Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Minnesota Wild: 2nd, Central Division, 113 points
St. Louis Blues: 3rd Central Division, 109 points
Schedule (ET)
Monday, May 2, 9:30 p.m.: St. Louis at Minnesota (ESPN, SN360, TVA Sports)
Wednesday, May 4, 9:30 p.m.: St. Louis at Minnesota (ESPN, SN360, TVA Sports)
Friday, May 6, 9:30 p.m.: Minnesota at St. Louis (TNT, SN360, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 8, 4:30 p.m.: Minnesota at St. Louis (TBS, SN360, TVA Sports)
*Tuesday, May 10, TBD: St. Louis at Minnesota (TBD)
*Thursday, May 12, TBD: Minnesota at St. Louis (TBD)
*Saturday, May 14 TBD: St. Louis at Minnesota (TBD)
The Skinny
This has to be one of the more eagerly anticipated first-round matchups given that both teams have surged through the second half of the season and represent very similar approaches to the game, which is to roll four fast, physical lines that often overwhelm opponents. Both teams feature elite goal-scorers and both teams will have potentially difficult goaltending decisions to make. Both teams are built for the long haul and seem to be peaking at exactly the right time, as the Wild were first in the league in points collected since the March 21 trade deadline and went 10-1-2 in their last 13 games, allowing them to secure home ice advantage in the series. The Wild have in short order redefined their identity under GM Bill Guerin, starting with the off-season buyouts of veterans Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Meanwhile, the Blues tied for second in points since the deadline and have finally begun to resemble the team that went from dead last in the NHL standings to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup back in 2019. The damn shame of it is that one of these two well-built clubs will be headed home in less than two weeks.
Head to Head
Minnesota 0-1-2
St. Louis 3-0-0
The Blues owned the Wild this season, including embarrassing Minnesota on home ice in the Winter Classic. The Blues outscored Minnesota 16-12, averaging more than five goals a game in the three contests, and it will be up to the Wild to prove early on that regular season results mean nothing in the playoffs.
Top Five Scorers
Minnesota
Kirill Kaprizov: 108 points
Kevin Fiala: 85 points
Mats Zuccarello: 79 points
Ryan Hartman: 65 points
Joel Eriksson Ek: 49 points
St. Louis
Vladimir Tarasenko: 82 points
Robert Thomas: 77 points
Pavel Buchnevich: 76 points
Jordan Kyrou: 75 points
Ivan Barbashev: 60 points
X-Factor
With teams this evenly matched, you have to figure special teams will be a deciding factor, and since the trade deadline the Blues have been outstanding on both sides of that ledger with the top penalty kill in the league since late March and the fourth-ranked power play. The Wild penalty kill has struggled down the stretch, ranking 23rd since the deadline, although it’s been better of late. Still, if the Wild can’t keep up in the special teams battle, it may be the deciding factor in what should be a long, entertaining series.
Offense
The Blues have been the most prolific team in the league since the deadline, averaging 4.58 goals per game, and the Wild have been scoring at an equally impressive pace, ranking sixth in the league at just under four goals a game. The Blues boast nine 20-goal scorers on their roster and the Wild have six with Matt Boldy on pace to be in that group had the youngster played a full season. So both teams can bring it and they can bring it from everywhere in the lineup, up and down the forward units, from the back end and on special teams. Each of these teams possesses an elite sniper in the form of veteran Vladimir Tarasenko in St. Louis and the electrifying Kirill Kaprizov for the Wild, and it will be interesting to see how Wild head coach Dean Evason and Blues bench boss Craig Berube go about trying to neutralize those two game-breakers.
Defense
Minnesota ranked second in the league, first in the Western Conference, since the trade deadline in goals allowed per game, a reflection, at least in part, of the synergy that has been created by the addition of future Hall of Fame goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline. Both teams added depth to already deep and well-rounded blueline corps at the deadline, with sturdy Jacob Middleton coming to Minnesota and veteran Nick Leddy joining the Blues. The Blues, in spite of a plethora of experience on the back end, have been prone to defensive letdowns periodically throughout the season – they were 19th in goals allowed per game since late March – and that can’t happen against an opportunistic Wild team that in general isn’t prone to the kinds of dramatic swings in team defense the Blues have displayed.
Goaltending
Both Fleury and Talbot have been outstanding since Fleury’s arrival – Fleury is 9-2 since the trade – and it has created a cottage industry around the Wild debating who will or should get the Game 1 start in goal. There’s no wrong answer – unless it’s the wrong answer – but not sure you acquire Fleury to sit on the bench to start the post-season, as good as Talbot has been – and he’s been plenty good, without a regulation loss since March 1. But that’s just us. The Blues will have to make a decision between Ville Husso, who has carried the team in goal for most of the season, or Jordan Binnington who was the catalyst to the Blues’ magical run to a Cup in 2019 but who has struggled for much of the season with his consistency and his confidence. Binnington has been much better of late with five straight wins heading into the final week of the season. Still, Husso looks to have earned the playoff goal with his .919 save percentage. Yet one has to imagine the leash will be very short, as this will the 27-year-old’s first NHL playoff experience. In fact, given the depth and choices available, we’re guessing the goaltending leash will be very short for both coaches.
Injuries
The Blues are getting healthy at the right time. Torey Krug missed a handful of games in the last week or so of the regular season with an upper-body injury but came back and started producing right away. David Perron and Robert Bortuzzo played late in the regular season and Marco Scandella and Brayden Schenn should be good to go in Game 1. It’s been a difficult year for Krug, who has appeared in just 62 games. His experience and his skill set on the back end are critical to the Blues’ chances of moving on. Tyler Bozak also recently returned from injury and, along with a bout with COVID-19, has missed significant time this season. The Wild lost a key part of their forward machinery when Marcus Foligno was injured in the team’s home-ice clinching win over Colorado in Game 82 after a knee-on-knee hit delivered by Kurtis MacDermid. It’s not known if Foligno will be ready for Game 1. Mats Zuccarello also missed time late in the regular season but Evason is optimistic that the veteran winger will be back come playoff time.
Intangibles
Did we mention this should an absolutely rocking series? Both teams have plenty of swagger and they already have a pretty healthy disdain for each other. The Wild added tough-as-nails forward Nicolas Deslauriers at the deadline and both teams will try and exact a heavy toll on the other. The key will be staying healthy and trying to stay out of the box while imposing their respective wills on each other. The Wild are going to start to pay a heavy cap penalty for buying out Parise and Suter starting next season and there’s been a kind of all-in feel to this team that was reinforced with Fleury’s addition.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
Flip a coin. The Daily Faceoff staff was almost divided down the middle picking this series. In the end, we lean slightly toward the team with the safer goaltending situation, stronger 5-on-5 defense and home ice. Wild in 7.
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