2026 Olympics: Updated Team Canada roster projections
With Steven Ellis
We all know the feeling. Halloween ends, and by the time the last morsel of candy drops into the final kid’s bag, the Christmas decorations and ads start popping up, and society enters the holiday season whether we want it to or not. It creeps up in a hurry.
We might end up feeling the same about the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics. The NHL season started less than a month ago but, suddenly, the World Series is over, the calendar has shifted to November, and we’re not even two months out from the 12 men’s hockey nations at the 2026 Winter Games submitting their rosters.
As of Dec. 31, every country must narrow its squad down to 22 skaters and three goaltenders. It’s thus time to update our latest roster projections now that we’ve seen a month of NHL game action. Here’s how Steven Ellis and I have the teams shaping up – starting with Canada.
FORWARDS (14) – Matt Larkin’s picks
| Mark Stone | Connor McDavid | Brayden Point |
| Sidney Crosby | Nathan MacKinnon | Sam Reinhart |
| Brandon Hagel | Anthony Cirelli | Mitch Marner |
| Macklin Celebrini | Nick Suzuki | Seth Jarvis |
| Mark Scheifele | Tom Wilson |
OUT: Sam Bennett
IN: Mark Scheifele
As usual, Canada has endless permutations to consider and could make a legit gold-medal-caliber forward group entirely out of players who won’t make the Milan team. For now, I’m sticking with the first three 4 Nations Face-Off lines, though Stone’s recovery from a wrist injury will be worth monitoring as the Vegas Golden Knights have him on LTIR. The most recent updates haven’t given any indication he’ll be out deep into the winter.
Biggest flex: Scheifele is scoring simply too much to be denied. I know Bennett played an important role as a tone setter for Canada at the 4 Nations, but he was a healthy scratch to open the tourney and has struggled early this season as Florida’s de factor No. 1 center with Aleksander Barkov out. We have to allow for at least a little bit of recency bias in the roster projection. So maybe Scheifele comes aboard as an incredibly accurate shooter who can help the power play if need be.
Toughest cut: Connor Bedard seems to have levelled up this season but, given Celebrini’s more complete game and strong play at the 2025 World Championship, he gets my “young guy” nod. I could see Brad Marchand making this team, but he’s 37 and wore down last winter; he played some of his worst hockey of the year at the 4 Nations, seemingly struggling to keep up with the breakneck pace. Robert Thomas, meanwhile, can’t catch a break: for the second consecutive season, he got hurt in the fall and missed a crucial window to play his way onto the team. He’ll have to heat up in a hurry once he returns.
Also considered: Connor Bedard, Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, Robert Thomas, Mathew Barzal, Wyatt Johnston, Travis Konecny
FORWARDS (14) – Steven Ellis’ picks
| Brayden Point | Connor McDavid | Mitch Marner |
| Sidney Crosby | Nathan MacKinnon | Macklin Celebrini |
| Sam Reinhart | Mark Scheifele | Connor Bedard |
| Mark Stone | Nick Suzuki | Seth Jarvis |
| Anthony Cirelli | Tom Wilson |
This is where the real power lies. Canada has three of the top five scorers this season (Scheifele, MacKinnon and Celebrini), with two of them missing out on the 4 Nations roster. In fact, some of the most exciting players on this roster are guys who missed out in February – Celebrini and Bedard, in particular. It’s a deep group that can overpower you with skill. There’s some toughness there, too, but Canada’s real strength is what they do with the puck, and they should lean into that 100 percent.
Biggest flex: Crosby can play with anyone. But if Celebrini is on this team, and he should be, put him beside No. 87. The pair were absolutely electric at the World Championship, outsmarting just about everyone every single shift. It felt like Celebrini understood Crosby’s decision-making and passing choices better than anyone Crosby has skated alongside in recent years. Crosby and MacKinnon are a safe pair, but adding Celebrini brings another level of dynamism that can’t be matched.
Toughest cut: With how Johnny T has been playing in Toronto, it’s hard to keep him off this group. It feels like he found new life last year, and his new contract makes him one of the best bargain forwards in the league. But there’s no salary cap at the Olympics, and with so much center depth to choose from, Tavares was just the odd-man out here.
Also considered: John Tavares, Brad Marchand, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Quinton Byfield, Sean Couturier, Mathew Barzal
DEFENSEMEN (8) – Matt Larkin’s picks
| Devon Toews | Cale Makar |
| Thomas Harley | MacKenzie Weegar |
| Josh Morrissey | Travis Sanheim |
| Matthew Schaefer | Shea Theodore |
IN: Matthew Schaefer, Shea Theodore
OUT: Evan Bouchard, Colton Parayko
Recency bias for the win! Yes, Canada has very rarely awarded crucial roster spots to teenagers for best-on-best competition. But Schaefer has played so well this season at both ends of the ice that he’s undeniably one of the best eight Canadian blueliners right now, is he not? Canada took a 20-year-old Drew Doughty to the 2010 Olympics, for what it’s worth. It’s also fascinating that Harley has gone from emergency fill-in at the 4 Nations to, in my mind, a borderline lock to make this team.
Biggest flex: Schaefer, obviously. It’s more likely Colton Parayko gets the spot again, but that would be a mistake in my mind: an eye-test-only player, he was arguably Canada’s worst defender at the 4 Nations.
Toughest cut: I understand that Evan Bouchard didn’t make the 4 Nations team and has played worse this season so far, but I wish he’d get stronger consideration. His all-around game is underrated, the mental errors and highlight-reel blunders seemingly overshadowing all the good things he does, and his shot would be a weapon on the power play.
Also considered: Evan Bouchard, Colton Parayko, Dougie Hamilton, Jakob Chychrun, Noah Dobson
DEFENSEMEN (8) – Steven Ellis’ picks
| Devon Toews | Cale Makar |
| Josh Morrissey | Thomas Harley |
| Shea Theodore | Travis Sanheim |
| Matthew Schaefer | Colton Parayko |
Biggest Flex: I’m not even sure this is a flex, but while Matt took out Parayko, I feel like he’s going to make the team regardless. He’s huge, does a good job of getting the puck out of the zone and can shut you down. While Schaefer is definitely the exciting pick here, Parayko feels like a safer choice to play – partly due to his age, but also because there isn’t another defender in the lineup who’ll do what he does. Canada won’t expect much from their No. 7-8 defenders (unless there’s an injury), but you might as well prepare in case you need some shutdown help.
Toughest Cut: Is Bouchard good enough for best on best competition? Many don’t think so. But if you limit his defensive responsibilities and let him focus on adding a bit of offensive punch if things go south, he can get the job done. If Schaefer doesn’t make the cut, I could see Bouchard being the No. 8 defender they call upon to play on the second power play.
GOALTENDERS (3) – Matt Larkin’s picks
| Jordan Binnington |
| Mackenzie Blackwood |
| Adin Hill |
IN: Mackenzie Blackwood
OUT: Sam Montembeault
What a mess. Hill is hurt, Sam Montembeault has been arguably the NHL’s worst goalie this season, and Binnington has fared poorly along with his St. Louis Blues early in 2025-26 as well. Binnington still keeps the gig on the grounds of standing tall as Canada’s championship-winning starter at the 4 Nations, but the depth chart could see a shakeup despite the fact that Binnington, Hill and Montembeault were the only goalies invited to Canada’s summer orientation camp.
Biggest flex & toughest cut: They’re the same, so I’ll address them together. Where the heck is Logan Thompson? He has been Canada’s best goalie for the past 13 months, so he should be starting, not just making the team. But he’s been ignored by the Canada brass repeatedly, having never even received a call about the 4 Nations last year when he was in the midst of a season that landed him fourth in the Vezina Trophy vote. The between-the-lines chatter: he’s not viewed as a good dressing room fit, particularly if his old Vegas teammate Hill makes the team and especially because Canada’s coaching staff includes current Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy and former head coach Pete DeBoer. Canada would be wise to pick Thompson, who seems to fit into the Washington Capitals’ room just fine, but I’ll be shocked if it happens.
Also considered: Logan Thompson, Darcy Kuemper, Sam Montembeault, Cam Talbot, Jake Allen
GOALTENDERS (3) – Steven Ellis’ picks
| Jordan Binnington |
| Mackenzie Blackwood |
| Adin Hill |
Ah, the never-ending Canadian goaltender question. Most observers were scared about Binnington being the No. 1 – and, honestly, it was hard not to be. But when they needed him to shine, he did, outdueling Connor Hellebuyck in the title fight. Binnington’s numbers have been ugly in St. Louis, but that’s partly a team issue, too. Canada’s best goaltender is Thompson – and if you read above, you already know why he wasn’t included. Canada should be fine in the round-robin, which will hopefully give someone like Binnington enough time to reach peak performance for when it really matters.
Toughest cut: I can’t believe I’m saying this, especially because of how last year went, but… Tristan Jarry. He’s off to a dynamite start to essentially revive his career in a way nobody saw coming. Statistically, Jarry deserves to be on this team right now. But would Hockey Canada take someone with very little history with the group, internationally? His only international experience came back at the 2011 U-17 World Challenge. That means no World Juniors and no World Championship for the 30-year-old. If he keeps things up until December, though, they might have no choice but to take him.
Also considered: Stuart Skinner, Samuel Montembeault, Tristan Jarry, Logan Thompson
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____