According to the Numbers: Week 4 – Fantasy Hockey Pickups, Drops, Sell-Highs & Buy-Lows

Box scores tell you what happened. Underlying numbers tell you what’s going to happen. Each week in “According to the Numbers”, I dig into SportLogiq’s tracking data to find the players whose results don’t match their process: the waiver-wire adds who are better than their ownership suggests, the stars who are due for a breakout, and the hot starts that are about to cool off.

This week, we’ve got the NHL expected-goals leader sitting on half of Yahoo’s waiver wire, and a reigning power-play goals champion still searching for his first tally.

All stats via SportLogiq and are current through games played on Oct.19, 2026. Rostered percentages are from Yahoo.

Pickups

Mason McTavish, STL – C (52% Rostered)

The Stat: McTavish is 1st in ixG/GP (0.70)

McTavish was only drafted in 2% of Yahoo Standard Leagues, and has risen to 51% rostered after starting the season with nine points (5G / 4A) in his first eight games. If you’re in one of the 48% of leagues that he’s still on the waiver wire, you need to make sure you’re rushing to add him. The 2021 No.3 overall pick currently leads the NHL in ixG/GP (0.70) and is tied for 1st in Grade A Scoring Chances per game (1.13).

The key for McTavish is he’s generating quality looks at 5v5, not just on the PP. He’s 1st in 5v5 ixG/GP (0.50) and four of his five goals have come at 5v5. He’s doing an incredible job of getting to the high-danger areas, ranking 2nd in Slot Shots/GP (3.0) and Inner-Slot Shots/GP (1.9).

The usage has been all over the place, but if he starts playing 18+ minutes on a consistent basis, McTavish could be in for a big goal-scoring year. He’s more of a finisher than a playmaker, so the assist totals may be modest, but he’s currently pacing for 300+ SOG and 480+ shot attempts, both of which would shatter his previous career highs. Combined with the high-quality looks, a breakout season appears to be underway in St. Louis.

Zach Benson, BUF – LW (37% Rostered)

The Stat: Benson is last in the NHL in Goals Below Expected (−3.74)

Nine games into the season, Benson is still searching for his first goal. He heads into Tuesday’s game last in the NHL at 3.74 goals below expected, despite ranking 4th in inner-slot shots per game. His teammates have finished right in line with expectations while he’s on the ice (11 goals on 10.9 expected), so his six assists look legit and have kept his fantasy value afloat. The only thing missing is his own finishing, and that should come.

There’s a lot to like in the underlying profile, because he’s generating both high-quality looks and great volume. His ice time has jumped nearly four minutes per game (!!!), and his shot attempts have climbed from 2.98 to 4.56 per game. Only 2.0 of those are reaching the net per game so far, so there’s room for his shots on goal to grow as more attempts get through. The extra ice time has also made Benson a decent banger-league asset: he’s averaging 1.4 hits per game after averaging just 0.5 in his first three seasons.

Now’s the time to grab him, before the goals start coming and his rostered percentage jumps.

Viktor Arvidsson, DET – LW/RW (17% Rostered)

The Stat: Arvidsson is 5th in Grade A Chances per game

Arvidsson has long been a reliable Fantasy Hockey streaming option thanks to his great shot volume, but he’s trending towards being a season-long hold in Detroit. Arvidsson’s usage has spiked on a thin Red Wings depth chart, and he’s looking like the 30-goal scorer we saw in his prime. Averaging over 19 minutes per game, Arvidsson’s volume (2.6 SOG, 5.8 SA) should be sustainable, and a lot of his looks are high-quality. He sits 5th in the NHL in Grade A Scoring Chances per game and 20th in ixG/GP. All three of his goals have come on the power play, and he’s still looking for his first even-strength goal despite 1.33 ixG at 5v5.

Arvidsson has never been an elite source of assists, but the Red Wings have scored 3.65 goals below expected with him on the ice this season, the 12th-worst mark in the NHL. He’s owed about two assists (on 66.67 IPP since 2024) and when his 6.3 on-ice SH% turns positive, he should be a 30-30 type player with good shot volume and solid power-play production, a multi-category scoring winger still available in 83% of leagues.

Buy-Lows

Wyatt Johnston, DAL – C (99% Rostered)

The Stat: Johnston has 0 goals on 2.89 ixG, the 3rd-worst goals vs. expected in the NHL

Johnston is still looking for his first goal through six games, which is a strange sight for a player coming off a 45-goal season. The process is as good as ever: he ranks 15th in the NHL in ixG per game (0.48) and 4th in slot shot attempts per game (4.7). He isn’t settling for the outside, either. 82% of his shot attempts have come from the slot.

The power play should be the first place things turn around. He’s averaging 4:05 of PP time per game and ranks 10th in the NHL in PP ixG per game, but he has zero goals on 1.48 expected. Johnston led the NHL with 27 power-play goals a season ago, so you have to believe the goals will start piling up once the Stars’ PP% improves. They were 2nd in the NHL at 28.6% last year, but sit 24th (15.0%) so far this season. If the Johnston manager in your league is frustrated, now’s the time to send an offer. The goals are coming.

Juraj Slafkovsky, MTL – LW (96% Rostered)

The Stat: Slafkovsky ranks 3rd in the NHL in PP ixG per game (0.32)

Slafkovsky has just one goal on 3.83 ixG, the 4th-worst goals vs. expected in the NHL, and almost all of the bad luck has come on the power play. He’s generated 2.58 expected goals and five Grade A chances on the PP but hasn’t scored a power-play goal yet. Only two players in the league are generating more PP ixG per game. That’s a big deal for a player who scored 15 of his 30 goals on the power play last season.

The Canadiens have also scored 3.58 goals below expected with him on the ice, the 13th-worst mark in the NHL, so his assists should rise too. The one concern is that he’s not generating nearly the same quality at 5v5 (0.08 ixG per game — 284th among forwards). Just a third of his attempts have come from the slot, so his 5v5 scoring may stay streaky. But with a PP1 role this productive, he’s a great buy-low.

Tomas Hertl, VGK – C (77% Rostered)

The Stat: Hertl leads the NHL in total ixG (5.71), inner-slot shots per game (2.2), and PP ixG per game (0.42)

Hertl has four goals in 10 games, a perfectly respectable total, but he could easily have twice as many. Nobody in the league is generating more expected goals, and nobody is getting to the inner slot more often. 82% of his shot attempts come from the slot, and he ranks 4th in Grade A chances per game.

The Vegas power play is where he really separates. He’s playing 4:22 per game on the PP and leads the NHL in PP ixG per game, but has three PP goals on 4.17 expected. That’s not a hot start, either: Hertl ranked 3rd in the NHL in PP ixG last season, so he’s been one of the league’s most dangerous power-play weapons for a while now. He’s also averaging 2.3 hits per game, which makes him a nice multi-category piece in banger leagues. He’s worth sending trade offers for, because the manager in your league may not know what they have.

Quinton Byfield, LAK – C (47% Rostered)

The Stat: 14th in Offence-Generating Plays per game

It’s been a nightmare start for the Kings, who have yet to win a game and rank 2nd-worst in the NHL at 2.00 goals per game. So it’s no surprise that Byfield has started slowly, with just two points (1G / 1A) in his first six games. But he could be an ultra buy-low or waiver-wire scoop. He ranks 14th in the NHL in offence-generating plays per game, and the Kings have scored 4.1 goals below expected with him on the ice, the 2nd-worst mark in the league per game. Los Angeles won’t keep shooting 5.1% with Byfield on the ice, and given his 60.8% IPP since 2024, he’s owed at least two assists.

His assists will bounce back, but his ceiling depends on the goal-scoring. So far, his 0.24 ixG per game (outside the top 130) isn’t encouraging, but his 21:03 ATOI and 5.2 shot attempts per game are. That volume has him flirting with 200 shots for the first time in his career. It’s hard to imagine after this start, but if the shooting percentage cooperates, there’s still 30-goal, 40-assist upside here.

Sell-Highs

Artturi Lehkonen, COL – LW (75% Rostered)

The Stat: Lehkonen is 6.94 goals above expected on-ice, the 7th-highest mark in the NHL

Lehkonen has six goals in nine games, but he’s done it on just 12 shots on goal: a 50% shooting percentage. He’s 2.92 goals above expected individually (7th-highest), and the Avalanche have scored 17 goals with him on the ice against 10.1 expected. Two of his goals came on the power play, where he plays just 1:47 per game and has 0.59 expected goals.

To his credit, his shot selection is excellent. 92% of his attempts come from the slot, and he ranks 15th in inner-slot shots per game. But 1.3 shots per game isn’t enough volume to sustain this pace, and his secondary PP role caps his ceiling. Treat him as a sell-high candidate: if someone in your league values him like a top-line winger, cash in.

Carter Verhaeghe, FLA – C (49% Rostered)

The Stat: Verhaeghe leads the NHL in goals above expected: 6 goals on 1.96 ixG

Verhaeghe has six goals in nine games, and his rostered percentage has climbed as a result, but nothing in the underlying profile supports it. He’s scored on 37.5% of his shots (6 goals on 16 SOG) and ranks 174th in ixG per game. 63% of his shot attempts come from outside the slot, and four of his six goals have come at 5v5 on just 1.26 expected.

It’s not just his own shooting, either. The Panthers have scored 20 goals with him on the ice against 12.0 expected, the 6th-highest on-ice goals above expected in the NHL. He’s a fine player on a good team, but this is a classic hot streak. If you picked him up, he’s the perfect secondary piece in a trade offer right now.

Panic Meter

Lucas Raymond, DET – LW (89% Rostered)

The Stat: Raymond ranks 175th in ixG per game (0.22)

Panic Meter: 🟡 Hold

Raymond is still looking for his first goal through eight games, and unlike Johnston or Benson, he isn’t getting unlucky. He’s 1.73 goals below expected, but the real issue is that he isn’t generating chances: he ranks 222nd in Grade A chances per game and 240th in inner-slot shots per game. 42% of his shot attempts are coming from outside the slot.

The Red Wings are also controlling just 46% of the expected goals at 5v5 with him on the ice, which ranks 361st. There’s still some value here. He’s averaging over 20 minutes and 4.5 PP minutes per game, and has three PP assists, so the points should come in leagues that reward playmaking. But if you drafted him as a 30-goal winger, this start is a real warning sign, not just bad luck.

Alex Ovechkin, WSH – LW (82% Rostered)

The Stat: Ovechkin ranks 386th in ixG per game (0.08)

Panic Meter: 🔴 Format-dependent Drop

The underlying numbers paint a grim picture for Ovechkin to start the season. He’s averaging 13:56 of ice time per game and has just 11 shots on goal in eight games. Even the power play, the bread and butter of his career production, hasn’t helped. He’s getting looks in his spot, but only two of his 11 PP shot attempts have reached the net. His 0.12 PP ixG ranks 240th in the NHL.

The Capitals are also getting outplayed when he’s on the ice, controlling just 39% of the expected goals at 5v5 (466th). His four points have come with some help, too: Washington is 2.83 goals above expected with him on the ice. At this stage of his career, it’s going to be difficult for Ovechkin to carve out a meaningful 5v5 role on a deep depth chart. In shallow, standard leagues, he’s droppable. Keep him only in deep or banger formats, where the 11 hits still help.

Robert Thomas, STL – C (80% Rostered)

The Stat: Thomas has zero Grade A scoring chances through eight games

Panic Meter: 🟠 Reluctant Hold

Thomas has just one goal and four points through eight games, and his lack of individual scoring chances is becoming a concern. He’s managed just nine shots on goal, ranks 365th in ixG per game (0.09), and has yet to generate a single Grade A scoring chance. For context, McTavish is averaging 0.70 ixG per game. Thomas has 0.75 expected goals all season.

Of course, Thomas has always been more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, and that part of his game hasn’t disappeared. He ranks 58th in offence-generating plays per game, but even his assist production has been underwhelming, despite the Blues scoring 2.49 goals above expected with him on the ice. It might not get much better, either. St. Louis is controlling just 46% of the expected goals at 5v5 with Thomas on the ice this season, and he has yet to register a power-play point.

There’s still enough playmaking upside to justify holding Thomas in points leagues, but don’t expect much goal or shot production. In leagues that reward shots on goal, he’s becoming an increasingly difficult roster spot to justify.