2023-24 NHL team preview: New York Rangers

Credit: Artemi Panarin (© Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports)

Note: The New York Rangers have not yet confirmed jersey numbers for Tyler Pitlick, Nick Bonino and Erik Gustafsson. This graphic will be updated at a later date.

LAST SEASON

The Rangers entered 2022-23 as a popular Stanley Cup pick, and for good reason. They were fresh off a 110-point season and an Eastern Conference Final appearance. Their stacked roster included the reigning Vezina Trophy winner in Igor Shesterkin, a 50-goal scorer in Chris Kreider and an all-world defenseman in Adam Fox. They landed one of the top free-agent centers in Vincent Trocheck. Their championship window had arrived.

But a potential dream season just didn’t play out as planned. The Rangers remained one of the better teams in the NHL; they improved their defensive play and scored more goals than the previous year on the strength of improved depth. But the road to get there was bumpy. Shesterkin was “only” great and no longer elite between the pipes. By early December, the Blueshirts struggled to stay above .500 and the ice beneath coach Gerard Gallant began to crack. An in-game tirade from captain Jacob Trouba in which he threw his helmet in the vicinity of the bench seemed to spark a surge, and the Rangers piled up wins in the ensuing months. With New York seemingly back on the Stanley Cup warpath, GM Chris Drury ponied up in splashy trade-deadline deals for Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, and while Tarasenko fit decently, Kane was a shell of himself, fighting through a nagging hip injury that ended up requiring offseason surgery. The Rangers grabbed a 2-0 series lead over the New Jersey Devils in Round 1 of the playoffs and squandered it, losing in seven games.

So 2022-23 went down as a rollercoaster of missed potential. A first-round loss was unforgivable for a team with such high expectations, and Gallant got the axe. Now, the Rangers move forward with a new coach, still one of the better teams in their division but nestled in the shadow of the powerhouse Devils and Carolina Hurricanes. Have the Rangers missed their window?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Blake Wheeler, RW
Nick Bonino, C
Tyler Pitlick, RW
Erik Gustafsson, D
Mac Hollowell, D
Riley Nash, C
Connor Mackey, D

Departures

Patrick Kane, RW (UFA)
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW (Ott)
Niko Mikkola, D (Fla)
Jaroslav Halak, G (UFA)
Tyler Motte, RW (TB)
Libor Hajek, D (UFA)
Ryan Carpenter, C (SJ)
Wyatt Kalynuk, D (Stl)

OFFENSE

Despite possessing tremendous star power with the likes of Kreider, Fox, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad driving the bus, the Rangers were a below-average 5-on-5 team the season before last, relying on an elite power play that cooked at more than 25 percent. They remedied that problem last season, rising close to the middle of the pack in 5-on-5 shot attempt share while maintaining their wicked power-play efficiency. As a result, they jumped from 3.05 to 3.33 goals per game, icing the 12^th-best offense in the league.

The Rangers did so with more balanced scoring than in recent seasons past. Panarin and Zibanejad still delivered more than 90 points apiece, but five Rangers eclipsed 20 goals and seven scored more than 15 – nine if you include Tarasenko and Kane. The emergence of young center Filip Chytil really diversified the team’s depth, as he buried 22 goals in a third-line role, helping establish a deadly top nine.

The Rangers did have somewhat of a black hole on the right wing, which is why they acquired Kane and Tarasenko. Both are gone, with Tarasenko joining the Ottawa Senators as a UFA and Kane still teamless as his hip heals. Cheap signing Blake Wheeler will fill one of those spots after the Winnipeg Jets bought him out. Despite the perception that he’s in decline at 37, he still quietly averages more than 70 points per 82 games over his past three seasons. The big question: who fills the other top-six right wing spot? The Rangers are still waiting for one of Kaapo Kakko or Alexis Lafreniere, the 2019 Draft’s No. 2 pick and the 2020 Draft’s No. 1 pick, to cement themselves in the top half of the lineup. Both players’ under-the-hood numbers suggest their play driving has improved, but it feels like Lafreniere in particular enters a “prove it” season after signing a two-year bridge deal at a $2.325 million AAV. Can new coach Peter Laviolette find a way to spark the former top prospect?

DEFENSE

On the whole, the Rangers are at least a decent defensive club on paper entering 2023-24, with potential for additional growth. They relied far less on Shesterkin to bail them out last season, narrowly cracking the top half of the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against and scoring-chance prevention. Fox puts up sparkling offensive numbers every year but also has a claim to being one of the best defensive defensemen on the planet. He can do pretty much everything at an elite level. He and Ryan Lindgren are established now as a pair, as is the big, mobile, punishing duo of K’Andre Miller and Jacob Trouba. The Rangers got 54.25 percent of the expected 5-on-5 goals with Lindgren-Fox out there, while they broke even with the exciting but occasionally over-aggressive Miller-Trouba duo. Either way, New York’s top four is a clear strength. Even the third pair has some upside. Joining prospect Braden Schneider is underrated UFA signing Erik Gustafsson, coming off an excellent play-driving season. He’s nice power-play insurance should anything happen to Fox, too.

GOALTENDING

It was never going to be easy for Shesterkin to match his magical 2021-22. He was still a top-eight goalie in goals saved above average per 60 last season, but it felt mildly disappointing by his lofty standard to see him slip from a .935 to a .916 save percentage. The possible culprit: Shesterkin started a career-high 58 games. That was only the eighth-biggest workload in the league but, because Shesterkin plays such an athletic, reflex-oriented style, 58 starts for a normal goalie is probably more like 65 for him. He isn’t built to be a true workhorse…

…which made the Rangers’ signing of Jonathan Quick as their new No. 2 a particularly strange and risky decision. Quick was the Shesterkin of his era, the most athletic goalie in the league at his peak, and it wore down Quick’s body relatively quickly. Quick is 37 and holds an .897 SV% over his past five seasons. Ideally, the Rangers would’ve signed a netminder they can count on for 25-plus starts, keeping Shesterkin fresh. Instead, their insurance policy is an injury-prone veteran who has been one of the weaker goalies in the NHL for half a decade. Quick has enjoyed an excellent career, but he could cost New York a few wins in his current state.

COACHING

Laviolette knows who he is at this point: a hired gun who takes over win-now, turnkey operations. He’s earned that right with a 2005-06 Stanley Cup (Carolina) and trips to the 2009-10 (Philadelphia) and 2016-17 (Nashville) Finals. Laviolette has been to the playoffs in 13 of his 21 seasons as a head coach to date. Whereas Gallant’s dump-and-chase system wasn’t a great fit for New York’s skill-laden lineup, Laviolette’s teams tend to be more aggressive off the rush. Fox in particular has potential for a monster year given Laviolette likes his blueliners actively involved on offense. Note that puck-mover Gustafsson’s excellent 2022-23 (pre-trade) came in Washington with Laviolette as his coach. It’s possible the Rangers ice a top-10 offense under Laviolette this season.

ROOKIES

As currently constructed, the Rangers are the NHL’s sixth-oldest team by average age. Their veteran-laden lineup doesn’t leave much daylight for a guaranteed rookie impact, but they do have a few intriguing prospects fighting for roster spots. Physical left winger Brennan Othmann will reportedly get a peek on the right wing during camp. He has yet to play North American pro hockey, however, and might benefit from some time in the AHL. Left winger Will Cuylle scored 25 goals in the AHL last year and is versatile enough to be playable in the bottom six. Given he got a four-game taste of the NHL last year, he probably has the inside track – albeit with a lower ceiling than Othmann’s.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Will Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko ever be top-six forwards? Neither player has been bad enough to qualify as a total bust. But both have been enormous disappointments so far in their careers. A few years ago, virtually every scout would’ve predicted they’d be franchise players by now rather than depth forwards. If the Blueshirts want to win a championship in their current window, Lafreniere and Kakko must make significant strides before the likes of Panarin, Kreider and Zibanejad drift too deep into their 30s. For what it’s worth, Chytil made that leap in his fifth full season. It’s now season 4 for Lafreniere and season 5 for Kakko.

2. How well will Blake Wheeler jive in the dressing room? In consecutive offseasons, Wheeler was stripped of his Jets captaincy and bought out. Whispers emerged from Winnipeg that his influence divided the room. Now, he’ll be joining a team captained by a former Jets teammate in Trouba. Is the outspoken Wheeler willing to be a passenger rather than a leader on his new team?

3. What is Igor Shesterkin’s ideal workload? Shesterkin functioned in peak form with 52 starts two years ago and wasn’t quite as good at 58. But with a shaky backup option in Quick, Shesterkin will be asked to play closer to the latter number again. Will his body be better prepared this time?

PREDICTION

The pressure feels somewhat lower this season given so many of the Rangers’ Metro neighbors, from the Devils to the Hurricanes to the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Columbus Blue Jackets, made noisy offseason additions. That’s not the worst place to be. The Rangers still have a deep and talented roster built to compete in the present and easily make the playoffs, but they may do so with less hype this time around. Whether they can correct course and push for a Stanley Cup depends a lot on whether the kids realize their potential.

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