2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Canadiens series preview
Carolina Hurricanes: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 113 points
Montreal Canadiens: 3rd in Atlantic Division, 106 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time (ET) |
| Thursday, May 21 | 1. Montreal at Carolina | 8:00 PM |
| Saturday, May 23 | 2. Montreal at Carolina | 7:00 PM |
| Monday, May 25 | 3. Carolina at Montreal | 8:00 PM |
| Wednesday, May 27 | 4. Carolina at Montreal | 8:00 PM |
| *Friday, May 29 | 5. Montreal at Carolina | TBD |
| *Sunday, May 31 | 6. Carolina at Montreal | 8:00 PM |
| *Tuesday, June 2 | 7. Montreal at Carolina | 8:00 PM |
The Skinny
Winning any round during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, let alone two, typically requires all manner of high drama, from wince-inducing physical sacrifice to epic in-game comebacks. The Carolina Hurricanes are not a typical team, and there is no place for drama amid their dominance. By sweeping the upstart Philadelphia Flyers in four games, the Canes became the first club since the inception of the seven-game first round in 1987 to win its first eight playoff games.
There have been close shaves, sure, like a double overtime slugfest with the Ottawa Senators early in the first round or a furious push by the Flyers in Game 2 of the conference semis. In the end, though, they were nothing more than the death throes of two defensively sound, 98-point teams very much built in the image of Rod Brind’Amour’s Canes, except without the ability to replicate Carolina’s tremendous pace and pressure.
Led by the scoring of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Jackson Blake on a stellar second line, K’Andre Miller’s emergence on the back end, and a resurgent Frederik Andersen in goal, this year’s Hurricanes feel like more than a litmus test, not least because the Florida Panthers aren’t around to rain on their parade; for the first time in any of its three semi-recent trips to the ECF, Carolina is the prohibitive favorite.
While the Hurricanes have played the fewest possible games to return to the conference final, their opponents have battled through the maximum 14. The Montreal Canadiens saw off the challenge of a battle-tested Tampa Bay Lightning group in seven, only for the worst-to-first Buffalo Sabres to drag them into overtime in another winner-take-all tilt in Round 2, where Alex Newhook’s fluttering wrister through Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen fired the Habs past their latest test.
Remarkably, the Canadiens have trailed in a series for exactly as many days as Carolina. That is to say, zero. It hasn’t always been pretty (an 8-3 drubbing at home with a chance to close out Buffalo was anything but). Still, the steely determination of rookie Jakub Dobes in goal and the pretenernatural calm of head coach Martin St. Louis have helped forge an unflappable mentality throughout Montreal’s lineup.
Is that enough to survive the next test, a team that places its opponents under siege from the opening puck drop? St. Louis has taken the Canadiens from rebuilder to playoff club to contender at lightning speed, but it’s taken future Stanley Cup champions to knock off the Canes in three of their last five postseason trips. If the Habs are to prove they are the NHL’s newest powerhouse, they must push through one of its most established.
Head to Head
Carolina: 0-3-0
Montreal: 3-0
The regular season is shrinking in the rearview by the day, but a clean sweep of a team of Carolina’s caliber cannot and should not be ignored. Montreal was the only Eastern team to achieve the feat, with two of its victories taking place deep into March.
The Hurricanes might not put much stock in a season series they lost despite a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in scoring chances thanks to a .750 (!) team SV%. The Canadiens fired seven goals past Brandon Bussi, who won’t likely appear in this series, on New Year’s Day, and the Frederik Andersen who couldn’t buy a save in March was not the same player we’ve watched in recent weeks.
Still, the New York Rangers’ series victories over Carolina in 2022 and 2024 showed that a group with high-end talent and hot goaltending can burn the Canes even over a large sample size. The parallels between those Rangers and these Habs are worth noting.
Dobes’s game-stealing performances against the Hurricanes in the March games (.962 SV%) will give hearten Montreal, while Carolina’s ability to shred the Canadiens on the power play (4/8) could signal better days ahead for a unit that has struggled during the playoffs.
Top Five Scorers
Carolina
Taylor Hall, 12 points
Jackson Blake, 11 points
Logan Stankoven, 8 points
K’Andre Miller, 6 points
Sebastian Aho, 4 points
Montreal
Lane Hutson, 14 points
Nick Suzuki, 13 points
Alex Newhook, 9 points
Cole Caufield, 9 points
Juraj Slafkovsky, 9 points
Offense
If there’s one reason for concern that Hall, Stankoven, and Blake earned a shoutout in “The Skinny,” it’s that Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov, usually the stars of this operation, didn’t. Aho, who has led Carolina in scoring in eight of the past nine seasons, isn’t getting looks (1.75 shots per game, down from 2.47 in regular season) the way he’s accustomed to. Two-way ace Jarvis has been uncharacteristically quiet away from the puck. Power forward Svechnikov is doing lots of shooting (26 SOG, 2nd on CAR) and hitting (32 hits, T-2nd on CAR), but the goals haven’t followed.
Most concerningly, the Hurricanes’ big guns, who are as renowned for their play-driving as for their skill, are losing the high-danger chance battle decisively as a unit (6-16).
Carolina’s power play, which finally joined the ranks of the NHL’s elite (24.9%, fourth) during the regular season, largely due to the work of big-ticket free agent Nik Ehlers (29 PPP) and free-scoring defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere (18 PPP in 55 GP), has also gone missing. Getting the top line, the man advantage, or both, firing could improve a passable attack (3.00 goals per game) back into the Cup-worthy offense we saw in the regular season (3.55, 2nd).
Hall and his young linemates have more than covered the difference for the Aho line’s sluggishness and a middling man advantage so far. Hall’s playmaking from the wing and Blake’s motor have helped unlock Stankoven’s potential as a finisher (seven goals), and the under-the-hood metrics are just as impressive (72.29% expected-goal share, 4.97 xG/60). Brind’Amour tends to shuffle his group, but would struggle to justify moving on from a line that has crushed the opposition so decisively at five-on-five (9-0 on-ice score).
Unlike the Hurricanes, Montreal’s “Top Scorers” section is riddled with its best players. Still, the Canadiens’ top line has endured its own struggles. 101-point captain Nick Suzuki, Rocket Richard runner-up Cole Caufield, and former top selection Juraj Slafkovsky buoyed their production by smashing through Buffalo’s overmatched PK (30.8% conversion rate), but have combined for just three even-strength goals to go along with a ghastly -20 total rating. Against a Carolina kill (95%) that humiliated both Philadelphia’s last-placed man advantage and Ottawa’s top-ten unit, the Habs big guns must produce at five-on-five to keep their season alive.
While the Canes have covered for their stars’ quiet start with a scorching hot second unit from the start, it took St. Louis a round to identify his own winning middle-six trifecta. It was worth the wait; two-way pivot Jake Evans, Calder runner-up Ivan Demidov, and (two-time) Game 7 hero Newhook burned the Sabres for a combined 10 goals and 20 points while out-chancing Buffalo by a dominant 39-23 margin. Newhook’s clutch finishing (five goals) was the story against Buffalo, but the new line’s ability to unlock Demidov, who had struggled throughout his nascent playoff career, could prove just as important.
That’s the forwards covered, but let’s not forget about the Canadiens’ leading scorer, blue-line maestro Hutson. The diminutive defender’s puckhandling wizardry has helped him rack up seven assists for Montreal’s impressive power play. At even strength, though, Montreal’s ability to create chances with Hutson on the ice has taken a significant dip in the close-quarters combat of playoff hockey (2.62 xG/60, down from 3.05 in the regular season). Things won’t get any easier against the league’s most smothering forecheck.
Defense
There are no surprises when it comes to Carolina’s territorial dominance in the Brind’Amour era. Thanks to a relentless five-man forecheck led by weathered captain Jordan Staal and his right-hand man Jordan Martinook and a defensive corps that keeps the bad guys from reaching the offensive zone to begin with, the Hurricanes have spent fewer than 56 minutes (Game 2 vs. PHI) behind this postseason.
Jaccob Slavin, as ever, is the club’s defensive conscience on the blue line. Though he played sparingly during the regular season due to a pair of long-term injuries, the most respected defensive defenseman in the sport is back to using his elite stick and smarts to quash rushes, swat pucks out of the air, and, occasionally, take them off the goal line. Slavin’s partner Jalen Chatfield, a quick, reliable righty, has played his way to the top of Brind’Amour’s lineup by crushing every down-lineup deployment his coach has thrown at him over the years.
With Slavin and Chatfield (2.35 xGA/60 as a pair) on hand for the toughest assignments, K’Andre Miller and Sean Walker have obliterated the opposition (7-1 on-ice score) on second pair with excellent recovery speed and puck-carrying capabilities. Miller, in particular, has been one of the breakout stars of the postseason. The big man is finally cashing in on the immense potential he showed in his early days with the Rangers; his mobility and stick work have fit right into the Hurricanes’ swarming neutral zone ‘D.’
Where defense forms the nucleus of Carolina’s team identity, it seemed an abstract concept to Montreal against Buffalo. Selke favorite Suzuki (3.61 xGA/60) and veteran matchup center Philip Danault (4.53) were underwater throughout the series. The nominal shutdown pairing of Quebecois defenders Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier, who got pancaked by Tampa for seven games (out-chanced 17-54) in the first round, didn’t fare much better (3.91).
Despite Matheson and Carrier’s continued struggles to drive play, St. Louis has continued to pair his two best puckmovers, Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson, the latter of whom played with Matheson for much of the regular season. Hutson and Dobson have been on the ice for plenty of chances, both for (27.96 per 60) and against (31.64).
Kaiden Guhle, once regarded as the Habs’ top stopper, teamed up with Hutson, Dobson, Carrier, and scarcely-used banger Arber Xhekaj on a rolling basis while struggling to develop chemistry with any of them. That Xhekaj is tied with Guhle for the lead among remaining players in minor penalties (9), despite an ATOI of just 8:06, feels like an invitation for Carolina to sort out its power-play woes at the Canadiens’ expense. The lack of coherence in Montreal’s defensive structure did not outweigh its offensive opportunism through two rounds, but the cracks in its armor are alarmingly obvious.
Goaltending
‘Rod the Bod’ must feel more than a little vindicated about his faith in Andersen. Ole Freddy has been nigh invincible through two rounds, especially when the Canes’ aggression on the forecheck leaves them open to odd-man rushes (.946 high-danger SV%). The working theory for why the injury-prone Andersen, who hasn’t played in more than 35 games in a season since 2022, has faltered as the playoffs wear on (.862 playoff SV% for CAR after eighth appearance) is that his body can’t stand the strain of all those consecutive starts.
Now that his dominance (and that of his teammates) has brought Andersen at least a week of rest ahead of both Rounds 2 and 3, can the ‘Great Dane’ hold it together long enough to help Carolina back to the Stanley Cup Final 20 years on from their successful second visit? If not, Brandon Bussi is even more rested; the come-out-of-nowhere 31-game winner was brilliant before the grind of his first NHL campaign caught up with him after the break.
Andersen’s revival is, at best, the second-most discussed story in goal this postseason. The top spot, of course, belongs to Dobes. Just when it seemed the rookie had finally turned into a pumpkin after the Sabres shellacked him for six in Game 6, Dobes turned it on when the cards were down, stopping 37 of 39 shots, including 19 of 20 from high-danger areas. Talk about nerves of steel.
Dobes’s second series-stealing performance in two rounds upped his playoff SV% to .910, a mark that probably shouldn’t be possible given the state of the Habs’ defense. The volume of shots Dobes will face against the Hurricanes could be massive given the disparity in these teams’ ability to keep the puck, but his aggressive depth and athletic recoveries have already helped him stymie two top-five scoring offenses. What’s one more?
Injuries
Alexander Nikishin recovered from his concussion against the Senators in time for Game 3 against Philadelphia, leaving the Hurricanes’ injury report bare ahead of their matchup with Montreal. The old axiom that “everyone is playing through something this time of year” may not even apply to Carolina by the time the puck drops on Game 1; the Canes’ sweep of the Flyers and the spirited seven-game battle on the other side of the bracket will have given Carolina a playoff-record 12 days off.
Though they’ve played nearly twice as much hockey as Carolina and surely will carry more bumps and bruises into the Eastern Conference Final, the Canadiens also boast a clean bill of health; Patrik Laine remains on IR but has been out of the team’s plans for several months. Capable bottom-pair defenseman Jayden Struble and veteran winger Brendan Gallagher were among the Habs in the press box for Monday’s Game 7, so St. Louis has options should an injury take place.
Intangibles
Both Brind’Amour and Carolina’s fans have bristled at the notion that a team that has been so good for so long can only enjoy a successful season by either lifting the Stanley Cup or coming darn close. The 26 other teams and fanbases who have not enjoyed championship success during that time would give anything for what the Canes have built. Still, as excellent as the Hurricanes have been since their one-time captain returned behind the bench, they haven’t come all that close, winning just one conference final game in three trips during the Brind’Amour era.
Want to avoid another 12 months of explaining that seven years’ worth of 100-point finishes and series wins isn’t all that bad? Win, and win big against a young club that wasn’t supposed to make it this far. That the rest of the hockey world views this as a relatively straightforward task only confirms that all the pressure lies with Carolina to break through, regardless of what Brind’Amour or anyone else says.
For the Canadiens, the sort of intangible factors that often draw scoffs in this age of advanced analytics might be their clearest area of advantage. The youngest roster to advance to this stage since the 1993 Canadiens, this group must feel invincible after consecutive Game 7 victories. Even the “old guys,” Caufield and Suzuki (who won a third round in 2021), are in their mid-20s, and there’s no antidote for jitters like youthful enthusiasm.
Whether the Canadiens are really ready for a team of the Hurricanes’ caliber, they’ll certainly enter this stand unburdened by expectations and unbothered by the magnitude of the moment.
X-Factor
It might not boast the spectral mystique of the old Forum, but Montreal’s Bell Centre is a cauldron that produces noise on a seismic level before the teams have even left the tunnel. That’s true on any random Tuesday in November, let alone this time of year. It’s bizarre, then, that the Canadiens have won just twice there in six tries this postseason, and more bizarre still that they’ve advanced this far all the same.
Raleigh’s Lenovo Center might not get the same respect as some big-market buildings, but its boisterous fans, dodgy deejaying, and infamously inadequate away locker room make it a brutal place to play for visitors, nonetheless. It’s true that the ‘Lenny’ has lost some of its luster in previous failed ECF bids, but the Hurricanes’ 33-16 playoff record at home since 2019 is too impressive to write off as a statistical anomaly.
The Canadiens will need to turn their rabid home atmosphere into wins to continue on their journey to Cup No.25. Their road warrior act thus far speaks to their resilience and mental fortitude, but needing to take three or four games in Carolina would land them in dire straits, given all the other factors working against them.
Series Prediction
If a team of kids who just limped out of a second-consecutive seven-game war and a well-rested juggernaut with something to prove doesn’t sound like a fair fight, it’s because it isn’t. The Hurricanes left the door open against the Flyers enough times for a team with finishers like Montreal’s to make them pay on a given night. Still, Carolina’s massive advantage in play-driving makes this a matchup between a team with great individuals and a great team. Those only end one way.
Hurricanes in five games.