25 bold NHL predictions for 2026-27: The Hot Take O-Meter
The breathlessly anticipated 2026-27 NHL season is here after an offseason reshuffling that included some blockbuster trades, some blockbuster trade requests and some record-breaking contracts. How will the campaign play out?
It’s time to make another round of bold predictions – but with a twist this time. In the past, we’ve simply rolled them out as a randomized list and, if we’re being honest, not all predictions were created equal. It was bold last season when I (successfully) predicted a Quinn Hughes trade; it wasn’t exactly a home-run swing when I called the Carolina Hurricanes to defeat the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final, as much fun as it was to ace that call.
So this season? We grade the predictions on a scale. Introducing the Hot-Take-O-Meter.
COLD TAKES
Not exactly going out on a limb with these.
25. Porter Martone, already the Philadelphia Flyers’ best player, cruises to the Calder Trophy.
Martone debuted in the NHL with 10 points in nine regular-season games. The moment was not too big for him in the playoffs as a 19-year-old. He’s a frontline power forward already in Philly, and he’s a good bet to put up 70 points in his first full season. Fellow rookies Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Viggo Bjorck, Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov and Sergei Murashov will have strong debut years, too, but Martone feels like a veteran already, and that gives him the edge.
24. With continued elite play and a swelling win total on a stacked Washington Capitals team, Logan Thompson wins the Vezina Trophy.
Over the past five seasons combined, Thompson has been one of the NHL’s best all-around goalies – and he was arguably the best last season. No starting goaltender saved more goals above expected per 60. Thompson was the top goalie in the NHL relative to the difficulty of his workload. After sharing the net with Charlie Lindgren on close to a 50-50 split the season before last, Thompson pulled away last season to start 58 games. Thompson has already proven to be an elite netminder even with a mediocre team in front of him, and now the Capitals look like the NHL’s most improved franchise year over year. On top of his top-notch rate stats, Thompson could push for 40-plus victories this season. He checks every box as the ideal Vezina candidate for 2026-27.
23. The Boston Bruins’ weak defensive play catches up to them in a loaded Atlantic Division, and they miss the playoffs.
The Bruins made the playoffs because goaltender Jeremy Swayman and right winger David Pastrnak played at borderline MVP levels. Swayman’s performance in particular will be difficult to sustain if the Bruins continue defending as poorly as they did last season, when they had a bottom-six expected goal differential in the NHL. Not helping matters early on: No. 1 blueliner Charlie McAvoy beginning the season suspended for his slash on the Buffalo Sabres’ Zach Benson in the 2026 postseason. It’s “only” a six-game ban, but six games matter a lot in a division as tough as the Atlantic, and McAvoy’s absence could be the difference between making and missing the postseason.
22. Brent Burns breaks Phil Kessel’s ironman streak record, playing a 1,065th consecutive game.
Doug Jarvis held the ironman record for 36 years, but these days it changes hands like a combat-sport title belt. Keith Yandle set the new mark in 2022 only to be usurped by Phil Kessel less than a year later, and Kessel’s run is set to end at four years. Burns, 41, returns for a 23rd NHL season and sits 47 games back of Kessel’s record of 1,064 consecutive games played. Burns will play his 48th game of the season and break the ironman record Jan. 18, 2027 when the Avs host the Vancouver Canucks.
Cap Summary
Draft Picks
21. No expansion plans are announced for Texas or Atlanta as the NHL owners cool on the idea for now.
The NHL already cautioned a few weeks back that the arrival of a 33rd team, expected to be in Austin or Houston, Texas, was not a done deal. The Friedkin family would be committing at least $3.5 billion for it between the expansion fee and a new arena in either city, and deputy commissioner Bill Daly indicated to Daily Faceoff that there was “some concern” among owners over 33 or 34 teams further damaging every market’s Stanley Cup odds in a league that is already very difficult to win with 32 teams. Commissioner Gary Bettman said at the Board of Governors meetings last week that the league was still in “wait and see mode,” not actively chasing expansion but receiving unsolicited pitches. Reading between the lines, it doesn’t sound like anything is imminent, even with the Friedkins. Don’t bank on that changing during the 2026-27 calendar.
20. Alex Ovechkin retires from the NHL – for real this time – after the season.
One last ride for ‘Ovi’ may or may not yield a second Stanley Cup with a loaded Capitals squad. Also, he’ll easily reach the 11-goal mark this season, which will vault him past Wayne Gretzky for the most goals in NHL history including the playoffs at 1,017.
LUKEWARM TAKES
Not planting flags with gutsy calls per se, but none of these predictions is a lock to happen.
19. The first coach fired in 2026-27: Scott Arniel, Winnipeg Jets.
The Jets went from Presidents’ Trophy winners to out of the playoffs in consecutive seasons under Arniel. Regardless of what Connor Hellebuyck’s fate is, the organization still fashions itself as win-now, with veterans Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, Gabe Vilardi, Cole Perfetti and Neal Pionk signed long term. The Jets still have an expectation of success, then. Even if it isn’t Arniel’s fault, he could be sacrificed if the Jets stumble in October and want to hunt for a New Coach Bump.
18. The top names moved at the 2027 Trade Deadline: Alex DeBrincat and Erik Karlsson.
DeBrincat is a Michigan kid living his childhood dream, but he’s nine seasons into his career and has played in the playoffs once – six years ago. If the Detroit Red Wings remain rudderless, might DeBrincat inform them he wants to pursue a Cup? He’d fetch a significant return as a three-time 40-goal scorer.
The Pittsburgh Penguins, meanwhile, lost a lot of key personnel over the summer and, between a litany of preseason injuries and the unfortunate death of Andrei Kuzmenko’s father in a bear attack, they aren’t positioned for a strong start in 2026-27. If they fall out of the playoff hunt by mid-winter, pending UFA Karlsson, who has revived his career under coach Dan Muse, would be a hot commodity as a rental.
17. Zach Werenski decides Columbus is still home and signs a seven-year, $140-million extension after the season.
We know Werenski and Columbus Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell were doing damage control when they released statements July 1 walking back the notion he would be traded. But when he spoke to a small group of reporters at the Player Media Tour in Vegas earlier this month, Werenski went beyond merely trying to diffuse the situation.
“It’s tough, it’s extremely tough,” he told the group, which included Daily Faceoff. “You see your friends having success, and guys winning Cups, and you’re so happy for them, but you want that to be you, and you put so much work in and so many hours and time and in all this, and you want to be in those games and have a chance at it. There’s a lot of great players that will never win a Stanley Cup, but you want a crack at it. You want a chance to play for it.
“I want to do that in Columbus, I know how great the city is when we’re in the playoffs. I’ve seen it my first few years. I know I want to do it there. At the end of the day, you want to win. For me, the belief is high that we can do it in Columbus. In the last two years, we’ve just missed the playoffs. We have a lot of good young pieces. I have full trust in Don, and he’s going to make our team better along the way and get us to where we want to go. I look at Carolina as a great example. That core of guys spent however many years together, and they finally got over the hump and won it. That’s gotta feel really good. It’s got to feel good winning it in whatever capacity, but you put all that time in with one organization and you get the job done, that’s what I want to accomplish in Columbus, I want to do something like that. Hopefully I’m there for a long time, I don’t know what the next two years are going to bring out, I have two years left in my deal. But ideally we’re a playoff team and I’m in Columbus for a long time.”
He speaks like someone looking for every reason to stay, not go. As long as Columbus shows a pulse this season, I like Werenski, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, to recommit at just south of Cale Makar money. Landing Matthew Knies for a player who didn’t want to stay in Kirill Marchenko was a nice move for Waddell.
16. Lane Hutson delivers another elite season at both ends of the ice and captures his first Norris Trophy.
Few players in the NHL polarize fan bases like Hutson, but the idea that he’s a one-dimensional defenseman who will have his champions and detractors warring online in perpetuity is silly and reflects a bias against his lack of size. Hutson is not a nifty waterbug who lights up the scoresheet and does little in his own end. Hutson is an elite offensive player but was also an elite defensive player last season. He doesn’t halt opposing attackers with muscle, it’s true, but teams don’t get many chances when he’s on the ice. He ranked fourth among all defensemen in takeaways at 5-on-5 last season. Hutson already has a 66- and 78-point season to his name in his first two full years in the NHL. If he grows that point total again into the mid-80s and continues playing high-end defense, his Norris case will be undeniable.
15. The Jets trade Connor Hellebuyck before the calendar reaches November.
We’ve already seen the Buffalo Sabres have a double-injury scare with their goaltenders this preseason. The Carolina Hurricanes want to solve their Alexander Nikishin problem. Those happen to be the two teams I like most to secure a Hellebuyck trade. They’d be motivated, Carolina in particular with RFA Nikishin not playing, and the Jets should be too, as whatever current NHLers they receive in a Hellebuyck package could bolster a lineup in dire need of some talent.
14. Mike Babcock’s methods be damned, the Edmonton Oilers buy what he’s selling and win their division for the first time since 1986-87.
Regardless of what the public or we media types think, the Oilers’ players have trumpeted at every stop how much they like Babcock’s motivational tactics, so maybe he achieves buy-in for this season at least. The Pacific Division is thinner than ever – last year’s winner, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the third-place Anaheim Ducks pretty clearly got worse over the summer – and the Oilers still have the top-end talent to contend. They made a few prudent offseason additions, including signing underrated defenseman Ryan Shea and shoring up their goaltending (eventually) with Frederik Andersen and Devon Levi. With Matt Savoie also likely taking another step forward once healthy, the Oilers should push for a point total in the high 90s to the low 100s, which should be enough to take the Pacific.
13. The biggest step forward of any non-rookie this season: Jimmy Snuggerud, St. Louis Blues.
All the signs scream big year for Snuggerud. He carries a first-round draft pedigree and is already entrusted as first-liner, fresh off amassing 51 points in 70 games as a rookie. He also started breaking out last season at a juncture of the calendar when casual fans might have stopped paying attention. Snuggerud went bananas for 11 goals and 27 points in 25 games after the Olympic break, production that extrapolates to a 37-goal, 90-point pace in an 84-game season. He’s an integral part of the Blues’ future – and present.
12. Matthew Schaefer becomes the youngest NHL defenseman ever to score 30 goals in a season.
The youngest 30-goal scorer on the back end? Phil Housley, who did it in the 1983-84 season, during which he turned 20. Schaefer only just turned 19 a few weeks ago. As an 18-year-old, he tied Brian Leetch’s single-season rookie record for goals by a defenseman at 23. Schaefer is such a game-wrecking talent that he’ll avoid a sophomore slump and level up instead, like Macklin Celebrini did last season.
11. The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in a Round 1 matchup so violent that we see multiple suspensions and a PIM total worthy of a 1980s series.
Paul Maurice wasn’t kidding about the Tkachuks and Sam Bennett being candidates for jail. With Brady added to the Battle of Florida mix and Brandon Hagel likely to continue pushing the Panthers’ buttons like nobody else, it’ll get medieval in what I predict will be the Atlantic Division’s 2 vs. 3 matchup.
10. Dylan Larkin never takes the ice again as a Red Wing and is shipped out before the holiday break in December.
His injury provides a convenient smoke screen to keep him from what would surely be a hailstorm of home-crowd boos if he played for Detroit again minus the captain’s C. Some combination of the right contender having an injury that frees up cap space, or Detroit being bad enough to entertain picks and prospects and not just NHLers in a trade, creates the right conditions for the deal to happen.
9. After another disappointing season, the Chicago Blackhawks decide 4.5 years is more than enough runway for GM Kyle Davidson and fire him before the draft.
Maybe Davidson becomes the next Kevyn Adams: a GM who accumulates years’ worth of good young players but doesn’t oversee enough improvement at the NHL level to still be employed once all those players mature into winners. If the Hawks, who haven’t even had a .500 points percentage since 2019-20, don’t show any standings progress in what is quietly already Connor Bedard’s fourth NHL season, it might be time for a new roster architect.
HOT TAKES
OK, now we’re taking some chances.
8. Armed with a new $13.5-million AAV contract, Cutter Gauthier scores 50 goals.
Not only did Gauthier explode for 41 goals as a sophomore, but he should continue filling the net simply because he gets so many opportunities. Gauthier was second among all players in shots on goal per 60, first in individual shot attempts per 60 and seventh in individual scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play last season. Rather than being opportunistic, Gauthier ups his odds by buzzing the net with pucks like few others can. With Ducks’ depth depleted, we should also expect him to play quite a bit more than the 17:15 he averaged last season, increasing his chance volume even more.
7. Continuing a steady upward trajectory, the Utah Mammoth win the Central Division.
The Mammoth secured a potential long-term starting goalie with the Sebastian Cossa trade, they got deeper up the middle with the Trocheck acquisition and, on the UFA side of things, they complemented an already-deep forward group with Anders Lee, whose play-driving metrics remain fantastic even in his mid-30s. The Mammoth became a playoff team last season and appear to be evolving into a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender before our eyes. They’re already improved from 77 to 89 to 92 points in consecutive seasons, and we should see them hit triple digits this time, especially if rising star center Logan Cooley plays a full healthy year.
6. After losing in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Colorado Avalanche decide they need a new voice in the dressing room and fire coach Jared Bednar.
It already felt like the seat was lukewarm when the Presidents’ Trophy winners fizzled out with a sweep defeat to Vegas in the Western Conference Final. Even with the 2021-22 Stanley Cup victory in hand, the Avs and GM Joe Sakic may begin to feel like they’re burning too many prime years of Makar and Nathan MacKinnon. Could those circumstances make Bednar the scapegoat? He won’t be unemployed long if he gets pink-slipped.
5. Despite finishing last overall again, the Canucks get snaked on the Draft Lottery once more, falling to No. 2. The Jets win the top pick and select Landon DuPont.
It’s pretty much ordained that the Canucks (and Calgary Flames) will be terrible this season – on purpose. The Jets don’t necessarily want to be, but losing the best player in franchise history while coming off a playoff miss is too tough to recover from. Yet the gods will smile on them at the lottery and give their veteran group a new lease on life, just like we saw in Toronto last June.
4. Connor McDavid halts the latest “Will he leave?” discourse in its tracks on July 1, signing a four-year, $100-million extension to stay in Edmonton.
I’ve never really bought the “come home to Toronto” narrative with McDavid. As long as the Oilers show him they’re still a Stanley Cup threat, he stays. With the early projections of the 2028-29 cap at a whopping $127.5 million, the maximum AAV would be $25.5 million, so we’ll call McDavid’s new cap hit a discount at $25 million even.
PIPING-HOT TAKES
If I nail any of these, bow down to me as your king.
3. After the Toronto Maple Leafs miss the playoffs again, Auston Matthews tells management he’s ready to move on. He’s traded during 2027 NHL Draft week.
Don’t get me wrong. The Leafs will show plenty of positive progression in Year 1 of the John Chayka era. They’ll rise to the Eastern Conference playoff periphery. Their team speed and play driving will drastically improve. But the Atlantic’s top five is extremely tough to crack, so they’ll be inching toward a new era built around McKenna, Marchenko, William Nylander and Darren Raddysh, not Matthews. With a year left on his deal, he’ll decide not to wait for the retool to yield a full Stanley Cup contender team. And Chayka, who proved earlier this week he’s an absolute wild man on the trade front, will cash out the most purely talented player ever to wear the Maple Leaf.
2. Despite his improved physique, Matvei Michkov can’t get on the same page as Rick Tocchet, and Michkov ends up part of a blockbuster that sends Matthews to the Philadelphia Flyers.
A fitter Michkov should be faster and more dangerous as a scorer, but he’ll remain prone to bouts of inconsistency, which will continue to draw Tocchet’s ire. The Leo Carlsson offer sheet showed that Flyers GM Danny Briere is willing to spend massive money on a superstar center, and Matthews would accelerate the team’s timeline significantly. Meanwhile, the Leafs, who began fostering a Russian contingent with Marchenko and Sergei Bobrovsky, would buy low on a high-ceilinged talent while netting some other useful draft-pick capital.
THE STANLEY CUP TAKE
1. “Somehow, Palpatine returned”: The Panthers’ empire rises again, as they defeat the Mammoth in five games to secure a third Stanley Cup in four years.
Adding Brady Tkachuk and a healthy Aleksander Barkov to the top-nine forward group is just unfair. The Panthers’ steady D-corps still meets the Stanley Cup standard, and if Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid don’t cut it in net, GM Bill Zito has always proven willing to big-game hunt and plug roster holes. The Elbo Room victory laps in the summer will reach new heights with Brady joining Matthew as a teammate.
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