An audit of our bold predictions for the 2023-24 NHL season

Making preseason NHL predictions is a lot like throwing darts at your local watering hole on Tuesday nights. There will be the rare bullseye, many more misses, and some shots that just make you look plain drunk.

Every season, there are at least a few things that happen that almost no one saw coming – like the Vancouver Canucks challenging for a Pacific Division title or Zach Hyman scoring 54 goals. With just a few days left on the regular season slate, it’s time to look back, audit our 32 bold predictions from October and add up all the scores:

1. Connor Bedard will become the first rookie since Sidney Crosby in 2005-06 to net 100 points in a season. It can be done, even for an 18-year-old on a bad team. Crosby paced Pittsburgh with 102 in a dreadful year for the Penguins, who finished in 29th place with 58 points. Believe it. Bedard Mania is here for the Blackhawks.

Verdict: This one always had the likelihood to look foolish, but part of me still wonders what it might’ve looked like if Bedard didn’t miss 40 days with the fractured jaw. He started the season with 32 points in 34 games and had an outside shot. Taylor Hall’s season-ending injury and Corey Perry’s departure certainly didn’t help.

2. The other Connor: McDavid will be the first player to score 60 goals in back-to-back seasons since Pavel Bure in 1992-93 and 1993-94. With 163 points, McDavid will become the third-fastest player in NHL history to 1,000 career points (less than 651 GP) – with only Wayne Gretzky (424) and Mario Lemieux (513) faster. That results in another Awards sweep: Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay, Rocket Richard and Art Ross as McDavid yearns for team hardware.

Verdict: McDavid’s goal scoring production being cut in half was definitely not on my bingo card. Not sure McDavid or I have any explanation for it, either.

3. The Florida Panthers will be the third Stanley Cup finalist in the last four seasons to miss the playoffs the following season. With a thin defense corps, it’s going to be a slog trying to make it through until Dec. 15, when Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour are projected to return. The Stars (2021) and Habs (2022) also nursed the Final hangover.

Verdict: Woof. This one was BRUTAL. A few Panthers people got a kick out of it, too, knowing their defense was going to keep them afloat. You could make the argument the Cats are the beasts of the East going into playoffs.

4. With the Cats out of the mix, Sam Reinhart will be the big trade chip ahead of the NHL’s 2024 trade deadline on March 8. It’s not that Florida doesn’t want to keep Reinhart. After back-to-back 30-goal seasons, he’s going to be expensive on a team that needs better salary cap balance between forward and defense – and is in desperate need of draft capital.

Verdict: If you thought the last one was bad, just wait until I tell you that Reinhart scored 55 goals. And I can’t envision a path in which Florida doesn’t re-sign him. This shouldn’t be complicated.

5. Mike Babcock will sign an endorsement deal with Huawei smartphones. Too soon?

Verdict: Biggest win on the card. One of the few legitimately funny things I’ve come up with in years.

6. Counting on six players to hit the 50-goal plateau: McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Tage Thompson, Auston Matthews and Cole Caufield. Yep, the Canadiens’ 5-foot-7 sniper will be Montreal’s first 50-goal scorer since Stephane Richer way back in 1989-90. Caufield scored at a 46-goal pace before requiring shoulder surgery, but he’s healthy and ready to start his $63 million contract in style.

Verdict: OK, so as many as seven players still have a shot to hit 50 goals. But only one of the ones I named. [Homer Simpson Hides In Bush .GIF]

7. Incoming New York Rangers coach Peter Laviolette will be the 7th coach in NHL history to hit 800 victories. He needs 48 wins to get there, which means another 100-point season for the Broadway Blueshirts.

Verdict: Boom. ‘Lavi’ won’t get much Jack Adams buzz, but given the way he’s cleaned up the Rangers’ neutral zone and more, he deserves a lot of credit.

8. Patrick Kane will sign with his hometown Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo has methodically built their roster, avoiding adding most any vet who will get in the way of their young players. Kane is not just any vet, and there is room on the right side. He looks great in his rehab from hip resurfacing surgery.

Verdict: The Sabres were in it until the bitter end, unlike their season, which was over in November.

9. Sidney Crosby will add to his immaculate collection with the first Selke Trophy of his career. Sid has always been recognized as a complete player, but his previous best finish in Selke voting was fourth (2018-19). He appears to be dialed in and ready to push the Pens back into the postseason after missing for the first time since 2006.

Verdict: This is still on the table. He probably won’t win, but I believe Crosby should be in consideration to add to his stacked trophy case with something different.

10. Betano.ca Stone Cold Mortal Lock: Vancouver Canucks over 88.5 points.

Verdict: Yes, indeed, I was an early Canucks adopter. I’d be lying if I said I thought they’d win the division though.

11. Erik Karlsson’s point total this season as a Pittsburgh Penguin: 79. It’s a regression from 101 points last year, yes, but there’s no way Karlsson can play with the same risk profile as he did last season on a lost San Jose Sharks team where he was their only engine.

Verdict: Karlsson didn’t hit his jersey number (65) in points this year, but that was somewhat predictable. The Penguins never needed another 100-point defenseman.

12. Edmonton coach Jay Woodcroft will take home the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year following the Oilers’ best regular season since the 1980s. Not bold enough for you? History dictates coaches of teams with the top players are usually penalized; the award typically goes to clubs who’ve made vast turnarounds. Remember when the Oilers were out of a playoff spot when Woodcroft took over on Feb. 10, 2022?

Verdict: [Face palms]

13. There will be 13 skaters in the 100-point club this season: McDavid, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov, Nathan McKinnon, Jason Robertson, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikko Rantanen, Elias Petersson, plus newcomers Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Roope Hintz and Bedard. Yes, it’s Hintz who makes the biggest leap from 75 to the century mark, as the most underappreciated star in the league.

Verdict: Damn, this was pretty close. Here’s one of the amazing facets of this season: With three days left to play, 18 skaters have posted point totals that would’ve won the Art Ross over Jamie Benn (87 points) in 2015.

14. Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The NHL will announce in April that the Arizona Coyotes are relocating to Houston for the 2024-25 season. Commissioner Gary Bettman seemed to signal February is a looming deadline for the Coyotes to announce arena plans. They can’t stay at Mullett Arena forever, and Houston just upgraded its ice plant in Toyota Center as part of a $30 million renovation. Phoenix will then rise to the top of expansion possibilities – as there is no doubt the NHL loves a market that needs a fresh start.

Verdict: Right team, right course of action, wrong city.

15. Eastern Conference Playoff Teams: Toronto, Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, Carolina, New York Rangers. Wild Card: Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.

Verdict: 5 of 8, with the potential to be 6-for-8 if the Pens can pull off a miracle.

16. Western Conference Playoff Teams: Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Edmonton, Vegas, Los Angeles. Wild Card: Calgary and Vancouver.

Verdict: 6 of 8. Can’t believe I was so hard on Winnipeg.

17. Yes, that means the Seattle Kraken will miss the Stanley Cup playoffs one season after getting within one win of the Western Conference Final last spring. Matty Beniers is just coming into his own but the balanced Kraken lineup just seems to be missing a real game breaker.

Verdict: This was not rocket science and does not deserve a pat on the back.

18. Looking for a dark horse Calder Trophy candidate? If you think there’s a chance Connor Bedard and Logan Cooley will cancel each other out, consider Sabres goalie Devon Levi (+900 at Betano.ca). It worked out pretty well for Buffalo’s last rookie netminder that completely skipped the AHL. Tom Barrasso is being inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in a few weeks.

Verdict: I award you no points and may god have mercy on your soul.

19. After some back and forth, Steven Stamkos will sign a three-year extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning next spring. This one won’t be about money, as Stamkos finds a reasonable number to keep him a Bolt through age 37. GM Julien BriseBois needs to know the Lightning can continue to compete – and he’ll get that answer this season once Andrei Vasilevskiy is healthy.

Verdict: Still believe this happens.

20. Thatcher Demko will become the first Vancouver Canuck to capture the Vezina Trophy. You can almost directly correlate Demko’s success to his health; when Demko is feeling good, there are few better. His .920 save percentage in 16 games to close out last season is proof and this summer was his first pain free offseason of training in a bit. Look out.

Verdict: Worthy try. Demko should be a finalist.

21. Betano.ca Stone Cold Mortal Lock: Buffalo Sabres to finish with more points than New York Islanders (-115).

Verdict: If it was a mortal lock, I am dead.

22. With a franchise-best regular season and trip to the Eastern Conference Final, first year Toronto Maple Leafs manager Brad Treliving will win the Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award. Treliving essentially swapped Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Matthew Knies for Michael Bunting, Denis Malgin and Pierre Engvall. And locked up Auston Matthews. All wins.

Verdict: Time was kind to Treliving with the Bertuzzi and Domi signings. Not so much on Klingberg but he received a get-out-of-jail-free card via LTIR. Not GM of the Year worthy, but not bad.

23. Karlsson will pass the Norris Trophy back to Colorado’s Cale Makar for his second win in three seasons. There probably isn’t much debate that Makar was the best all-around defenseman last year, but he missed more than a quarter of the season. He was on-pace for 91 points over a full campaign and averaged nearly 30 minutes per night for chunks of the year. You can still get Makar for the Norris at plus money on Betano.

Verdict: The Norris is reserved for Quinn Hughes this season.

24. Jonathan Drouin will be the NHL’s unofficial Comeback Player of the Year. The last few seasons were a slog in Montreal since Drouin shared in April 2021 that he needed to take leave for mental health reasons. He’s got a fresh start now, he’s flying, and he’s reunited with junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It’d be an incredible story.

Verdict: Bullseye.

25. The Philadelphia Flyers will win the 2024 Draft Lottery. They’ll come by it honestly, without tanking on a team with John Tortorella’s work ethic. There is no clear-cut No. 1 pick this year, with Macklin Celebrini and Cole Eiserman atop Steven Ellis’ early board.  (FWIW: We correctly predicted last year that the Blackhawks would win the Bedard sweepstakes.)

Verdict: Yikes. Have to think there will be some stomachs turning in South Philadelphia this week if the Flyers fail to make the playoffs and also do not have the ability to win the Draft Lottery. Culture was built, but that’s tough.

26. Best point per dollar value this season: Blake Wheeler on Broadway. After his buyout in Winnipeg, Wheeler signed for just an $800,000 cap hit on July 1. He’s coming off a 55-point season and has plenty of game left at age 37 as he chases that elusive Stanley Cup.

Verdict: Wheeler started slow with no points in 10 games. He started to find his rhythm a little bit, but was declared out for the season on Feb. 15. According to our friends at CapFriendly, the best point-per-dollar this year (non-ELC) ended up being Colorado’s Jonathan Drouin at $14,732 per point (56 at $825,000). Drouin also had the second-best goal-per-dollar rate this year to Arizona’s Michael Carcone.

27. He won’t generate the headlines or gargantuan return, but teams are already clamoring for Washington Capitals center Nic Dowd as a low-key trade deadline target. Cup Contenders see Dowd, a complete fourth line center who does everything well, as an affordable player with term on his contract who can be a difference maker.

Verdict: This was true. The Caps decided to hang on, which is why Dowd scoring the emotional empty-netter to seal Monday’s season-saving win over the Bruins had to feel extra sweet.

28. After 35 years and three Stanley Cups, this will be Lou Lamoriello’s last season as an NHL general manager. The NHL’s only octogenarian GM, sharp as ever, will celebrate his 81st birthday on Oct. 21. But the New York Islanders will fall short of the playoffs this season and after doubling and tripling down on this roster, change is inevitable.

Verdict: No sign that is happening, not that we’d get one. Lamoriello seems as spry as ever, buoyed now by another playoff appearance after bringing in Patrick Roy as coach.

29. Marc-Andre Fleury will become just the fourth goaltender in NHL history to play 1,000 games this season. That’s not bold: He’s only 15 away. But he’ll be the last netminder to ever hit 1,000. The days of starting well north of 60 games per season are over. It will take more than 18 years of averaging 55 starts to get there, and that’s difficult to do. Andrei Vasilevskiy will have to play through his 41-year-old season at his current pace, and as his injury this season reminds us, that isn’t easy.

Verdict: Now this is a stone cold mortal lock.

30. The Great Eight will need 30 goals in 2024-25 to tie the Great One’s all-time record of 894. Alex Ovechkin enters this season 72 back of Wayne Gretzky. That means he’ll notch 42 this year and create a Mark McGwire-like following next year as he travels in search of one of hockey’s great records.

Verdict: Good god, this looked awful at the All-Star break. It’s turned around in a hurry. Ovie ended up with his 19th consecutive 30-goal season, which leaves him 42 short of Gretzky’s all-time mark.

31. It’s a second straight Sun Belt Stanley Cup Final: the Carolina Hurricanes will square off with the Dallas Stars. Rod Brind’Amour has the Canes poised for more playoff success, as they look to make waves in a year where changes may be on the horizon with Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, and Teuvo Teravainen all pending UFAs.

Verdict: Could be in the cards!

32. The Dallas Stars will party like it’s 1999, breaking through with a battle-tested roster that is built for playoff success with their first Stanley Cup win since the Ken Hitchcock era. They’ve got it all: the most mobile back end in the league, a lethal scoring punch, depth at every position and pedigreed goaltender with series-stealing capability.

Verdict: Feel pretty, pretty, pretty good about my preseason pick. Or at least as good as one can with a batting average like this one.

Bring on the playoffs.

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