2020 Projected Lineups: Nashville Predators
The @Nashville Predators have been one of the most consistent regular-season teams in the NHL since 2015, ranking sixth in Points% with a record of 264-154-61 over that span.
Despite the regular-season success, the Predators have struggled mightily in the playoffs, winning a total of five playoff series in the six years–including three first-round exits.
Midway through the 2020 season, Nashville fired head coach Peter Laviolette and hired John Hynes. Under Hynes, they improved defensively and won games more regularly, but his conservative style of play zapped the Predators’ offence. They scored nearly a full goal less per game, ranking 25th in the NHL in goals for per game (2.54) after January 6th. With Hynes still at the helm, that’s a concern for Nashville’s fantasy assets heading into 2021.
It was a relatively dormant offseason for General Manager David Poile, who most tweaked the team’s depth pieces. The most noteworthy moves were buying out @Kyle Turris (who is now in Edmonton) and trading @Nick Bonino with a couple of draft picks to the @Minnesota Wild for @Luke Kunin and a 2020 fourth-round pick.
Nashville opened at +3300 to win the 2021 Stanley Cup and those odds are holding steady on almost all online sportsbooks according to OddsShark.com.
Projected Forward Lines
A first-line of @Filip Forsberg, @Ryan Johansen and @Viktor Arvidsson played together almost exclusively in 2019 but a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness limited their ice-time together in 2020. They were reunited during the NHL’s Return to Play and they dominated the @Arizona Coyotes in their brief four-game series. The trio carried an absurd 74.2 CorsiFor% while averaging 5.68 GF/60 and generating 45.5 ScoringChancesFor/60. While it’s a small sample size against one team, it showcases that they can return to the 2019 form that saw them post a 58.6 xGF%, which ranked fourth in the NHL among lines who played at least 400 5v5 TOI together. There is serious bounce-back potential for all three of these players, particularly Arvidsson, who had just 15 goals and 13 assists (28 points) in 57 games after averaging 36 goals and 29 assists per 82-games in the three previous seasons.
Nashville’s second line was a massive disappointment for the majority of 2020. Both Turris and @Mikael Granlund were largely ineffective and are no longer with the Predators as a result. They both dragged @Matt Duchene down for a lot of the year and now the veteran pivot will be asked to elevate the games of 23-year-old Luke Kunin and 21-year-old @Eeli Tolvanen. On paper, it looks like a line with a lot of promise but it’s fair to have reservations about their actual output. Both Kunin and Tolvanen are former first-round picks and Kunin was solid in Minnesota last season and could continue to improve in an expanded role in Nashville. He’s got a great shot and a hard-working two-way game, that will help cover up some of the defensive-zone deficiencies of Duchene and Tolvanen. For Tolvanen, he has gone from a can’t miss prospect to a player the Predators hope can make the jump in 2020. I have him pencilled into the top-6 because they don’t really have any other option than to put him there and hope it works. The Finnish winger has an elite release and gives this line three capable goal-scorers, but he has to prove he can do it at this level before he’ll be on the fantasy radar.
Adding a player with the offensive upside of Kunin was needed but losing Bonino and @Craig Smith is going to hurt more than many realize. Along with @Rocco Grimaldi, that trio made up one of the best third lines (if not the best) in the NHL a season ago, leading the entire NHL in GF% (72.5). They were ridiculously effective in limited minutes, leading the league in GF/60 (4.34) but also lock-down defensively, giving up the fifth least GA/60 (1.64) among lines who played at least 400 5v5 TOI together. All three of those numbers are better than what @Brad Marchand, @Patrice Bergeron and @David Pastrnak put up and they’re known as “The Perfection Line.” Unlike the top-6 It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how this bottom-6 will shake out but it figures to include Grimaldi, @Calle Jarnkrok, @Colton Sissons and @Yakov Trenin, who were with the Predators last season and newcomers @Nick Cousins and @Brad Richardson. Cousins was an effective bottom-6 player for both Montreal and Vegas last year, so he should be a reasonable replacement for Smith, albeit with far less goal-scoring upside. Jarnkrok is most closely comparable to Bonino but Richardson is by far the better shutdown centre. So how they are put together really depends on what Hynes wants out of his third and fourth line. He can try and create a decent scoring third line with Trenin-Jarnrkok-Grimaldi as his third line or try and create two “shutdown lines” and balance out what offence is available to him. I’m leaning towards the latter being the most likely scenario.
Projected Defensive Pairings
The Predators have been known for their stout top-4 for a few years now and more teams are leaning towards their blueline model. Teams often tried to get three balanced pairs and utilize them evenly but the Predators like to stack their top-2 pairings and ride them heavily and pick and choose the limited minutes for the third-pair. This offseason we’ve seen teams like the @Vegas Golden Knights and @Vancouver Canucks try to assemble a group that can accomplish that.
Unsurprisingly, the duo of @Roman Josi and @Ryan Ellis can be found near the top of any statistical measure of success. Of the 57 pairings that played at least 500 5v5 TOI together, they were first in GF/60 (3.78), fourth in GF% (62.3) and 28th in GA/60. This pair is elite and remains the best in terms of generating offence in the NHL, giving Josi a pretty strong case to be the first defenseman taken in Fantasy drafts. He’s only missed 19 games over the last six years while averaging 15 goals and 45 assists per 82 games. His consistency is second to none and if Ellis can stay healthy for a full season, Josi could be the No.1 scoring defenseman in 2021.
Their second pairing went through some growing pains with @Dante Fabbro playing in his first NHL season but the rookie held his own. They were among the best second pairings in the league in terms of generating offence but struggled a bit defensively, which is shocking for a pair with @Mattias Ekholm on it. I would expect that to improve in 2021 as Fabbro gets more comfortable with the NHL game.
A completely new third-pair of @Mark Borowiecki and @Matt Benning was brought on in free agency to replace a rotation of @Dan Hamhuis, @Yannick Weber, @Jarred Tinordi and @Matt Irwin. Hynes will be picky with his matchups with this pairing but they should be a nice blend of styles. Borowiecki is a big, rugged defenseman while Benning is more of a puck-moving, offensive-defenseman. Both are best suited for limited minutes, so this sheltered role should serve both of them well.
Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com
Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com