2026 NHL Draft: Top five boom or bust prospects

Jun 25, 2026, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 25, 2026, 10:02 EDT

2026 NHL Draft: Top five boom or bust prospects

Credit: Steven Ellis

Turns out, scouting teenagers isn’t easy.

Even the brightest minds in hockey can be swayed by a certain skillset and archetype only to be burned one way or another. The fact that you can get 10 scouts in a room, ask them the same question about the same player 10 times and get 10 different answers is kind of mind-boggling, honestly.

But building a hockey team in the best league in the world wasn’t designed to be easy. It’s a ruthless sport, and that makes it so difficult to build a true contender.

Today, we’re going to look at five prospects with high-end skillsets but who might have flaws that prevent them from reaching their full potential. Whether it be size concerns, a lack of a “B” game, or what have you, these five players could either be home-run picks or fizzle out altogether due to shortcomings they can’t overcome. It turns out there’s no such thing as a perfect prospect.

With help from some NHL scouts, here’s a look at five boom or bust prospects for the 2026 Draft in Buffalo:

Tomáš Chrenko, C (HK Nitra, Slovakia)

Chrenko fell in my rankings throughout the year, despite me being a big believer in him. His international numbers have been excellent. Between his play at the U-18s last year and the World Juniors this season, no draft-eligible Slovak comes close to being as effective at blasting pucks past goaltenders. He also put up 31 points in 44 games in the top Slovak league this year, and while it’s a little lower on the totem pole among European leagues, he still played anywhere from 13 to 20 minutes a night against pros.

Away from the puck, though, is where things get a bit murky. He’s not big, and some scouts wonder if he’d be better on the wing in the NHL. Chrenko seems to jump out of the way of physical play. That may work in junior or in the Slovak league, but bigger, stronger, smarter players won’t give him the time he wants to exploit. But as a pure shooter, especially on the power play, there’s a lot to love. Chrenko needs to round his game out a bit more to convince me he’ll be an NHLer, but the talent is definitely there. Some scouts see him as a second-rounder – others wouldn’t touch him until the third round because they don’t see much of a game beyond that offense.

Marcus Nordmark, LW (Djurgarden, Sweden U-20)

Nordmark looked like a legitimate option to go in the top 15 early in the year, but only if scouts saw him improve his compete level and his own-zone play. He blends high-end skill and hockey sense to create high-quality chances in the offensive zone. He routinely picks apart opponents in his own age group and has been truly dominant internationally. But scouts worry he’s a ghost defensively and that, if he doesn’t control play offensively, he won’t be good enough to crack the NHL. He has lazy habits that get him into trouble under pressure, and it doesn’t feel like he’s taken enough steps forward to fix that throughout the year.

So he’s polarizing, which isn’t surprising for a 17-year-old with so much room to grow. Is he legit? Scouts aren’t sure yet. On one hand, he can clearly contribute offensively, and it wasn’t uncommon to see him dominate the offensive zone consistently. But between trying to deke out five guys at once, or inconsistent play away from the disk, it just feels like he’s a total boom-bust pick. Could Nordmark thrive on the power play? Absolutely. At his best, Nordmark can be one of the most skilled players in the draft – but his best just doesn’t happen enough. A team will definitely take a chance on him in the second or third round and bank on him becoming a high-impact player at the next level, and that’s fine. I just don’t see a world where he goes in the first round anymore.

Ryan Roobroeck, LW (Niagara IceDogs, OHL)

Roobroeck was once considered a strong candidate for the top 10. His blend of imposing size (6-foot-4, 216 pounds) and pure goal-scoring prowess (99 goals in 176 regular-season games over three years) makes him an undeniably intriguing prospect. You rarely find forwards capable of dictating the play the way he does at his absolute best, especially backed by such a consistent track record of high-level production.

The issue is that, for a player of his stature, he frequently lacks the night-to-night intensity required to be a true difference-maker. It’s frustrating to watch a prospect with Roobroeck’s raw talent drift in and out of plays so routinely. His massive frame makes him a highly effective net-front presence who should easily carve out a role on the power play. However, persistent concerns among scouts regarding his on-ice work ethic and overall motor are exactly why he has likely fallen out of the first-round conversation. I can see him thriving in a power-play role, but banking on a guy making it to primarily thrive on the man advantage is risky.

Carter Casey, G (Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL)

This isn’t a slight against Casey – I really believe in him. Casey’s surface numbers weren’t great, but I actually see Casey’s high-end potential here. He’s one of the most athletic goaltenders in the draft, never giving up on a play, no matter what. He can get a bit overzealous and allow some weak goals from time to time, but an NHL goaltending coach can help reel him in a bit. I think his skating is among the best in the draft class, and he doesn’t get recognized enough. I like his glove hand, and he does a good job of giving shooters little to shoot at.

There’s a ton of talent here – but the consistency needs work. Sometimes, he’s capable of stealing games. Other times, he looks lost and chases after pucks. Scouts have noticed that he’s a more reactive goaltender – someone like a Jonathan Quick or Brandon Bussi. Great comparables, for sure, but risky profiles, for the most part. Casey is incredibly athletic, but at 6-foot-1, it seems like he relies too much on throwing his body around to make saves rather than keeping himself square to the shooter. Scouts have also noticed very few technical improvements in his game over the past year, which isn’t great. That being said, I think he’s legitimately one of the most talented goaltenders in this class and would absolutely use a second- or third-round pick on him. As always, goaltenders are risky picks, but I think Casey has a legitimate shot at becoming a starting goaltender if he improves his positioning.

Xavier Villeneuve, LHD (Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, QMJHL)

Just because Villeneuve will go lower due to his smaller 5-foot-11 frame doesn’t mean I dislike him. Villeneuve was one of the best defensemen at the 2025 U-18 World Championship, helping Canada win gold. He had 62 points last season in the Q and would have surpassed that this year if he hadn’t missed about 25 games due to injury. Villeneuve can drive the play from the point and is as good as anyone in this draft class on the man advantage. I loved him at the CHL USA Prospects Challenge in particular – it felt like he was playing with a boatload of confidence.

Will he defend well enough at the next level? Honestly, there’s enough raw talent to make it seem like he’ll be just fine. He’s an outstanding skater – one of the best in the draft class. Villeneuve can dangle better than just about anyone. But, like his favorite player, Lane Hutson, defense comes secondary. It’s not that Villeneuve is bad defensively, because he isn’t. It’s that his defense is powered by the fact that he routinely has the puck, and few opponents seem to be able to slow him down. Villeneuve will follow Hutson’s footsteps at Boston University next year, and if Villeneuve can prove his offense can translate to the next level, he’ll be fine. If not? That’s a problem for a different day, I guess. But I like him, and I think he’ll be fine.

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