Line Matching: October 24th
11-game slate tonight with some backups going, a few games where lines are murky and line-matching won’t come into play, but there are some fairly obvious chalk lines to target as well as a few cheaper under-owned plays to target.
New York Islanders vs. Arizona Coyotes
| Arizona | New York Islanders | Advantage |
| Conclusion: NYI hasn’t played more than 5 minutes/game against any one line while at home, so there’s no line-matching expected in this game. NYI1 are an upper-tier possession line, while Christian Dvorak has been atrocious in that regard for the ‘Yotes so while those two face-off there’s a clear advantage, and ARI1 (Stepan) allows a large amount of scoring chances against. NYI2 don’t offer much interest at even strength, except for the moments they’ll face ARI2. |
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Anaheim Ducks
| Anaheim | Philadelphia | Advantage |
| ANA1 (Ritchie-Getzlaf-Perry)
| PHI1 (Giroux-Couturier-Voracek) | PHI1: ANA1 has barely played together thanks to Getzlaf’s injury, as Ritchie/Getz have 0 time on ice together this year. In his few games this year Getzlaf has been pasted with Perry beside him, 13 scoring chances against (7 HD) in only 21 minutes. While part of that may be injury-related, the Perry/Ritchie duo is even uglier: 9 scoring chances (5HD) against in only 15 minutes. On the other side, PHI1 has seen the toughest competition and although their numbers don’t pop, they’re positive in every category. |
| ANA2 (Cogliano-Rakell-Silfverberg) | PHI2 (Weal-Filppula-Simmonds) | PHI2 (slight): Both PHI2 and ANA2 have been lacking a bit this year. PHI2 gets the smallest, smallest edge because of their proclivity to get shots through, versus ANA2’s poor Shots For percentage. |
| Conclusion: It’s hard to imagine Ryan Getzlaf’s ugly start to the year as being anything beyond injury-related, but he’s missed enough time with a vague injury that his ability in tonight’s game should be questioned. They’ll be in tough against PHI1, as Corey Perry’s numbers thus far have been awful, no matter who he’s been lining up with. |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Edmonton Oilers
| Edmonton | Pittsburgh | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Pittsburgh doesn’t line match. No edge in this game at 5v5 beyond the obvious: McDavid and Crosby are elite. Look for special-teams match-ups (hint: Edmonton has allowed 8 ppg in 29 chances while Pittsburgh has scored 12 on 37 chances) and goaltending to be the largest factors in this game. |
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | Advantage |
| TBL1 (Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov)
| CAR1 (Teravainen-Staal-Williams) | Even: TB1 is a very high-event line, a little positive in possession but they allow a high number of shots and scoring chances against. With CAR1 combining for 21 shots in only 31 minutes together – and 21 against – this is a “fireworks” line-match. |
| TBL2 (Palat-Point-Gourde) | CAR2 (Aho-Rask-Lindholm) CAR3 (Skinner-Ryan-McGinn) | Even: TB2 continues to be porous defensively (although TB2 is lighting the world on fire in 5v5 Goals For). They’re at the 40% Shots For mark and although they’re positive in scoring chances, it’s negligible. Victor Rask has lost some mojo as he lost Teravainen, looking pretty pedestrian with his current linemates but still sitting above 50% in everything. CAR3 has demolished SC%, but in a very low-event way (16-5) and haven’t managed many scoring chances at all. |
| Conclusion: Carolina has only played two homes games, and have juggled their lines quite a bit from then. This line-matching therefore isn’t perfect, but it does seem like the Hurricanes prefer CAR1 as their two-way line, leaving the easier competition to the Rask and Ryan lines. Unfortunately, with Teravainen being on line one, there’s not a lot to love on the middle six of Carolina. CAR1 and TB1 should prove to be a very fun match-up, with lots of shots both ways. With Carolina being slight favourites tonight, there’s a chance TB1 doesn’t end up uber-chalk, but CAR1 will go under-owned. It’s important to look past Carolina’s overall shot suppression numbers tonight. |
Buffalo Sabres vs. Detroit Red Wings
| Detroit | Buffalo | Advantage |
| DET2 (Tatar-Larkin-Abdelkader) DET3 (Frk-Nielsen-Helm) | BUF1 (Kane-Eichel-Okposo) | Even: The top line for Buffalo is the only good thing to come out of upstate NY, maybe ever. They’re a plus line that gets a load of scoring opportunities and shots for, but will be in tough against a very sound DET2. Against DET3 however, BUF1 should find lots of pucks getting to Jimmy Howard. Helm/Nielsen have been bad at allowing scoring chances and have a 42% SF%. |
| DET1 (Mantha-Zetterberg-Nyquist) | BUF2 (Reinhart-O’Reilly-Pominville) | DET1: Putting Mantha on the first line continues to be Jeff Blashill’s only good decision this year (sorry, Martin Frk). Mantha is the possession-driver on this line and pulls them ahead of BUF2 in terms of scoring chances and possession, but this is only a small edge. When accounting for Buffalo’s poor D corps though, DET1 gets a heavier edge. |
| Conclusion: The Sabres are bad, full stop. Ryan O’Reilly has been better in a small sample with Sam Reinhart so putting those two together gives BUF2 a bit more defensive juice against a good DET1 line, but they should still lose out at 5v5 thanks to the porous play by Buffalo defenders. BUF1 remains an elite play – especially with Okposo on right wing – and will have some chances tonight against both the second and third line of Detroit. |
Montreal Canadiens vs. Florida Panthers
| Florida | Montreal | Advantage |
| FLA2 (McGinn-Trocheck-Vrbata) | MTL2 (Pacioretty-Danault-Shaw) | MTL2: Throwing out the 8 minutes that Pacioretty played with Danault/Shaw, the Danault/Shaw combo have performed way over expectations this season: over 56% in every category, they’ve put up 49 scoring chances in 88 minutes together and doubled the opposition in high-danger chances. FLA2 has had very even results on the ice – about as close to 50% in everything as it gets – but do usually play against a bit tougher competition. With Pacioretty playing on this line it should tilt the edge to MTL2. |
| FLA2 (Brickley-Malgin-Bjugstad) | MTL1 (Byron-Drouin-Lehkonen) | MTL1: With this being Malgin’s first game of the year, this is a tougher match to figure out. Brickley/Bjugstad have tread water in their short time together – although they’re scoring well at 5v5 – and Malgin was an even puck possession player last year that got killed in scoring chances against. Expect Lehkonen/Drouin to demolish them; they’ve put up 20 scoring chances to 10 against in only 34 minutes. |
| FLA1 (Huberdeau-Barkov-Dadonov) | MTL3 (Hudon-Plekanec-Gallagher) | Even: By using Plekanec against FLA1, Julien should neutralize the best possession line on the Panthers. Plekanec has only played ~30 minutes with Hudon or Gallagher but has doubled the opposition in shots for and has 22 scoring chances in 38 minutes with Hudon vs. only 7(!) against. |
| Conclusion: With Claude Julien preferring to put Plekanec out against top competition, that leaves some easier ice time for the top-6 of the Habs. With Danault seeing around 3 minutes more than Drouin against Anaheim, the expectation is that the MTL2 line is used more as a top line, which should match them against Trocheck. As ugly as Montreal has looked to open this season, they still project to have the better 5v5 match-ups, and will garner absolutely no ownership. Lehkonen and Drouin make an interesting pair, but an MTL2 stack could also put some points on the board. |
Ottawa Senators vs. Los Angeles Kings
| Los Angeles | Ottawa | Advantage |
| LAK1 (Iafallo-Kopitar-Brown)
| OTT1 (Burrows-Brassard-Stone) | LAK1: Ottawa’s top line has been badly hurt in terms of raw puck possession but may actually see an uptick with Burrows replacing Bobby Ryan. They’re fairly even in terms of allowing shots & scoring chances against even as they they sit at 45% CF%. Conversely, the Kopitar line is (somehow) cruising this year, sitting above 55% in all metrics and have a very solid 30 HD chances in 100 minutes. |
| LAK2 (Pearson-Shore-Toffoli) | OTT2 (Thompson-Turris-Dzingel) | LAK2: Although the Kings’ second line didn’t do much last night, they’re still sitting above 60% possession (30 minutes) and have had a boat load of scoring chances. They should easily handle the Sens’ second line. |
| Conclusion: It’s a tough spot on a road back-to-back, but the Kings should win both main 5v5 match-ups (even with Erik Karlsson doing his thing) against a banged-up top-six of the Sens. LAK2 will have sub-2% ownership on an 11-game slate in this spot, and offer enough salary relief to match them with a strong chalk line (PIT1, TB1, etc). |
Nashville Predators vs. Calgary Flames
| Calgary | Nashville | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Not enough line-matching from Nashville to make an impact. NSH1 should be able to get lots of scoring chances tonight, as both CGY1 and CGY2 struggle a lot in that area. Calgary’s defense has also struggled allowing a lot of carry-ins through the blue line, which will lead to a good amount of shots for the Predators. |
Minnesota Wild vs. Vancouver Canucks
| Vancouver | Minnesota | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Minnesota typically line matches with Eric Staal, but with that team being an absolute tire fire of injuries, it’s tough to make any judgements this far from game time. If Jason Zucker–Mikko Koivu do get to face the Bo Horvat line, they should have a strong edge on VAN2. |
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
| Dallas | Colorado | Advantage |
| DAL1 (Benn-Seguin-Radulov)
| COL1 (Andrighetto-MacKinnon-Rantanen) | DAL1: The Stars top line is the best top line in hockey. With Radulov beside Seguin, they’ve got 0.72 shots on goal per minute (best in the league), 0.62 scoring chances per minute, and 1.18 attempts/minute. Against COL1 who are allowing similar numbers – 0.58SA/m, 0.55SCA/m, 1.06A/m – Dallas should easily win this at 5v5. |
| DAL2 (Shore-Janmark-Spezza) | COL2 (Landeskog-Duchene-Yakupov) | Even: Both lines feature some unknowns – Janmark has been awful playing with Shore but has been excellent playing with Spezza, while Duchene has barely touched the ice with Landeskog. Not much of an edge in this game. |
| Conclusion: The first line of the Stars should generate a ton of chances tonight. Not much to say beyond that – they’re good, play them. |
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Chicago Blackhawks
| Chicago | Vegas | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Vegas still hasn’t made an attempt at line-matching under Gerard Gallant, but with their third-string goalie in Oscar Dansk between the pipes and some poor possession numbers beyond the first line, expect heavy Chicago ownership and for the top line of the ‘Hawks to perform well on the scoresheet. |