Who is truly in the race for the Calder Trophy?
We have just more than a month to go in the NHL’s 2025-26 regular season. And it’s clear: the Calder Trophy race is down to just three.
Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke, Montreal Canadiens winger Ivan Demidov, and New York Islanders blueliner Matthew Schaefer have dominated the battle this season. Minnesota Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt and Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Alexander Nikishin have looked solid, too. But the three big dogs have been the most consistent from the get-go and deserve all the love they’re receiving.
The NHL’s rookie of the year honor is one of the top in the sport. You can only make a run at it once, and so many of its winners have become legends. This year might be no exception.
But let’s be real: it’s going to take a miracle for someone outside of Schaefer to win it. He’s in the midst of one of the greatest seasons by a defender taken first overall in the previous draft that the NHL has ever seen. Brian Leetch owns the record for most goals by a rookie defenseman with 23 in 1989. Schaefer’s at 20 already, with 18 games left. He’s on pace to become the first 25-goal scoring rookie defender ever and potentially just the second rookie defender to register 60 points in the 21st Century after Lane Hutson had 66 a year ago. Few defenders over the past 20 years have looked as dynamic as a playmaker, either.
According to MoneyPuck.com, Schaefer’s 11.7 expected goals is third among all blueliners behind Jakob Chychrun (16.6) and Cale Makar (14.8). Those are two star defenders chasing after the Norris Trophy – and Schaefer is right with them. Schaefer doesn’t hit many players, and doesn’t get hit often, either. But because he has speed to burn, opponents are often caught trying to chase him down. Only Jeremy Lauzon (61 PIM) has drawn more penalties among defenders than Schaefer (60) this year.
Much of his defensive dominance comes down to how often he has the puck on his stick. Between the way he thinks and the way he moves, Schaefer is already one of the toughest defenders to steal the puck off of. He’ll make the odd mistake, sure – but he also plays north of 24 minutes a night as an 18-year-old defender. Schafer uses his speed to cut off scoring angles and maintains tight gaps as effectively as any U-20 defenseman we’ve seen in a very, very long time. He’s always moving and looking to shut plays down, and he has the obvious skill and endurance to go the other way to create a quality scoring chance.
If you’re looking for more flash, then Demidov has you covered. The 20-year-old winger was incredibly productive in the KHL last year and is tracking for nearly 65 points in Montreal. The middle-six winger has a solid shot, too. But he makes everyone around him better thanks to his high-end passing and elite processing power.
Demidov is averaging 2.54 points-per-60 at 5-on-5. That’s good for 19th among NHLers with at least 700 minutes played according to Natural Stat Trick. If you sort it by assists, he’s sixth at 1.78. Given he’s hanging around guys like Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Mitch Marner and Macklin Celebrini, that’s quite special. And the Russian winger is doing it despite averaging 15:19 a night, too. Demidov has primarily played with Oliver Kapanen and Juraj Slafkovsky this season – and Kapanen, in particular, has played much worse hockey when not paired beside Demidov.
Perhaps the most entertaining of the bunch, though, is Sennecke. The 19-year-old was a surprise pick at No. 3 by the Ducks in 2024 after registering 68 points in 63 games with the Oshawa Generals. Since then, Sennecke has become one of the most fascinating young players in the game. He recently became the first freshman forward to register 20 goals this season while also cracking 50 points. Sennecke is a human-wrecking ball, too, using his mature 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame to win battles.
But then you watch him play, and he executes moves you’d expect someone 4-5 inches smaller to pull off with ease. Seriously, Sennecke is one of the most skilled forwards you’ll find, exhibiting elite skill on a consistent basis. Sennecke’s ability to absolutely obliterate opponents, with and without the puck, should allow him to become a truly effective power forward for the next 15+ years.
And yet, going up against Schaefer for rookie of the year means he likely won’t get the glory he deserves. Demidov and Sennecke deserve so much credit for the tremendous numbers they’ve put up this season to help their respective clubs stay in the playoff hunt. Without Sennecke, the Ducks absolutely wouldn’t be first in the Pacific Division. Demidov has been so electric for the Canadiens and truly looks like the team’s next superstar.
But what Schaefer – and what Hutson did a year ago – as a defenseman is truly special. He’s tied for the goals lead and is a few points behind Sennecke in the points race, too. Scorers are expected to score – defenders aren’t. So when they do that, and defend well, that’s when blueliners really shine. Calder voters often look at average ice time when deciding on the award. Schaefer is the only rookie with at least 50 games played who averages more than 19 minutes per night, sitting at 24:16. No question about it: Schaefer is the Islanders’ most valuable player. More notably, perhaps, he’s the top rookie in the NHL.
These three have separated from the pack – but good luck taking the crown away from Schaefer.
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