a liability. They’ll be in tough against a Backstrom/Oshie combo however, but this should be a fairly low-event matchup. |
| Conclusion: The Detroit side of this game should easily win the 5v5 battle when the 1s and 2s are on the ice, and it remains to be seen what impact having Tom Wilson instead of Andre Burakovsky on WSH2 will have. Expect a strong game from the Red Wings tonight, but as always when facing Washington, they’ll need to avoid penalty trouble. |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Florida Panthers
| Conclusion: Florida’s top line (Barkov–Huberdeau–Dadonov) sees mixed minutes, typically against the opposition’s top six but they’re spread out. After getting into some trouble in Pittsburgh against PIT1 (one goal against, eight scoring chances against), expect them to shade their minutes a bit more towards PIT2 but will still see PIT1. This should be a high-event game on both sides so all four top forward lines will be in play, and there’s value in a single bullet from Patric Hornqvist or a FLA3 mini-stack (McCann–Bjugstad) as they play PP2 together. |
Minnesota Wild vs. Winnipeg Jets
| Minnesota | Winnipeg | Advantage |
| MIN1 (Granlund-Koivu-Zucker)
| WPG1 (Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler) | Even: Winnipeg has been a tire fire in their own end, helping lead WPG1 to some awful numbers: 43% SF%, 43% SC% tell just half the story, as WPG1 is very high-event. 0.6 shots against every minute – 1 shot attempt every minute – and 22% of shot attempts against qualifying as high-danger. MIN1 hasn’t flashed much yet, but Granlund has only played with Zucker for 9 minutes in which they fired 6SOG and 3 scoring chances. |
| MIN2 (Foligno-Staal-Stewart) | WPG2 (Ehlers-Little-Laine) | WPG2: Although they performed admirably in a very small sample, Foligno and Chris Stewart are typically very poor possession players – and allow a scoring chance every two minutes. The Ehlers/Little combo has just under 1 scoring chance/minute which bodes very well against relatively soft competition. |
| Conclusion: Winnipeg at home has always been a fun target, and a Wild team that are banged up offer lots of potential; Jason Zucker played 22 minutes in his last game and should see similar numbers tonight. On the Winnipeg side, although MIN1 has the 5v5 matchup advantage, WPG1 is still a very high-powered line and offers potential. WPG2 has a very positive matchup with Nikolaj Ehlers on that line. |
Montreal Canadiens vs. Anaheim Ducks
| Montreal | Anaheim | Advantage |
| MTL1 (Pacioretty-Drouin-Galchenyuk)
| ANA1 (Cogliano-Rakell-Silfverberg) | MTL1: Drouin has been excellent this season with Pacioretty, but they got outclassed with Galchenyuk on their wing against LA. Their overall scoring chance numbers project well however against the Rakell line who have are a high-event line both in terms of shots allowed and scoring chances allowed. |
| MTL2 (Lehkonen-Plekanec-Hemsky) | ANA2 (Ritchie-Vermette-Perry) | MTL2: The Plekanec/Lehkonen pair have dominated in their 40 minutes together, sitting above 55% in every possession metric and 61% in scoring chances. Anaheim’s second line is allowing 0.5 scoring chances per minute with half of those being high-danger. |
| Conclusion: As Ryan Getzlaf and Patrick Eaves are “highly unlikely” to play tonight, that makes the Rickard Rakell line the top line for the Ducks. In their last game, also Getzlaf-less, ANA1 faced the top line for Buffalo; this is more Randy Carlyle looking to match Jakub Silfverberg against the top opposition – Silfverberg has faced the top line every game he’s played, while Rakell only does when those two line up together. IF Montreal’s first line moves Galchenyuk off the first line for either Gallagher or Lehkonen, they get a small boost. |