2022 Fantasy Hockey: Values, Fades and Sleepers at each Position

 We are still pretty early in the 2021-22 Fantasy Hockey process, but Average Draft Positions are starting to take shape on the different platforms.
I sifted through the ADPs on FanTrax and Yahoo to try and find my top Values, Fades and Sleepers at each position.
Before I get into it, I want to remind you to move your Fantasy Hockey League (or tell your commish to) over to FanTrax this season! If you do, you will automatically get entered to win a signed Nathan MacKinnon jersey!

Centres

Value — Sean Couturier (PHI – C)

I already wrote about Couturier’s ADP in my “Too Early Draft Values” post but in two weeks not much has changed. Couturier will be less of a value pick on FanTrax, where his ADP currently sits at 80.58, but on Yahoo, he is going in the 12th round (144.1), which is absurd for a player of his skill level.
Couturier is well-known for his defensive ability but do not sleep on his offensive game. In the 2021 shortened season, Couturier scored at a 33-goal, 42-assist (75 points) per 82-game pace. That is not an outlier either, as Couturier has averaged 31 goals and 44 assists per 82-games over the last four seasons. In categories leagues, he will also add around 220 shots and 15-plus power-play points.
Couturier can be a legit No.2 fantasy centre in 2021-22, and the value at his current ADP allows you to fill out at the weaker positions in the early rounds.

Fade — Sam Bennett (FLA – C/LW)

There is a lot of hype surrounding Bennett coming into the 2021-22 season, and for good reason. He was excellent after being traded to the Panthers last season. Bennett combined for seven goals and 13 assists (20 points) in 15 games between the regular season and playoffs. He showed instant chemistry with Jonathan Huberdeau and should start this season on his line.
Where he becomes a fade for me is the glaringly obvious regression that is coming. He shot 15.4 percent and had an on-ice shooting percentage of 14.6 in the 10 regular-season games with Florida. His increased shot volume he showed with the Panthers will help offset some of that regression, but with an ADP of 108.4, Bennett is going ahead of players with much safer floors and probably higher ceilings. Kevin Fiala and Patrik Laine are two players going behind him right now that immediately stick out to me.
There are 402 games of a 0.35 points-per-game player and 10 games of a 1.5 points-per-game player. I am leaning towards the larger sample size and let other people reach for him on draft day.

Sleeper — Dylan Larkin (DET – C)

After averaging 24 goals, 44 assists and 266 shots per 82-games from 2018-to-2020, Larkin was a massive disappointment in 2021. However, several factors should help Larkin bounce back in 2022.
Larkin was still averaging over three shots per game last year but struggled to score due to a career-low 6.7 shooting percentage. There was a lack of talent around him as well, leading to a 4.94 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage, which was fourth-lowest among the 277 forwards who played at least 500 5v5 TOI.
In 2022, Tyler Bertuzzi will be back (missed almost all of 2021), and Jakub Vrana will be around for the entire season. They are both likely linemates of Larkin and upgrades on what he played with for most of last season.
With elite-level shot volume, Larkin should be able to reach 20-to-25 goals and 40 assists, making him a solid sleeper in the last three rounds of the draft.

Left Wings

Value — Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW/RW)

Ehlers is a player that could take a big step forward in 2022, and he is coming as a bargain on draft day. Ehlers is currently being drafted towards the end of the fifth round and could finish the season with stats of a second or third-round pick. 
Ehlers took his game to a new level in 2021, and it will be interesting to see if he can carry that over an 82-game season. If he can maintain the shot volume from last season, Ehlers will top 250 shots for the first time in his career and should lead to his first 30-goal season. Add in a surrounding cast loaded with goal-scorers, and a 30-40 season is doable. That would put him on a level with someone like Jake Guentzel, who is getting drafted 28.9 spots ahead of Ehlers right now.

Fade — Ondrej Palat (TBL – LW)

Palat is an easy fade to spot. Palat may spend the entire season on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, but there is obvious regression heading his way. After scoring 15 goals and 31 assists (46 points) in 55 games last year, it is impossible to imagine him replicating his 20 power-play points. During the regular season, he averaged 3:13 PP TOI/gm, but once Kucherov returned in the playoffs, he was relegated to the second PP unit and played just 1:03 PP TOI./gm.
Heading back to PP2 means the majority of his production will come at 5v5. That means he will probably top-out around 50 points, so he should go borderline undrafted, not in the eighth round.

Sleeper — Jakub Vrana (DET – LW)

Vrana was a bit of an afterthought in Washington, never playing more than 15:00 TOI/gm. Following his trade to Detroit, Vrana saw a major increase in usage, averaging 17:16 TOI/gm and the production followed.
With the Red Wings, Vrana averaged 2.9 shots per game, which extrapolates to 238 shots over an 82-game schedule. A player with Vrana’s release (13.7 career shooting%) should easily score 30-plus goals with his new role. Vrana goes from Alex Ovechkin’s shadow to the focal point of the Red Wings offence, making a 13th round ADP absurd for a player with his upside.

Right Wings

Value — Kevin Fiala (MIN – LW/RW)

Fiala is another player I have already talked about this offseason, but his ADP has not moved on Yahoo. On FanTrax, an 81.7 ADP makes a lot more sense. However, 138.8 on Yahoo offers tremendous value. In his first two seasons with the Wild, Fiala ranked 21st in Goals/60 and 22nd in Points/60. He set a new career-high in ATOI (16:54) last year, and the Wild did not do much in the offseason that will threaten his usage in 2021-22.
He offers elite shot volume, ranking 11th in Shots/60 and firing at a 242 SOG per-82 game pace since joining Minnesota. In the final third of the draft, it will be tough to find a player with as much upside as Fiala. He is being drafted as a No.3 RW but could finish the season as a low-end No1/high-end No.2 at the position.

Fade — Alexander Radulov (DAL – LW/RW)

There aren’t many RWs that stick out as fades, but Radulov isn’t on my radar, even with a 10th/11th round ADP. It looked as if it was over for the veteran in 2020, but he flashed briefly in 2021, picking up 12 points (4G / 8A) in 11 games before undergoing core muscle surgery.
While he was sitting out most of the season, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson took over as the Stars’ future, and it’s tough to envision Radulov getting enough usage in 2022 to get back to fantasy relevancy. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but there are players with way more upside in the back-third of the draft. It’s not worth wasting that pick on a 35-year-old with a smaller percentage chance of working out.

Sleeper — Viktor Arvidsson (LAK – LW/RW)

From 2017-to-2019, Arvidsson was a lock for 30-plus goals and 30-plus assists but has had a much more difficult time in the last two seasons. This offseason, he was a casualty of the Expansion Draft and was traded to the Kings. In Los Angeles, he should end up on the top line with Anze Kopitar, which could reignite his offensive game. With Philip Danault expected to shoulder more of the defensive load, Kopitar should excel in easier matchups, and Arvidsson should thrive with the change of scenery.
Even while he was struggling in 2020 and 2021, Arvidsson averaged 2.6 shots per game, good for 200-plus shots in an 82-game season. Currently, he’s being drafted in the 15th round on average and offers potential 30-30 upside in the final two rounds.

Defensemen

Value — Brent Burns (SJS – D)

How quickly everyone seems to have forgotten that Burns led all defensemen in goals (84), points (301), PPP (110), and shots (1305) from 2016-to-2019. It would be foolish to expect that level of production in 2022, but it would be equally as foolish to let him fall to the No.28 defenseman.
In his two “down years,” Burns has not missed a game while averaging 236 shots, 12 goals and 36 assists (48 points) per 82 games. You could reasonably consider that his floor for this season and even that kind of production would make him a solid No.2 fantasy defenseman.
Selecting Burns in the 10th round (current ADP: 117.36) could be a league-winning pick.

Fade — Charlie McAvoy (BOS – D)

McAvoy is the complete opposite case as Burns. He is currently being selected as a low-end No.1 defenseman (12th defenseman off the board, 63.2 ADP) and should be going much later. McAvoy is often injured and has struggled to maintain a spot on PP1 in previous years, and with Matt Grzelcyk still on the roster that could continue in 2022.
McAvoy is legitimately one of the best defensemen in the NHL, but that doesn’t always lead to fantasy production. His preseason stock is likely being boosted by his point-per-game performance in the playoffs, but the reality is, he’s probably a 45 point defenseman at best. There’s plenty of players who can produce at that level that you can get much later in the draft.

Sleeper — Vince Dunn (SEA – D)

In his first three seasons with the Blues, Dunn averaged nine goals and 19 assists (28 points) while playing a limited role (17:02 TO/gm).
In 2021 his usage increased (19:15 TOI/gm), and he scored at an 11-goal, 27-assist (38 points) per-82 game pace. Moving from St. Louis to Seattle in the Expansion Draft, Dunn should play even more in 2022. He should be up over 20 minutes per night and will be among the top power-play options for the Kraken.
Dunn is being drafted in the 13th round and has a much higher ceiling than most others who enter the season as No.4 fantasy defensemen.

Goalies

Value — Jacob Markstrom (CGY – G)

There are very few goalies who are almost guaranteed to start 50 games this season, in fact, I only have 13 goalies projected to make at least 50 starts. Markstrom is one of them, projected to start the third-most at 58.6. Yet his current ADP (124.8) has him as the No.22 goaltender off of the board. Drafting Markstrom that late means you could very well wind up with two No.1 fantasy netminders on your team come year-end.
In his first season with the Flames, Markstrom started 76.8 percent of the games (63 start pace in an 82-game season), and he went 22-19-2 with a 2.66 GAA and .904 SV%. Despite some underwhelming numbers from Markstrom, Calgary ranked fourth-best in Expected Goals Against/60 (1.93) at 5v5, giving up the sixth-fewest Scoring Chances Against/60 (23.15) and seventh-fewest High-Danger chances (8.77). They are a good defensive team, that is expecting some of their big guns to return to form offensively this season. They should win plenty of games, and most of those games will come with Markstrom between the pipes. There is no better draft day value than him in net right now.

Fade — Thatcher Demko (VAN – G)

It’s not that I dislike Demko, but he’s very comparable to Markstrom and going three rounds earlier. I also have Demko projected to start 50-plus games, but the Canucks defensive woes will crush his rate stats.
Last season, Vancouver had the highest xGA/60 (2.65), giving up the most SCA/60 (31.64) and second-most high-danger chances (11.77). They didn’t do enough in the offseason that helped them defensively, so expect them to be near the bottom-5 in those categories again in 2022.
The defensive deficiencies are going to hold Demko back and there are plenty of goalies being drafted behind him that I would much rather have–Jordan Binnington, Cam Talbot and Markstrom as examples. 

Sleeper — Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ – G)

Merzlikins had a couple of minor injuries last season, missing a total of 10 games. As a result, he started just 41 percent of the games last year, but he was the Blue Jackets’ best netminder, posting a .916 SV% over 28 appearances. Conversely, Joonas Korpisalo struggled with an .894 SV%.
Merzlikins enters his age 27 season set to take over the starting job for Columbus. With John Tortorella out of the picture, the Blue Jackets should provide their goaltenders with much better goal support and likely more wins. The general public’s outlook on the Blue Jackets heading into the season isn’t pretty, but I believe that they may surprise some people. They aren’t winning the Metro Division and will probably miss the playoffs, but I think they are good enough to make Merzlikins a reasonable low-end No.2/high-end No.3 option by season’s end.
With an ADP of 175.0, he’s going in the second-last round of drafts, and there is solid upside here.