2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Senators series preview
Carolina Hurricanes: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 113 points
Ottawa Senators: 2nd Eastern Conference Wild Card, 99 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time (ET) |
| Saturday, April 18 | 1. Ottawa at Carolina | 3:00 PM |
| TBD | 2. Ottawa at Carolina | TBD |
| TBD | 3. Carolina at Ottawa | TBD |
| TBD | 4. Carolina at Ottawa | TBD |
| *TBD | 5. Ottawa at Carolina | TBD |
| *TBD | 6. Carolina at Ottawa | TBD |
| *TBD | 7. Ottawa at Carolina | TBD |
*If necessary
The Skinny
This is the first time these two teams have met up in a playoff series, and while they won’t be breaking any records for television ratings with this one, it sets up as one of the more intriguing matchups in the first round.
These are teams that play wildly similar games. On a recent episode of his podcast Wingmen with his brother Matthew, Senators captain Brady Tkachuk mentioned directly that the Senators like to model their game after the Hurricanes. That means tight checking, highly aggressive forechecking and in-your-face pressure meant to force the other team into mistakes with the puck to flip possession.
Both teams are also very good at playing that way. Carolina is second in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage at 55.89%, while Ottawa is third in the league at 54.39%. Only the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche are better than these two teams at controlling possession and chance quality. While the Minnesota-Dallas series in the will draw the headlines for pitting the second and third-best teams in the West against each other, a somewhat reasonable case could be made that Carolina and Ottawa are the two best teams in the East. As the No. 1 seed, Carolina’s case is fairly straightforward, and Ottawa is no worse than fifth by any objective measure of its on-ice performance. This is a heavyweight bout.
As far as historical significance, these two smaller-market franchises are both underrated for their penchant for exciting playoff runs this century. The 2002 Hurricanes stunned New Jersey, Montreal and Toronto in quick succession in the pre-salary cap era to reach the Stanley Cup Final. When Carolina won the Stanley Cup in 2006, it was Ottawa that was the dominant No. 1 seed in the East. The Sens then made their own run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2007, only to lose to Anaheim.
Ottawa’s 2017 run to the Eastern Conference Final shines as one of the more fun underdog stories of recent NHL vintage, but that stands as the last time the Senators won a playoff series, which could be a separating factor here. Carolina was absent from the playoffs from 2010 to 2018, but beginning in 2019, they’ve made the playoffs every year and won at least one round every postseason. Since Ottawa last won a series, Carolina has won 10.
Head to Head
Carolina: 2-1-0
Ottawa: 1-2-0
It’s hard to glean too much from two of these three regular season meetings and apply it to what we’ll see in a playoff series.
Ottawa’s win came by an impressive 6-3 margin on April 5, when Carolina came to town on the second half of a back-to-back with its division title largely secured to play a Sens squad that, while not having a rest advantage, hadn’t traveled and was fighting for their playoff lives.
Likewise, when the Hurricanes beat Ottawa 4-3 in Raleigh on Feb. 3, they had a rest advantage and faced 38-year-old veteran James Reimer, who will not be a factor in this playoff series barring something unforeseen.
Reimer was also in net for Carolina’s 4-1 win in Ottawa on Jan. 24, but with how well Brandon Bussi played in that game, it did not particularly matter who was in net for the Sens, who did dominate that game territorially, but not when adjusted for score effects.
It feels rare for three regular season matchups after New Year’s Day to say so little about a playoff series, but neither team should feel like they have much of a leg up after a regular season series that saw the Canes take two out of three.
Top Five Scorers
Carolina
Sebastian Aho, 80 points
Nikolaj Ehlers, 71 points
Andrei Svechnikov, 70 points
Seth Jarvis, 66 points
Jackson Blake, 53 points
Ottawa
Tim Stutzle, 83 points
Drake Batherson, 71 points
Brady Tkachuk, 59 points
Dylan Cozens, 59 points
Jake Sanderson, 54 points
Offense
Under head coach Rod Brind’Amour, Carolina has earned a reputation as a team that excels defensively and does just enough offensively to win games and go on decent playoff runs in the spring. The Hurricanes’ scoring has historically dried up when met with elite goaltending in the playoffs. Their last five playoff series losses have come at the hands of Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Shesterkin again and Bobrovsky again. They won’t face that sort of test in net in this series, and there’s reason to be more bullish on their ability to score goals when the game tightens up.
Carolina will finish the season first in the East in goals for with 296. That is 17 goals clear of their best 82-game season under Brind’Amour, and the offensive depth is much stronger than usual. The Hurricanes are the only team in the NHL to have seven different players (Jarvis, Svechnikov, Aho, Ehlers, Blake, Stankoven, Staal) reach the 20-goal threshold. Taylor Hall came close with 18. Carolina also boasts the best power play in the East and fourth-best in the NHL with a conversion rate of 24.9%. The combination of Shayne Gostisbehere at the point and the newly signed Ehlers as a crafty distributor has made it the best power play the Canes have had in the Brind’Amour era.
The notion that Carolina’s top forwards produce less in the playoffs doesn’t align with reality, either. Sebastian Aho has a higher point-per-game rate for his career in the postseason than in the regular season. So does Seth Jarvis. Since returning from his torn ACL in 2023, Andrei Svechnikov rises to a point-per-game level in the postseason.
Ottawa has a good amount of depth to counter Carolina’s seven 20-plus goal scorers. Tim Stutzle continues to be a lock for at least 75 points, and Drake Batherson turned in the best offensive year of his career. Brady Tkachuk finished his injury-marred season just a tick below a point-per-game, and Dylan Cozens posted the second-best year of his career in his first full season since being acquired from Buffalo.
While the Senators’ depth forwards may not have produced quite as much as Carolina’s, this is a much more offensively dangerous group than the one that potted just 243 goals last regular season en route to a first-round exit against Toronto. Among depth forwards, Claude Giroux, Michael Amadio, Fabian Zetterlund and Ridly Greig all chipped in at least 32 points.
There is not a ton of playoff experience for the Senators’ top forwards to draw from. In last year’s six-game loss to the Leafs, Tkachuk, Giroux and Stutzle were the only forwards to record more than three points. Batherson and Cozens were notably quiet with two apiece. If Ottawa is going to pull off the upset this time around, one of those two will need to be much more impactful than they were in 2025.
Defense
While the Hurricanes have bucked their narrative by improving offensively this season, they’ve done the same thing on the defensive side of the puck by not being quite as stingy as they normally are. Much of that can be explained away by stalwart Jaccob Slavin being limited to 39 games with an injury, but not all of it. Carolina is seventh-best in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 at 2.49, which represents strength, but the club had typically been a lock to finish in the top three.
K’Andre Miller has been a strong addition after a summer acquisition from the New York Rangers, and Sean Walker is another steady, reliable presence on the Carolina blue line. When healthy this season, Gostisbehere has brought immense offense from the back end with 50 points in 55 games. Rookie Alexander Nikishin had 33 points, including 11 goals, to go with strong analytics and a plus-18 rating. Veteran Jalen Chatfield has had his least impressive season during his time in Carolina, and he got banged up in one of the Canes’ final regular-season games.
Ottawa, on the other hand, continues to play like one of the best defensive teams in the league under head coach Travis Green. The Sens are second in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal suppression, allowing just 2.32 per 60 minutes. Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot may not be fully healthy in this series, but they represent a huge reason why many are picking an upset in this series. Neither of them measure up to Slavin defensively, but the Hurricanes don’t have a defenseman who impacts both sides of the ice the way this duo does.
Beyond them, Artem Zub provides strong defensive acumen and penalty-killing ability, while Ottawa’s own summer trade acquisition on the blueline, Jordan Spence, has played a massive role in taking this squad from good to great on the defensive end. Injuries to Chabot, Nick Jensen and Tyler Kleven allowed depth players to gain valuable experience, as Lassi Thomson, Dennis Gilbert, Cameron Crotty and Carter Yakemchuk have all gotten NHL ice time down the stretch.
Toss in the defensive contributions the Senators get from the forward line of Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins, and it’s easy to see why it is such a challenge to generate regular high-danger chances against this club.
Goaltending
Here’s the rub, for both of these teams, really, but especially for the Hurricanes. Frederik Andersen will likely get the nod in Game 1, though Brind’Amour refuses to tip his hand on the official starter choice. The veteran Andersen has struggled this regular season with an .874 SV% and -0.28 GSAA/60, but he’s the most playoff-tested option Carolina has. Contrary to popular belief, he’s acquitted himself quite well in the playoffs during his time in Raleigh. In his three playoff runs, he’s 19-12-0 with a .909 SV% and 0.16 GSAA/60. He hasn’t been the reason Carolina has been bounced, but he also has not been good enough to steal a series against the higher-end opponents he’s faced in the later rounds.
If Andersen falters early, Carolina has two other options in Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov. Bussi broke on to the scene this season, and he’s posted a .894 SV% and 0.18 GSAA/60. Solid goal support has allowed him to go 31-6-2, but he faltered after the Olympic break. His last two starts of the regular season were encouraging, as he stopped 50 of 53 shots between them. Brind’Amour rarely rides one goalie all the way through a run, so it’s far more likely than not Bussi plays at some point. Kochetkov has been limited to just nine games this year because of injury, and he was good for a .899 SV% and 0.32 GSAA/60 in his limited work. He provides the highest upside, but he hasn’t been in an NHL crease since Dec. 20, though he did make two abbreviated appearances in the AHL during a conditioning stint.
It’s been a noteworthy year for Linus Ullmark, who ended up posting a .891 SV% and 0.23 GSAA/60 to closely mirror Bussi’s overall body of work. But it’s been a chaotic year for the Swede, who took a leave of absence to address his mental health from late December to late January. After struggling in the first portion of the season, he bounced back considerably upon his return, at least based on traditional stats. From Jan. 31 on, he put up a .904 SV% but regressed to a 0.06 GSAA/60.
Ullmark has the potential to steal the series if he can recapture the form he had during his time with the Boston Bruins or even last season, but he hasn’t shown much of a sign that it’s in the cards this year. While with Boston, Ullmark got experience facing Carolina in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He got the nod in Games 1 and 2 in Raleigh, and they did not go well. Ullmark went 0-2 with a .860 SV% and -2.10 GSAA in the two games, forcing Boston to roll with Jeremy Swayman for the rest of the series, which went seven games and went to the Canes.
Injuries
The Hurricanes come into this playoff run as healthy as they’ve been for any of their previous tries for the Cup under Brind’Amour. All their regular skaters are good to go, though Logan Stankoven did miss Thursday’s practice with an illness. Kochetkov is healthy, but Brind’Amour told reporters Thursday that as of now, he’s not an option, likely due to all the missed action.
Ottawa just got a boost when Chabot returned from a wrist injury well before his projected timeline, meaning he’s likely playing through some pain. Defensemen Nick Jensen is out long-term, and Tyler Kleven is injured as of now, but could be an option for Green during this series.
Intangibles
There’s no question there’s some pressure on Carolina here. The teams that have had their number in the East, the Rangers and Florida Panthers, are not in the playoff field this year. The core is young enough and under contract for long enough that there’s nothing “Last Dance”-ish about this postseason, but the clock is ticking. We’ll see what sort of weight the opportunity in front of them exerts on the Canes, if any, based on how they come out of the gate playing on Saturday.
Normally the team that draws the No. 1 seed in the first round is in a true house money situation, but that doesn’t feel totally relevant to the Senators. This is a good team that, sure, has a tough matchup here. But an upset puts them in a series against Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, where they’d be favored to advance to the East final. Tack on the fact that Florida is likely coming right back for one of the playoff spots they’ll be fighting for next year, and even though this is a young, ascending team, a loss here would represent something of a missed opportunity.
X-Factor
Goaltending is too obviously the X-factor for further discussion, so let’s go with special teams. A tight whistle would play into Carolina’s hands with the stronger power play, but Ottawa’s penalty kill showed improvement at the end of the year. When the Hurricanes have lost series, it’s often been because the power play went completely dry. The Ehlers addition ensures they take the best version of their power play into this run, but until we see it not fail them over a longer run, it’s still worth pointing out as Carolina’s Achilles’ heel.
Series Prediction
This is a popular upset pick for a reason. The Senators are a very good team and a brutal draw for a team that earned the No. 1 seed over an 82-game grind. Ottawa can play with Carolina at 5-on-5, and the only ways this series becomes a runaway for the Hurricanes would be a complete collapse from Ullmark or a parade to the penalty box by the Sens. Those are both in play, but not necessarily likely.
Home ice advantage is huge for Carolina. In the past four years in the first round, the Hurricanes are 12-1 at the Lenovo Center and 8-0 in Games 1 and 2. The Senators will be hard-pressed to steal one of those first two games in Raleigh, but if they do, all bets are off.
Ottawa is on its way up as a contender in the Eastern Conference, but the Hurricanes are such an experienced squad that has addressed some of its scoring troubles and has a demonstrated track record of getting the job done in the early rounds. It won’t be easy, but Carolina stays alive in its latest bid to make it out of the East.
Hurricanes in seven games.
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