2025-2026 NHL team preview: Edmonton Oilers
LAST SEASON
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Edmonton Oilers had a sluggish start to the season, turned things around but still struggled with goaltending throughout the season, yet managed to figure things out come playoff time to get to the Stanley Cup Final, only to lose to the Florida Panthers.
It was a bit of a deja vu season for the Oilers, as while their extremes weren’t nearly as bad as the 2023-24 season, it was a bit of a roller coaster. But they managed to get on track, make the playoffs with ease, and make another run to the Final. Of course, the result when they got there was all too familiar.
But this summer was a lot different than last summer. 2024 saw the Oilers bring most of the band back together, short of their younger players in Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. This season, not so much. Plenty of pieces have departed for new teams – some who were disappointments in Edmonton, some who were important pieces. But Edmonton didn’t really replace them, either.
And of course, there’s the massive elephant in the room that is the uncertainty surrounding captain and perennial best player Connor McDavid. He’s in the final year of his contract and has yet to sign an extension. It’d be an understatement to say his decision will significantly impact the Oilers’ Cup chances beyond this season.
So what exactly should fans make of this upcoming season for Edmonton? Is this a last dance with McDavid? Did the Oilers do enough to improve the team from last season to actually win it all this time around? Let’s dive in.
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Andrew Mangiapane, RW
Ike Howard, LW
Curtis Lazar, C
Riley Stillman, D
Departures
Evander Kane, LW (Van)
Viktor Arvidsson, RW (Bos)
Jeff Skinner, LW (SJ)
Corey Perry, RW (LA)
Connor Brown, RW (NJ)
John Klingberg, D (SJ)
Derek Ryan, C (UFA)
OFFENSE
The Oilers usually come with a nuclear offense powered by McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but last season it felt a little bit more human. They were only 11th in goals for per game (3.16), 12th in power play percentage (23.7%), and while their 5v5 offense was much better under the hood (second in 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes with 2.88), it was similarly human on their power play (10th in PP xGF/60 with 9.37). Those rates did improve come playoff time, as they averaged 3.73 GF/G and had a 25.4% PP%.
It’s wild to say that a 100-point season for McDavid was a disappointment, but when you produce 120+ points a season in your sleep, it did feel like a down year. That said, injuries played a significant role in that solely due to a lack of games played, as his 1.49 points per game was still around where he usually produced and one of the best rates in the league.
Luckily for McDavid, Draisaitl picked up the slack, as he was third in scoring with 106 points and led the league in goals with 52, seven more than William Nylander in second place. Draisaitl’s season earned him plenty of consideration for the Hart and Selke trophies as well. But of course, come playoff time, McDavid and Draisaitl regained their true form and were much more dominant with 33 points each. We should expect more of that from them this coming season.
Perhaps another reason for the Oilers’ offense stepping back was the fact their other three players that make up their top power play unit also took some steps back. Zach Hyman went from scoring 54 goals in 2023-24 to only getting 44 points last season. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had 104 points in 2022-23 and had just 49 last season. Evan Bouchard went from a point-per-game defenseman to just 67 points. But like McDavid, they all rallied come playoff time, and while they may not reach those highs again, there should be some improvement from last season.
Beyond that, there are some question marks with the rest of Edmonton’s offense. How will they replace the depth scoring of Perry, Brown, Kane, or even Skinner and Arvidsson? Can Ike Howard and Matt Savoie provide a youthful influx into their top nine? Will Andrew Mangiapane be a good complementary piece to McDavid or Draisaitl or as disappointing in that role as Brown, Skinner and Arvidsson? How much depth scoring can Adam Henrique, Vasily Podkolzin and Trent Frederic provide?
Edmonton should at least be good for roughly 30 points from the other key cogs of their blueline in Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman and Brett Kulak on the back end, although Walman is the only high-end producer of that group. But with so many moving pieces, there’s a lot of uncertainty, especially for a team eyeing a Stanley Cup whose defining feature is its offense.
DEFENSE
The Oilers defense wasn’t quite as effective during the regular season compared to the previous one, whether that was in their results or in their underlying numbers. They were only 14th in goals against per game (2.87), 16th in penalty kill percentage (78.2%), and tied for 11th in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.43) and SH xGA/60 (8.22), and those results didn’t improve in the playoffs (3.32 GA/G, 67.1% PK%). Some of that was their goaltending, but it’s not like Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard had a stifling defense in front of them.
Edmonton will largely have the same blueline as last season, outside of John Klingberg departing for the San Jose Sharks. Ty Emberson will likely take his place, although Troy Stecher will also be a contender for that final slot. But beyond the uncertainty for the No. 6 defenseman, the Oilers have a very strong blueline despite the shaky results seen on the ice.
Ekholm is the centerpiece of Edmonton’s D-corps from a defensive standpoint, and ever since arriving in 2023 (-0.072 5v5 regularized-adjusted plus-minus xGA/60 in the last three seasons), he’s been the perfect complementary piece to Bouchard on that top pair. There are some question marks surrounding his defensive game right now, as he wasn’t quite the same after returning from an injury that kept him out for a good chunk of the playoffs, with a 2.69 5v5 xGA/60 in those seven games compared to 2.4 in the previous four seasons. He’s 35 as well, so who knows when age starts to kick in? If he’s back to normal, perfect. If not, the Oilers may be in a bit more trouble.
If Ekholm is back to form, that will be much better for Bouchard. The Oakville, Ont., product’s defensive struggles are overblown with his play style making him vulnerable to The Big Mistake, but it’s certainly the weaker aspect of his game (-0.036 5v5 RAPM xGA/60). At the very least, Ekholm’s defensive presence allows for Bouchard to focus on being one of the top offensive threats from the blueline without concern.
Making up the rest of the group are the often-criticized Nurse (-0.022 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), the newly acquired Walman (-0.055), and the underrated Kulak (-0.078), with each of them being a great option for a second pair role, and having one extra option is a luxury for the Oilers. Nurse has had his struggles and will always be compared to his contract, but he turned around his defensive game last season to the point of not being a defensive liability like he was in past seasons. Walman and Kulak are certainly improvements defensively, but all three are really solid options as long as they’re not put in roles too big for them.
Up front, the Oilers are also well off in that department. They have lower-end lineup players with excellent defensive results like Podkolzin (-0.149 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), Frederic (-0.038) and Mattias Janmark (-0.069), but more important to their defensive game up front has been the improvement of McDavid and Draisaitl. The late 2010s saw both players put up horrid defensive numbers (0.16 and 0.104), and while McDavid’s has improved over the last few years (-0.002), Draisaitl’s only just started to reach passable last season (0.011). If those two can continue to improve their defensive games, they’ll be even more annoying to play against this season.
GOALTENDING
Despite all the headlines surrounding the Oilers’ goaltending, it’s easy to forget Skinner and Pickard are still playable, at least on a playoff team. They do come with high highs and low lows, so that type of whiplash always creates massive panic, but over the course of the season, the Oilers were 16th in team save percentage in the regular season (.893), and 10th in the playoffs (.884). However, that’s not the kind of goaltending that will win a team a Stanley Cup, and that’s where the problem lies in Edmonton.
Based off last season in particular, the numbers for Skinner (.896 SV%, 0.7 5v5 goals save above expected) and Pickard (.900 SV%, -5.04 5v5 GSAx) just don’t inspire confidence from the Oilers, and it’s clear after two losses in the Stanley Cup Final that they may need to look elsewhere. If it’s not for a bona fide starting goalie, then it should be for a stronger option to play in tandem with Skinner. But for now, this is who Edmonton is starting with, so they’re hoping that one of them finally turns their game around and finds some consistency. Skinner certainly feels like the better bet, but he also feels like the more volatile option.
COACHING
Kris Knoblauch enters his third season behind the bench in Edmonton, and you can’t complain with the results so far. While Jay Woodcroft’s firing two years ago felt very reactionary, Knoblauch has figured out some of the Oilers’ defensive issues and turned their team around, unlocking their potential to at least get them to the Stanley Cup Final in both years he’s been there.
Considering that the most pressing issues seem to be McDavid’s contract extension and the goaltending, it’s hard to see a situation where those problems aren’t addressed first before Knoblauch’s job is in jeopardy in Edmonton. Expect him to continue to extract the best performances out of his players, and even if this Oiler roster’s ceiling isn’t Cup contention this season, he’ll certainly try his hardest to get them there.
ROOKIES
With the Oilers moving on from so many players this summer, help from within is going to be expected, and they’re better poised to do so than most Cup contenders with Howard and Savoie waiting in the wings. Both are expected to slot into the top nine for the Oilers and become long-term options for the team down the road. Where exactly they fit remains to be seen, but they’ll be set up well to make an immediate impact, especially if they play alongside McDavid or Draisaitl.
However, the reason why Edmonton has those two pieces at their disposal is because they traded McLeod and Sam O’Reilly to get them. Otherwise, their prospect pool is just as barren as those of other teams that have consistently drafted late in each round and dealt most of their existing draft pick and prospect capital. If any other rookie gets some NHL time this year, it will either be due to a really impressive training camp or injuries.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. When does Connor McDavid extend? One of the top stories of the summer has been the lack of a contract extension from McDavid as he enters the final year of his current deal. Many expected him to re-sign right out of the gate on July 1, but two months later, there’s been nothing, as he seems comfortable with waiting and seeing what changes are made to this team to help get him a championship. What it is exactly that will encourage McDavid to re-sign, no one truly knows, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it had something to do with…
2. What’s the solution in net? After running with Skinner and Pickard for the better part of the last two seasons (and it not exactly working out), the Oilers are in desperate need of stability in net, and they don’t think they can get it from either goalie. The market isn’t exactly full of goalies, with the best options being the PR nightmare that is Carter Hart and the unstable Tristan Jarry, so maybe Edmonton’s best hope is to wait until later in the season when teams know where they stand and may be willing to move on from their starters.
3. Do the Oilers have another run in them? In 2023-24, Edmonton was a truly elite two-way team and a Cup contender but unfortunately fell one game short. They improved on their roster in the summer (on paper), and looked set to win last season but the on-ice results didn’t line up and they weren’t quite as good, although still good enough to get to the Final. After they lost more pieces this offseason, look even worse heading into the season, and have to deal with the fatigue of consecutive short summers, how much juice is left in the tank?
PREDICTION
As long as McDavid and Draisaitl exist on this team in their primes, the ceiling for the Oilers is the Stanley Cup. They’ve willed the team far in the playoffs in the past, and the more recent iterations have been good enough around them to get them oh-so-close. But at the same time, they’ve lost a decent amount of that depth, and there are enough question marks around the opening day roster that a step back feels likely.
It’s always tough betting against McDavid, because he will always prove you wrong. But as the West gets tougher and the Oilers get a little bit worse, it feels like they may bow out earlier than the past two seasons. They’re still a surefire playoff team and will probably win a round or two, but until we see how well this group clicks on the ice, it’s hard to see them making the Stanley Cup Final for a third year in a row.
All advanced stats come courtesy of Evolving Hockey.
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