2020 Projected Lineups: Montreal Canadiens

Brock Seguin
Brock Seguin(@Brock_Seguin)
2020 Projected Lineups: Montreal Canadiens

The @Montreal Canadiens made it into the NHL Playoffs after the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams and shocked the @Pittsburgh Penguins to advance to the “first round.”

Once reaching the regular portion of the postseason, the Canadiens were knocked out by the @Philadelphia Flyers, making it five straight seasons without advancing to the second round.

General Manager Marc Bergevin had a busy offseason, which was headlined by acquiring @Josh Anderson from the @Columbus Blue Jackets for @Max Domi and a 2020 third-round pick. Their other key additions were Tyler Toffoli (4x$4.25M AAV), @Jake Allen (acquired from St. Louis) and Joel Edmundson (acquired from Carolina).

Montreal opened at +5000 to win the 2020-21 Stanley Cup but that has dropped as far as +1800 on some Online Sportsbooks according to OddsShark.com

Projected Forward Lines

The Canadiens made some big additions up front this offseason but you can fully expect their first line to look the same as it did for much of 2020. @Tomas Tatar, @Phillip Danault and @Brendan Gallagher played nearly 575 5v5 TOI together last season, no other Montreal trio played more than 160 5v5 TOI. Of the 16 lines to play at least 400 5v5 TOI together, MTL1 was first in CorsiFor% (61.9) and fifth in GoalsFor/60 (3.77) and GoalsFor% (58.1). They don’t get the credit that other top lines do, but this is a legitimately good scoring line that also does a great job defending in their own end.

Their second line should be much improved this season. @Nick Suzuki is coming off of a terrific rookie season and was even more impressive in the playoffs. The former No.13 overall pick appears to be very comfortable as a No.2 centre in the NHL. Last year his most frequent linemates were Domi, @Joel Armia and @Artturi Lehkonen. With Domi now in Columbus and Armia and Lehkonen probably better served as third-liners, Suzuki could have the two newcomers on his flanks. Montreal obviously loves what Anderson brings to the table, giving up a third-round pick in addition to Domi and signing him to a huge seven-year, $38.5 million ($5.5M AAV) extension. He was hampered by shoulder issues last year, playing just 26 games, but was he and @Alex Ovechkin were the only two players with 25-plus goals and 200-plus hits in 2018-19. As for Toffoli, he’s not the physical presence that Anderson is, but he is a consistent 25-goal scorer and gives this second line three players who could score 20 goals and 50 points in a full 82-game season.

Third-year centre @Jesperi Kotkaniemi will centre the third line and is looking for a bounce-back season after disappointing in his sophomore campaign. He went back to Finland during COVID-19, picking up eight points (2G / 6A) in 10 games. The Canadiens are hoping that is a sign of things to come in 2020. He’ll likely have @Joel Armia on his right side. The two Finnish players played together quite a bit last year and Armia really boosted Kotkaniemi’s numbers. Kotkaniemi had a 33.3 GF% without Armia but a drastically improved 46.1 with him. @Jonathan Drouin or Toffoli should be on the left side. Drouin is more of a playmaker, so he is probably the better fit as they try to get some goal production out of Kotkaniemi and  Armia.

Montreal could have one of the most offensive bottom-6s in the NHL. Their fourth line will be made up of some collection of Lehkonen, @Paul Byron, @Ryan Poehling, @Jordan Weal and @Charles Hudon.

  • – Lehkonen has averaged 15 goals and 15 assists per  82 games throughout his career.
  • – Byron is a two-time 20-goal scorer and has averaged 19 goals and 17 assists per82 games in five years with Montreal.
  • – Poehling is a former first-round pick and owns a quality two-way game with a little offensive upside.
  • – Both Weal and Hudon have displayed double-digit goals, 30-point upside when they play regularly but have been rotation players over the years.

Projected Defensive Pairings

Their first pairing could look the same as it did last year with @Shea Weber being paired with @Ben Chiarot. They played 689.2 5v5 TOI together a year ago but their defensive numbers need to improve this season. Of the 57 pairings that played at least 400 5v5 TOI together, Weber-Chiarot ranked 56th in GA/60 (3.22) but made most of that back with 3.05 GF/60 (9th most). Their ExpectedGoalsFor% was much better than their actual GF% (which was 38th/57), which suggests there was some bad luck in 2020 and bodes well for their chances of a strong 2021.

I would be surprised if the Canadiens break up @Brett Kulak and @Jeff Petry either. Last season they led all D-pairs (Min.400 TOI) with a 61.5 xGoals% and that’s a terrific sign. That translated into a 54.8 GF% (27th), so the production wasn’t necessarily there, but those are really sturdy, reliable numbers for a second pairing. @Joel Edmundson could move up and replace Kulak with Petry, but I expect them to stick with what worked a year ago to start the season.

Edmundson is solid in his own end and plays a simple, stay-at-home style that should perfectly complement @AlexanderRomanov’s offensive style of play. Romanov is one of the best Canadiens’ prospects that we’ve seen in recent years and he should make an immediate impact in 2021. The 20-year-old, former second-round pick posted 11 points (1G / 10A) in 86 KHL games over the last two seasons, but he played a very minimal role (12:08 TOI) with CSKA Moscow. In 2021 he should play a similar role to @Victor Mete (16:00 TOI) with power-play exposure. He might not be worth a draft pick in re-draft leagues to start the season but is definitely a player to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com 

Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com 

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