2023-24 NHL team preview: Colorado Avalanche
LAST SEASON
If there’s one theme that plagued the Colorado Avalanche in 2022-23, it was roster depletion. Not only did they lose several key pieces of their 2022 Cup-winning team like Nazem Kadri, Darcy Kuemper, and Andre Burakovsky due to salary cap space, they also got the tough news that captain Gabriel Landeskog would be out for a majority of the 2022-23 season due to a knee injury. Add in that the roster that did return could barely stay healthy as it was during the season, and this Avs team was a shell of its former self.
That depletion made for a rocky first half of the season for the Avs, as they hovered around the .500 mark early on and struggled to consistently get wins. By 40 games into the season, they were 20-17-3 and had several occasions in which their playoff spot was in jeopardy. But after that, they hit their stride, with Nathan MacKinnon in particular going nuclear with 31 goals and 70 points in those final 42 games. Three separate six-game win streaks and another five-game win streak buried those struggles, and a 31-7-4 stretch to end the year gave them not only a playoff spot, but the best record in the Central Division.
The start of a potential Cup repeat saw them face off against the Seattle Kraken, a team that was in their first-ever playoff run, and even the most optimistic Kraken fans likely didn’t see them beating the defending Cup champions. But, that depleted roster proved to be no match for the depth the Kraken had, and along with a Cale Makar suspension and some off-ice drama with Valeri Nichushkin, the Avs found themselves out in the first round.
KEY ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS
Additions
Ryan Johansen, C
Ross Colton, C
Jonathan Drouin, LW
Miles Wood, LW
Chris Wagner, RW
Subtractions
J.T. Compher, C (Det)
Evan Rodrigues, C (Fla)
Alex Newhook, C (Mtl)
Matt Nieto, LW (Pit)
Erik Johnson, D (Buf)
Lars Eller, C (Pit)
Denis Malgin, C (ZSC Lions)
Keith Kinkaid, G (Chicago Wolves)
OFFENSE
The Avs offense wasn’t quite as dynamic as we usually expect from them in 2022-23, as it was tied for 10th with the Los Angeles Kings in goals per game with 3.34, dropped to 12th in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes with 2.67, and dropped even more to 17th in 5v5 expected goals per 60 with 2.68. However, that was mostly due to their lack of depth, as their star players were better than ever this season. MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen hit the 100-point mark for the first time in their careers, Makar was on pace with his Norris-winning 2021-22 season if not for injuries, and Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, J.T. Compher, and Evan Rodrigues all had career years in elevated roles. But beyond that, there wasn’t much contribution from the roster, and with Landeskog out all season, the depth problems led to Colorado’s untimely demise in the first round.
It’s not going to get easier in that regard this season. Compher and Rodrigues are out the door, Landeskog is injured for another season, and they didn’t really get a lot to replace them. Ross Colton certainly has the potential to be a strong top-six forward or an effective third-liner at worst, and maybe Ryan Johansen and Jonathan Drouin find success in a new environment, but there isn’t really a lot of evidence to suggest that this Avs offense is all that better than last year’s edition or good enough to be truly dynamic again. At the very least, their defense is mostly the same iteration as last year’s, so you can expect the same result from them, but there are plenty of questions up front outside of the duo of MacKinnon and Rantanen.
DEFENSE
While the offense took a step back in 2022-23, the defense thrived as much as it always has in this current window of the team. They ranked ninth in goals against per game with 2.72, were tied for sixth in 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes with 2.67, and were sixth outright in 5v5 expected goals against per 60. It helped that most of their losses in the offseason were from their forward group, so they managed to keep that same main group on the blueline of Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, Bowen Byram, Josh Manson, and Erik Johnson together, although injuries did hurt this group as well. Up front, MacKinnon and Rantanen were lacking a bit in the defense department, but Nichushkin, Rodrigues, and Lehkonen proved to be quite valuable there, along with Lars Eller when he was added at the deadline.
That same group will be back again this season, minus Johnson, Rodrigues, and Eller, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to expect a similar result this season, especially if they don’t have as many injuries and can get more than half a season out of Byram and Manson. Up front they weren’t really able to add anyone that can defend, so they’ll still likely lean on Nichushkin and Lehkonen in that regard, and also hope that MacKinnon can find his defensive groove again like he had in the past. But you can afford to have some defensive slouches up front when you have Makar and Toews on the ice for 25-plus minutes a night, because they are two of the league’s best on the blueline and crush any competition they face.
GOALTENDING
Alexandar Georgiev had his fair share of question marks going into his first season as a starting goalie in 2022-23, especially considering he had never played more than 34 games in a season and hadn’t posted above a .910 save percentage in three straight seasons. Well, he quietly had a really strong year as the No. 1 goalie in Colorado, as he almost doubled his games played in a season mark with 62, tied Boston’s Linus Ullmark in first for wins with 40 and had a .919 save percentage. And it wasn’t just because Georgiev was playing behind the Avs’ sturdy defense, as he finished the year with 17.29 5v5 goals saved above expected as well. He wasn’t even the reason that the Avs lost in the playoffs, so there’s not really anything to worry about with him at this point. Francouz also played well with a .915 save percentage in the backup role when he wasn’t hurt, but Georgiev’s play also really helped the Avs during their struggling first half.
That duo returns this season, and with a similar defense corps in front of them, there’s a strong chance that they repeat their success, although with the team ranking fifth in save percentage at .9262, it’s possible there could be a bit of regression. Still, Georgiev proved all the doubters wrong and has transitioned into a full-time starter quite well, so there aren’t really any big question marks for this group in net outside of the depth beyond him and Francouz, with four total games of NHL experience with the three other goalies under contract, all coming from prospect Justus Annunen.
COACHING
Jared Bednar is back for his eighth season behind the bench, making him the third-longest tenured coach in the league behind Jon Cooper and Mike Sullivan, which is pretty good company to keep. You could certainly make the case that Bednar is the best coach in the league, and if not that, he probably isn’t too far behind. Outside of a disastrous first season in Colorado that had more to do with bad timing and bad luck than anything Bednar did himself, he and the Avs have been the model of consistency, making the playoffs for seven straight seasons and managing to win at least one round in all but two of them. They rank eighth in 5v5 shot attempt share with 51.77% and 11th in 5v5 expected goal share with 51.07% in Bednar’s seven seasons with the team, so they’ve earned the consistency, and the three-year stretch from 2019 to2022 where those shares were 55.31% and 54.72% respectively was just as impressive. Regardless of how depleted the lineup could get this year with injuries, there’s no question that Bednar will get the best out of his lineup every night.
ROOKIES
With their goaltending and defense mostly solidified, the forward group is likely where we’re going to see any of the Avalanche rookies come up and get consistent playing time. That said, nothing’s guaranteed, and a long-term injury to anyone in net or on the blueline means some more ice time for someone like Sam Malinski or Annunen.
But, if there were any rookies that had a chance of playing in the NHL full time, it’s probably one of Nikolai Kovalenko, Oskar Olausson, or Jean-Luc Foudy. Olausson and Foudy both got some NHL action last season, with the former only playing once while the latter got a nine-game audition in early December, so they already have a bit of experience and could be some of the first callups even if they don’t make it out of training camp. Kovalenko is the most intriguing option, coming off a nearly point-per-game season in the KHL at 23, so with plenty of pro hockey experience under his belt, he could transition seamlessly and be a solid depth option up front for the Avs.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Will a healthy Avalanche team be a Cup contender again? 2022-23 was an off-brand season for the Avalanche compared to their more recent ones, as they struggled to start the year and also got eliminated in the first round for the first time since 2018, with most of that being due to the team’s poor luck with injuries. Only Rantanen, Compher, Newhook, and Logan O’Connor played all 82 games last season, and only eight players played at least 70 games, and it took an obvious toll on them throughout the year and turned what should have been one of the best teams in the West into surprise first-round upset fodder. Should they have a bit better luck with injuries, will they be back to their normal selves, or was last year’s fate also a sign of a depleted group with all the departures they’ve seen from that Cup-winning team over the past year?
2. How will they replace Gabriel Landeskog? On the topic of injuries, what about the one that we already know they’ll have to deal with in 2023-24? Playing without their captain hurt the Avs last season, and it could sting even more this time around with the roster getting shallower. In terms of his salary, that money mostly seemed to be allocated to some combination of Johansen/Colton, Wood, and Drouin, but will they bring enough value to replicate Landeskog’s? On top of that, will they elect to give the C to somebody new, considering that this is Landeskog’s second season out of action and the future of his playing career is up in the air?
3. Will a Halifax Mooseheads reunion give Jonathan Drouin the bounceback he needs? Perhaps one of the more intriguing signings the Avs made in the offseason was bringing in Drouin on a cheap, one-year deal. The 2013 third-overall pick hasn’t quite lived up to the potential many thought he had on draft day, as even his more successful NHL seasons were only in the 50-point range, but injuries and other struggles have prevented him from even hitting 30 points in the past four seasons. Will reuniting with MacKinnon from their QMJHL days be a second chance at success in the NHL? Or will it be the final nail in the coffin of Drouin’s original draft hype?
PREDICTION
The Avalanche had just about every obstacle sent their way last season and still made the playoffs with ease, so I have a hard time seeing them miss the playoffs this season. The only question is how far of a run do they go on this year? I’d never doubt a team that has the likes of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar on it, as those three alone could give the Avs another Cup, but the lack of depth up front at the moment could lead to a repeat of last season’s performance against the Kraken. The big factor will be what they add at the trade deadline, because that could really change up their lineup, but if their forward group isn’t upgraded by playoff time, they may struggle against deeper teams in the West like the Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars…or the Kraken.
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