Five key ‘swing teams’ at the NHL’s 2025-26 Thanksgiving standings juncture
There’s a reason why we talk about U.S. Thanksgiving as a key checkpoint in the NHL season every year, why trade talk has seemingly heated up, why coaching changes often start happening around now: the theory is true. The late-November NHL standings are typically predictive of the NHL playoff picture.
Last season, the standings as of American Thanksgiving predicted 12 of the 16 eventual playoff participants, good for 75 percent. Updating the 10-year snapshot I published last season:
| Season | Playoff spots predicted | Accuracy rate |
| 2014-15 | 13 | 81.25% |
| 2015-16 | 12 | 75.00% |
| 2016-17 | 13 | 81.25% |
| 2017-18 | 12 | 75.00% |
| 2018-19 | 11 | 68.75% |
| 2019-20 | 13 | 81.25% |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 62.50% |
| 2022-23 | 13 | 81.25% |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 81.25% |
| 2024-25 | 12 | 75.00% |
That’s a 76.25 percent accuracy rate in the Thanksgiving Day standings predicting the playoff picture over the past decade.
It’s therefore a time for urgency among the teams milling about the playoff bubble right now. I call them the Swing Teams, as they could influence the 2025-26 season narrative by shaking their funks and becoming contenders or by dropping out of the race and selling off their assets later this season. Who are the key clubs to watch from here on out? Pay close attention to these franchises. Last year, I featured three Western Conference teams and two Eastern Conference teams in this space, but the focus shifts to the East this time because of its unprecedented parity. The worst record in the Conference, 16th place, is five points out of a playoff spot.
New York Islanders
Record: 13-9-2
Status: 4th in Metropolitan Division
Reason to watch: Has Matthew Schaefer turned them into a contender already?
Even though GM Mathieu Darche went out of his way to avoid the term “rebuild” over the summer, it sure felt like that’s what the Isles were doing. Hours before picking Schaefer first overall, they traded top-pair blueliner Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens for two additional picks in the first round plus checking forward Emil Heineman; that came a few months after previous GM Lou Lamoriello finished off his tenure by selling off veteran center Brock Nelson in a deal that secured prospect Cal Ritchie from the Colorado Avalanche.
It certainly seemed like the Isles were accepting the notion they’d move backward to go forward. It stood to reason pending 2026 UFAs such as their captain, left winger Anders Lee, and third-line center Jean Gabriel Pageau would be hot commodities to move at the Trade Deadline. But the 2025-26 Isles have had other plans so far. Schaefer, just 18, has been generationally incredible across the first seven weeks of his NHL career, establishing himself as a star already. Bo Horvat has torched opposing goalies for 14 goals in 25 games. Heineman looks like an absolute steal, sitting second on the team in goals while showcasing strong two-way ability. What if the Isles have already reloaded and are ready to push for a playoff spot while also having completely revamped their prospect crop? Maybe they hold onto their expiring veterans after all. It’s still early, but Isles fans have to be thrilled at the results so far this year.
New York Rangers
Record: 12-11-2
Status: 8th in Metropolitan Division
Reason to watch: Will their underlying numbers finally repay them in the standings?
The Broadway Blueshirts have improved under new head coach Mike Sullivan, honest. They’re top three in expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5. Only one team allows fewer scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5. The newly forged defensive pair of UFA signing Vladislav Gavrikov and Adam Fox has been the best and busiest in the NHL. But the Rangers just aren’t scoring, and they own the third-lowest points percentage in the Eastern Conference as a result.
It’s possible their good habits will get rewarded and pucks will start going in, especially now that center Vincent Trocheck is back healthy, potting five goals in his past eight games. But if the Rangers don’t start to ascend the standings soon…a decision on pending UFA left winger Artemi Panarin will creep up on GM Chris Drury. Will he hold a sweepstakes to secure a huge return for the Bread Man, who might be the most impactful forward available approaching the deadline? Last year, around this time, Drury got restless and started deconstructing his team, dealing Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko. How long until Drury decides his 2025-26 group isn’t playoff-caliber? On the other hand, a talented Ranger team playing structured hockey under Sullivan and armed with elite goaltender Igor Shesterkin could be dangerous if it squeaks into the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 11-6-5
Status: 5th in Metropolitan Division
Reason to watch: Does Kyle Dubas keep the band together for one final playoff push?
I fully expected the Pens to be one of the NHL’s worst teams, firmly in the NHL Draft Lottery hunt, ready to continue their tradition of picking a generational forward first overall once every 21 years. But Sidney Crosby continues to defy aging, Evgeni Malkin started his season strongly, all three Pens goalies have played well, and the Pens have had the league’s best all-around special teams under new head coach Dan Muse. What does it mean for Dubas if his team looks like it can compete? Does he owe it to Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang, the NHL’s first 20-season teammates, to give them one more shot at the postseason? Or would that simply repeat a pattern of a franchise setting itself back by refusing to accept it isn’t a Stanley Cup contender?
If the Pens slide out of the race, the vultures will circle Dubas asking about forwards Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell and defenseman Erik Karlsson. But is the fire sale off if the Pens still hold a playoff position by the Olympic break?
San Jose Sharks
Record: 11-10-3
Status: 5th in Pacific Division
Reason to watch: Has the rebuild reached phase 2?
Unlike the Isles and Pens, the Sharks accepted a tank identity several seasons back. Having drafted the likes of William Eklund, Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson and Michael Misa in the first round, among others, they’ve built up a critical mass of cornerstone prospects already. That means that, one of these years, they’ll start playing more competitive hockey and exiting the first stage of their rebuild. Is that time now? Celebrini looks like a bona fide superstar and might have forced his way onto Team Canada with his sizzling first two months of 2025-26. Yaroslav Askarov is starting to look like the game-changing goaltender he was always projected to be.
If the Sharks have genuinely arrived as a playoff threat, it changes the outlook for veterans such as John Klingberg and Alexander Wennberg, who were seemingly brought in just to be future trade assets for GM Mike Grier. Then again, the Sharks have the worst 5-on-5 expected goal share in the NHL and are tied for the fewest regulation wins, so their hot start looks like smoke and mirrors. It’ll be interesting to see if their play-driving struggles catch up to them. They didn’t even look like they were playing the same sport as the Colorado Avalanche in Wednesday night’s 6-0 defeat.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Record: 10-10-3
Status: 7th in Atlantic Division
Reason to watch: Potential coaching change & implications of a playoff miss
The Leafs have been genuinely bad this season. They’re a big, slow fossil of a hockey team, playing a style that may prove effective in the playoffs but that makes it very difficult to make the playoffs. Their play driving has been bad enough that we could actually call their record lucky so far this season. So does that mean head coach Craig Berube’s seat is hot? And will GM Brad Treliving shuffle his roster and trade underachieving defenseman Brandon Carlo?
It’s just too early to tell, as the Leafs do have an excuse. They’ve been absolutely decimated by injuries, playing one stretch earlier this month minus Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Carlo, Chris Tanev and Anthony Stolarz simultaneously. They’ve been bad, yes, but they’ve dressed a glorified AHL team many nights. If they get close to healthy and continue to struggle, it may be time to blow things up. But the Leafs could just as easily return to being an above-average team in a mercurial Eastern Conference. Few clubs have a wider range of outcomes between now and April.
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