2025 Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings: Playoff MVP candidates entering the Stanley Cup Final
The Stanley Cup Final is finally here, and with a rematch from 2024’s exciting finale, we’re in for some entertaining hockey. Arguably the best top-to-bottom team in the league in the Florida Panthers defend their title against arguably the two best players in the league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the Edmonton Oilers, and you know those two will be extra hungry for their first Cup this time around.
Both teams have seen some incredible performances from players on their roster to get to this moment. While the Stanley Cup is what teams play for, the Conn Smythe Trophy is also a massive honor for a player, indicating the importance to their team in winning the Cup (or as we saw last season, how close their play got their team to winning). So, with all the great performances we’ve seen from some players thus far, how do they compare to each other?
Let’s dive into the current race for the Conn Smythe Trophy and see who the frontrunners for the award are as we reach the final stretch. While the value of their performances will play the biggest factor in their rankings, the likelihood of their team winning it all and how much their performance stands out compared to other teammates’ also matters.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Did you really think it was going to be anyone else? McDavid has held down the top spot for every edition of these Conn Smythe power rankings, and he’s coming off what might be his best series of the Oilers’ playoff run with three goals and nine points in the five-game series against the Dallas Stars. That, plus the fact he went into that series in a two-horse race for the trophy with a now-eliminated Mikko Rantanen, makes it very hard to make a case against McDavid.
He’s also the only player between these two teams to win a Conn Smythe Trophy, and that came in a losing effort. He’s probably the only player in this series capable of doing that. It factors heavily into this decision because his odds of winning feel even higher. But it could work against him. There’s a good chance that voters will feel less persuaded to give him the award in a loss again after doing so last season. Considering his scoring pace is slightly under what he did last season (42 points in 25 games in 2024 vs. a 40.63 pace in 25 games this year), and that the lack of games played this time around won’t give him the raw totals that were setting records last year, it will feel slightly underwhelming and not worth the votes unless the Oilers win.
2. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
The weird thing about waxing poetic about McDavid’s performance this year and how big his chances of winning the Conn Smythe are is that Draisaitl is right behind him. McDavid has six goals and 26 points in 16 games, and Draisaitl has seven goals and 25 points. If he has a stronger series than McDavid and the Oilers win the Cup, it’s possible he overtakes his teammate and wins the Conn Smythe instead. That’s certainly not out of the question either, as while the Panthers shut him down last season (just three assists in seven games), he was also injured in that series. He won’t be this time around, at least to start.
But, as it stands, McDavid just has that slight edge on Draisaitl, and it also feels like even putting up crazier numbers than his captain while losing the Final won’t be enough to capture the Conn Smythe like it would for McDavid. That really is the biggest difference here, as Draisaitl’s odds of winning just aren’t as high. But make no mistake, with Rantanen now out of the picture, Draisaitl is now the second horse in this race.
3. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Barkov has slowly worked his way up this list over the course of the playoffs and now might be the frontrunner for the Conn Smythe if the Panthers win. A big factor in putting him over someone like Bobrovsky was his excellent performance in the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes, which saw him get three goals and seven points in the five games. His offensive game has slowly gotten better as the playoffs have progressed, so you can only assume we might be in for a masterpiece in the Stanley Cup Final.
Barkov also continues to be the defensive crutch for this team, and if the Panthers were to beat the Oilers in the Final for a second straight year, it will come down to how well he can stifle McDavid and Draisaitl. If Barkov does so, you’d imagine that it will swing a lot of votes in his favor. On top of that, voters always have a bit of a bias for the captain, so that could help his case.
4. Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers
Say what you will about Bouchard and his two-way game, but he knows how to turn on his game in the playoffs. He currently sits tied for second all-time among defensemen in points per game in the playoffs behind only Bobby Orr. Admittedly, this run is his “worst” of the past three seasons with only 17 points in 16 games, but he still continues to produce at an incredible level compared to others at this position, and it’s that historic level of play that could create an argument for a Conn Smythe win over McDavid.
But, there’s a Catch 22 to Bouchard’s game when it comes to improving his production while trying to sway voters. If Bouchard wants to best utilize his puck-moving ability and playmaking from the back end, he’s going to have to jump up from time to time and aggressively push for offense. But in doing so, he’s likely going to leave himself vulnerable to those glaring defensive errors that garner so much criticism of his game, and that will probably lose him some votes. He should be considered in a similar echelon to McDavid and Draisaitl in this race, but the other two are probably much safer bets considering that.
5. Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers
Bobrovsky is a weird case to evaluate in this ranking. If you were to just look at his counting stats, his .912 save percentage sits third among starting goalies in these playoffs, and while he saw his game slip at times against the Tampa Bay Lightning and early on against the Toronto Maple Leafs, he’s since clamped down in the last nine games and played a big role in their 7-2 run. But a quick look at his underlying numbers, and it showcases that his numbers are slightly boosted by the Panthers’ strong defensive game. With a 2.22 5v5 goals saved above expected, he’s proven to be good enough to not really cost the Panthers too much in this series, but he also hasn’t played at the level that we’ve seen from him in Florida’s previous two runs to the Final.
It could be argued that Stuart Skinner has been the better goalie of the two in these playoffs (.904 SV%, 5.96 5v5 GSAx), but Bobrovsky still has a better chance at the Conn Smythe when you factor in that there are more candidates on the Oilers ahead of Skinner. Plus, when a team is as evenly spread out amongst their skaters like this Panthers team is, voters often default to the goalie.
6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
After a strong performance in the Western Conference Final, Nugent-Hopkins has emerged as a strong dark horse candidate on the Oilers to win the Conn Smythe. After a pedestrian three goals and nine points in 11 games, he exploded with two goals and nine points in the five-game series, and played a big role in the Oilers dismantling the Stars. He was held to just one goal and two points in last year’s Stanley Cup Final, so he’ll need a much better showing this time around if the Oilers want to win, and a strong enough performance could sway some voters.
There is one other factor that could play a role in Nugent-Hopkins’ dark horse candidacy: his tenure with the Oilers. He’s in his 14th season in Edmonton, was the second of the infamous three-straight first round picks, and is the only of the three to last longer than six seasons with the team. He stuck around through the dark times of this franchise, so to see him last through that and possibly win a Cup with this team, while playing a big role in making that happen, could make for a good enough story to get more votes.
Honourable Mentions: Sam Bennett, Stuart Skinner, Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand
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